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Silver And Palladium Update: False Hope

The price action in the silver futures has given a false hope to bulls this month.
The largest volume support (orange) has offered a solid support for the silver futures price lately. It is located between $17.4 and $18.2. The price has tested it three times already and failed to break it down.
Source: TradingView
The RSI has built a Bullish Divergence during the second touchdown at the end of the summer. The reaction was an imminent reversal to the upside. It was promising price action for the bulls as the futures price soared from $17.4 up to $21.3 by the start of this month to book the gain of almost four bucks (22% growth).

Afterwards, the same indicator has failed to break above the 50 barrier in spite of a strong impulse and so did the price rally. It stopped more than half dollar below the moving average (purple).
The price dropped back to the largest volume support after above mentioned failure but bounced then. It has managed to score more than one dollar from the latest valley of $18. This puts the silver futures between the hammer ($21.9, moving average resistance) and the anvil ($18, volume support).
The chart structure of the recent rally looks corrective. This means that the weakness of the price should resume. The next support is located at the following volume area of $15.8.
There are no other significant levels to catch the “falling knife” of silver except the “Flash-Crash” valley in $11.6. The drop to the latter could build a larger corrective structure visible on a bigger map.
The invalidation of the bearish outlook would come with the breakup of the moving average above $21.9.
Last time, your most popular answer was that silver futures would stop at $16. The next bid was bullish. None of the bets have played out as yet.

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Last time I updated the palladium chart in January, I highlighted two scenarios for you as the technical outlook (blue) was in contradiction with the fundamental outlook (red). I put the old chart below to refresh your memory.
Source: TradingView
The blue scenario is about to be eliminated as the disastrous pattern I spotted for you below could reverse the technical outlook down to match with a red bearish path.
Source: TradingView
The shallow advance of the price has failed to overcome the double resistance of the volume barrier and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level around $2,400 at the beginning of the month.

Overall, the move to the upside from June to October resembles the sideways consolidation after a huge drop from the all-time high of $3,425. These elements have jointly built a well-known Bear Flag pattern (purple). The price is sitting right on the flag’s support. Watch the breakdown of it for a confirmation of the pattern.
The flag’s target aims at $320. To find this target, I subtracted the height of the flag pole from the flag’s support. It means a huge collapse of the price as it should lose more than 80% of its current value. Ouch!
There is the largest volume support area between $1,560 and $1,300 to be broken first. The next support is located at $815 in the valley of Y2018.
The majority of readers (65% vs. 35%) chose the bullish outlook for palladium last time.

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Intelligent trades!
Aibek BurabayevINO.com Contributor
Disclosure: This contributor has no positions in any stocks mentioned in this article. This article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. This contributor is not receiving compensation (other than from INO.com) for their opinion.

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One Penny Stock Posting Extraordinary Gains

The Fed’s persistent hawkish stance to tame the stubborn inflation and the consequent increase in recession fears have led the widely-followed stock indices to witness massive sell-offs this year.
While most well-known names in the market got caught in the brutal sell-off, penny stock Pulse Biosciences (PLSE) witnessed a solid uptrend, gaining 54.3% over the past month and 11.9% over the past three months.
Source: MarketClub
PLSE operates as a novel bioelectric medicine company. It provides CellFX System, a tunable, software-enabled, and console-based platform used to treat various medical conditions using its Nano Pulse Stimulation technology.

The medical therapy company delivered impressive results for the second quarter that ended June 30, 2022. During the quarter, the company transitioned its commercial focus toward utilizing CellFX Systems in a select group of dermatology clinics. In addition, the company completed two commercial sales of CellFX Systems.
Furthermore, PLSE is expanding strategic opportunities within healthcare and anticipates a concentrated focus on the oncology, gastroenterology, and cardiac sectors.
PLSE is trading above its 50