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How to Fix the Worst Ever Year for 401k Balances

This year is on pace to be the worst in history for the standard 401k investment strategy. A balanced portfolio of stock and bond index funds has performed terribly in 2022. Workers who get their third-quarter 401k statements will be shocked.

Today, let’s discuss why this happened and how to do better…

The traditional 60/40 portfolio has 60% in stock index funds and 40% in bond index funds. The bond funds are supposed to be less volatile and make up for some of the stock market losses during bear markets. But that strategy hasn’t worked out this year: so far in 2022, stocks are down 23%, the iShares 7-10 Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) is down 17%, and investment-grade corporate bonds have fallen by 22%.

Put these negative returns together, and never in history has a traditional stock and bond balanced portfolio lost so much money. Most of us understand that stocks go through bull markets and bear markets. What’s harder to grasp is how investment grade and Treasury bonds can lose 20% of their value.

Bonds are interest-paying instruments that pay off a face value when they mature. The expected return should be the yield to maturity in effect when a bond is purchased. The problem comes from how bonds were viewed through 30 years of falling interest rates.

Bond prices move inversely to interest rates. This relationship means when rates are falling, bond prices are supposed to go up. The long period of falling interest rates trained money managers to count on capital gains from bond funds in addition to interest income. As interest rates moved close to zero, financial advisors continued to depend on bond price appreciation from the recommended bond funds.

A return to rising, and quickly rising, interest rates blew up bond fund investing. It’s a direct, mathematical correlation between bond fund prices and interest rates. Since bond funds don’t hold bonds to maturity, bond fund share prices go down and stay down when interest rates go up.

Bond fund prices are different from stock prices. Share prices can and do recover from a market decline. Bond fund share prices will only go up if interest rates fall, and the nature of bond funds (vs. owning bonds directly) makes recovery much less than the magnitude of the decline. And that’s assuming interest rates go down.

I hope you get the idea that index-tracking bond funds are not good for your wealth or your 401k account value. That said, now that interest rates have gone up, investing in fixed income securities makes sense in a balanced portfolio. You want to invest in securities with a fixed maturity that will pay a face value when they mature. Here are a few ideas…

Buy individual bonds. You can easily buy Treasury Bills and Notes through your brokerage account. Six-month T-bills yield above 4.3%, and these bonds are very liquid. Talk to your broker about municipal bonds if you are in a high tax bracket.

Certificates of Deposit (CDs) pay similar yields. You will likely find better CD rates through your stockbroker than from your local bank.

Series I Savings Bonds pay based on the rate of inflation and currently yield close to 10%. I Bonds have some limits and restrictions, but if you have some cash to sock away, the yield is fantastic.

The Invesco BulletShares series of bond ETFs solves the bond fund problem. Each of these ETFs own bonds that mature in a specific year. These funds allow investors to set up an old-fashioned bond ladder, an excellent tactic to maximize investment income and liquidity.

In my Dividend Hunter service, I have provided in-depth information on the BulletShares features and how to use them in a portfolio. See below for how to join.
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Silver And Palladium Update: False Hope

The price action in the silver futures has given a false hope to bulls this month.
The largest volume support (orange) has offered a solid support for the silver futures price lately. It is located between $17.4 and $18.2. The price has tested it three times already and failed to break it down.
Source: TradingView
The RSI has built a Bullish Divergence during the second touchdown at the end of the summer. The reaction was an imminent reversal to the upside. It was promising price action for the bulls as the futures price soared from $17.4 up to $21.3 by the start of this month to book the gain of almost four bucks (22% growth).

Afterwards, the same indicator has failed to break above the 50 barrier in spite of a strong impulse and so did the price rally. It stopped more than half dollar below the moving average (purple).
The price dropped back to the largest volume support after above mentioned failure but bounced then. It has managed to score more than one dollar from the latest valley of $18. This puts the silver futures between the hammer ($21.9, moving average resistance) and the anvil ($18, volume support).
The chart structure of the recent rally looks corrective. This means that the weakness of the price should resume. The next support is located at the following volume area of $15.8.
There are no other significant levels to catch the “falling knife” of silver except the “Flash-Crash” valley in $11.6. The drop to the latter could build a larger corrective structure visible on a bigger map.
The invalidation of the bearish outlook would come with the breakup of the moving average above $21.9.
Last time, your most popular answer was that silver futures would stop at $16. The next bid was bullish. None of the bets have played out as yet.

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Last time I updated the palladium chart in January, I highlighted two scenarios for you as the technical outlook (blue) was in contradiction with the fundamental outlook (red). I put the old chart below to refresh your memory.
Source: TradingView
The blue scenario is about to be eliminated as the disastrous pattern I spotted for you below could reverse the technical outlook down to match with a red bearish path.
Source: TradingView
The shallow advance of the price has failed to overcome the double resistance of the volume barrier and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level around $2,400 at the beginning of the month.

Overall, the move to the upside from June to October resembles the sideways consolidation after a huge drop from the all-time high of $3,425. These elements have jointly built a well-known Bear Flag pattern (purple). The price is sitting right on the flag’s support. Watch the breakdown of it for a confirmation of the pattern.
The flag’s target aims at $320. To find this target, I subtracted the height of the flag pole from the flag’s support. It means a huge collapse of the price as it should lose more than 80% of its current value. Ouch!
There is the largest volume support area between $1,560 and $1,300 to be broken first. The next support is located at $815 in the valley of Y2018.
The majority of readers (65% vs. 35%) chose the bullish outlook for palladium last time.

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Intelligent trades!
Aibek BurabayevINO.com Contributor
Disclosure: This contributor has no positions in any stocks mentioned in this article. This article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. This contributor is not receiving compensation (other than from INO.com) for their opinion.

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One Penny Stock Posting Extraordinary Gains

The Fed’s persistent hawkish stance to tame the stubborn inflation and the consequent increase in recession fears have led the widely-followed stock indices to witness massive sell-offs this year.
While most well-known names in the market got caught in the brutal sell-off, penny stock Pulse Biosciences (PLSE) witnessed a solid uptrend, gaining 54.3% over the past month and 11.9% over the past three months.
Source: MarketClub
PLSE operates as a novel bioelectric medicine company. It provides CellFX System, a tunable, software-enabled, and console-based platform used to treat various medical conditions using its Nano Pulse Stimulation technology.

The medical therapy company delivered impressive results for the second quarter that ended June 30, 2022. During the quarter, the company transitioned its commercial focus toward utilizing CellFX Systems in a select group of dermatology clinics. In addition, the company completed two commercial sales of CellFX Systems.
Furthermore, PLSE is expanding strategic opportunities within healthcare and anticipates a concentrated focus on the oncology, gastroenterology, and cardiac sectors.
PLSE is trading above its 50-day moving average of $1.73, indicating an uptrend. While the company is yet to turn profitable, Wall Street expects its loss to decline in the upcoming quarters, which could help the stock grab some more investor attention and maintain its momentum.
In terms of its forward EV/Sales, PLSE is trading at 73.74x compared to the industry average of 3.81x. The stock’s forward Price/Sales of 72.31x compares to the industry average of 4.25x.

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Here is what could influence PLSE’s performance in the upcoming months:
Recent Positive Developments
On October 6, PLSE announced positive clinical data from an FDA-approved Investigational Device Exempt treatment and study on the use of Nano-Pulse Stimulation (NPS) procedure for low-risk basal cell carcinoma (BCC) lesions.Here is what Kevin Danahy, President and Chief Executive Officer of Pulse Biosciences, said:

In September, PLSE received FDA 510(k) clearance for its CellFX System to treat sebaceous hyperplasia in patients with Fitzpatrick skin types I-III. The FDA clearance enables the company to support clinics in marketing and promoting CellFX treatments, specifically for patients with sebaceous hyperplasia.
Impressive Recent Financials
In the fiscal second quarter (ended June 2022), PLSE’s revenues totaled $265,000, including System revenue of $209,000 and Cycle Units revenue of $56,000.
The company’s non-GAAP operating expenses declined 21% year-over-year. Its non-GAAP net loss narrowed to $11.9 million from $12.6 million in the year-ago quarter.
Favorable Analyst Estimates
Analysts expect PLSE’s revenue for the fiscal 2023 first quarter (ending March 31) to come in at $800,000, indicating an increase of 80.2% from the prior-year period. The consensus revenue estimate of $3.89 million for fiscal 2023 indicates a 250.7% year-over-year improvement. Also, Wall Street expects the company’s loss to narrow by 6.3% for the quarter that ended September 2022 and 22.8% for the full year.
Technical Indicators Show Promise
According to MarketClub’s Trade Triangles, the long-term trend for PLSE has been UP since October 3, 2022, and its intermediate-term trend has been UP since September 12, 2022. However, the stock’s short-term trend has been DOWN since October 19, 2022.
The Trade Triangles are our proprietary indicators, comprised of weighted factors that include (but are not necessarily limited to) price change, percentage change, moving averages, and new highs/lows. The Trade Triangles point in the direction of short-term, intermediate, and long-term trends, looking for periods of alignment and, therefore, intense swings in price.

In terms of the Chart Analysis Score, another MarketClub proprietary tool, PLSE scored +75 on a scale from -100 (strong downtrend) to +100 (strong uptrend), indicating Bull Market Weakness. While PLSE shows signs of short-term weakness, it remains in the confines of a long-term uptrend.

The Chart Analysis Score measures trend strength and direction based on five different timing thresholds. This tool considers intraday price action; new daily, weekly, and monthly highs and lows; and moving averages.
Click here to see the latest Score and Signals for PLSE.
What’s Next for This Penny Stock?
Remember, the markets move fast and things may quickly change for this stock. Our MarketClub members have access to entry and exit signals so they’ll know when the trend starts to reverse.
Join MarketClub now to see the latest signals and scores, get alerts, and read member-exclusive analysis for over 350K stocks, futures, ETFs, forex pairs and mutual funds.
Start Your MarketClub Trial
Best,The MarketClub Team[email protected]

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Here’s a Stock to Offset Food Inflation

Ignore the premature celebration on Wall Street that inflation has been beaten and all is well with the world.

In reality, inflation is not close to being “beaten.”

For example, take a look at food prices in the U.S., which increased 11.2% in the 12 months that ended September 30, after jumping 11.4% previously (the most since May 1979). This is according to the latest inflation data published October 13, 2022, by the U.S. Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics.

And now, food prices are once again facing upward pressure. The latest blow to consumers is due to the record cost for shipping grain in the U.S.: it now costs $90.45 to transport one ton of freight by barge along the Mississippi River from St. Louis, Missouri, to New Orleans, Louisiana. This data comes from an October 6 report by the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

The price of barge transport has tripled over the past 12 months, hitting the highest figure ever recorded since 2003, when comparable data was first recorded!

This is not good news for consumers. But as an investor, you can offset rising food inflation by choosing a company that can do well in the current economic environment…

The jump in cost for barge transportation is due to the fact that this year, drought conditions have caused water levels in the Mississippi River to drop a lot. This triggered barge draft restrictions that have limited the amount of cargo each vessel can carry. In other words, it takes more barges to transport the same volume of freight.

A mere 170,000 tons of soybeans, wheat, and corn traveled down one segment of the Mississippi River during the final week of September, according to Department of Agriculture data. That’s a 50% decline from the average volume over the past three years.

As one grain trading analyst told Nikkei Asia, “We thought food inflation had subsided, but now it is gaining steam again.”

Archer Daniels Midland at a Glance

One company that will do well from this food inflation is Archer Daniels Midland (commonly referred to by its ticker symbol, ADM), whose stock has easily outperformed the broad market in 2022, up more than 28% year to date.

Founded in 1902 and based in Chicago, Archer Daniels Midland purchases, transports, stores, processes, and merchandises agricultural commodities and products worldwide. One of the world’s leading producers of ingredients for both human and animal nutrition, ADM transforms natural products into staple foods, sustainable and renewable industrial products, renewable fuels, and a vast pantry of food and beverage ingredients, supplements, nutrition for pets and livestock, and more.

ADM’s operations are organized into three business segments: Ag Services and Oilseeds (58% of 2021 operating profit); Carbohydrate Solutions (27% of 2021 operating profit); and Nutrition (15% of 2021 operating profit).

The Ag Services and Oilseeds segment includes activities worldwide related to the origination, merchandising, transportation, and storage of agricultural raw materials, as well as the crushing and processing of oilseeds like soybeans and soft seeds (cottonseed, sunflower seed, canola, rapeseed, and flaxseed) into vegetable oils and protein meals.

The Carbohydrate Solutions segment is engaged in the wet and dry milling of corn and wheat, as well as other activities. ADM converts corn and wheat into products and ingredients used in the food and beverage industry, including sweeteners, corn and wheat starches, syrup, glucose, wheat flour, and dextrose.

The Nutrition segment serves various end markets including food, beverages, nutritional supplements, and feed, along with premix for livestock, aquaculture, and household pets. It engages in the manufacturing, sale, and distribution of a wide array of ingredients and solutions including plant-based proteins, natural flavors, natural colors, emulsifiers, soluble fiber, probiotics, prebiotics, enzymes, botanical extracts, and other specialty food and feed ingredients. This segment is ADM’s least volatile business and one of its more profitable, with EBITDA margins in the low-to-mid-20% range.

A Look Ahead at ADM

ADM has reported five consecutive quarters of results that have beaten Wall Street forecasts. I expect a sixth such quarter when it reports results in late October 2022.

The bullish outlook reflects my outlook for further growth in the Oilseeds business (thanks to increased exports), expanded European capacity in Carbohydrates Solutions, and continued strong growth in the Nutrition segment, which is benefiting from strong global demand for soybean meal.

Longer-term, I expect the nutrition business to grow from 15% of profits in 2021 to 27% by 2026. This will make ADM less exposed to the ups-and-downs of the grain market.

On the dividend side, ADM’s balance sheet is clean, with few near-term debt maturities over the next few years. And management has signaled confidence in raising the dividend again this year.

Archer Daniels Midland is a Dividend Aristocrat, having now paid a dividend for 90 straight years!

Dividends have averaged just above 40% of net income for the past decade—a steady and sustainable pace. In January 2022, ADM raised its quarterly payout by 8.1% (the biggest jump in seven years) to $0.40 per share, or $1.60 annually, for a current yield of about 1.9%.

I fully expect another nice jump in the dividend in early 2023 and believe ADM stock will continue to outperform the broader stock market. The stock, currently around $87 a share, is a buy anywhere up to $95 a share.
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Best Performing ETF Group is Not What You Think

With just two months to go in 2022, the best-performing group of Exchange Traded Funds year-to-date may not be what you would have expected it to be when we started the year.
After a strong bull market rally coming off the march 2020 Covid-19 dip, most investors would have assumed stocks, mainly big technology stocks, would again be the market leaders in 2022.
However, the market never ceases to surprise, and as hindsight is always in 20-20 vision, it feels like we all should have seen the signs that 2022 wasn’t going to be a good year for stocks and another asset class was going to dominate.
What asset class are we speaking of? Bonds! Well, to be more specific, shorting Treasury Bonds.

Shorting longer-dated Treasury bonds has been, hands down, the best trade of 2022. Whether you use leveraged and-or inverse products or not, shorting Treasury Bills has produced great results in 2022.
For example, the ProShares UltraPro Short 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TTT) is up 176% year-to-date and more than 50% over the last three months. Direxion’s version of the same ETF, the Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares ETF (TMV), is also up 176% year-to-date. The ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TBT), which is a 2X leveraged inverse fund, is up more than 100% year-to-date.
Even the funds that short the shorter term Treasury bills, the 7-10 year term bills, like the Direxion Daily 7-10 Year Treasury Bear 3X Share ETF (TYO) and the ProShares UltraShort 7-10 Year Treasury ETF (PST) are up 66% and 42% respectively.
If you had run a screener at the beginning of the year for non-leveraged and non-inverse funds because the risk involved with those products are not necessarily in your comfort zone, you still could have bought the Simplify Interest Rate Hedge ETF (PFIX). PFIX holds over-the-counter interest rate options and US Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities or TIPS, and still produced a return of around 100% year-to-date.
So you may be asking how and why shorting longer-dated Treasury bills produce solid results when interest rates, Treasury bills, and bond yields are climbing higher. Well, it is a little complicated on the surface but pretty simple once you understand how it all works.
First, let us think about it this way. You have owned a 10-year Treasury bill for three years, paying you 2.5% interest. In this scenario, interest rates are lower than when you bought the bill; let’s say the current 10-year bill is paying 2.00%. Your Treasury bill would be worth more than a current bill because your bill is paying a higher interest rate than what an investor could get if they bought a new one. In this situation, your Treasury bill increases in value as interest rates go lower since it pays a higher rate than what another investor could get otherwise.
In the second scenario, similar to what is currently happening in the bond market, you again hold a 10-year Treasury bill paying a 2.5% rate. However, rates are increasing. Thus, a recent 10-year Treasury bill is paying, let’s say, 3.00%. Since an investor looking for a 10-year Treasury bond can get a 3% return on a new bill, the value of your bill, which is only 2.5%, will be lower than what you paid for it.

As interest rates and Treasury yields increase, the value of your bill will continue to decline since investors can get a better yield if they buy more recently issued Treasury bills. All of the ETFs mentioned above are using this phenomenon to their benefit. They are all shorting the value of the longer-dated 20, 10, and 7-year Treasury bills, which are paying lower interest rates than what investors can get with the newly issued Treasury bills.
Furthermore, if the Federal Reserve continues to increase interest rates as a way to fight inflation, we will continue to see the value of older, longer-dated Treasury bills decline. However, even if the Fed begins to slow or even stops increasing interest rates in the coming months, the ETFs mentioned above will likely continue to produce solid returns as long as we don’t see interest rates rapidly decline.
If you are considering buying one of these products today, remember past performance is no guarantee of future results and that you may have missed the bulk of the trade on this one. Still, no one knows how high the Fed will be willing to push interest rates as it attempts to bring down inflation.
Matt ThalmanINO.com ContributorFollow me on Twitter @mthalman5513
Disclosure: This contributor did not hold a position in any investment mentioned above at the time this blog post was published. This article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. This contributor is not receiving compensation (other than from INO.com) for their opinion.

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white car charging

MULN Stock: Don’t Get Tempted by This Stock’s Low Price

Automotive company Mullen Automotive, Inc. (MULN) distributes and sells electric vehicles (EVs). The company also operates CarHub, a digital platform that leverages artificial intelligence to offer an interactive solution for buying, selling, and owning a car. On October 19, MULN announced that the U.S. Bankruptcy Court approved its acquisition of EV company Electric Last Mile

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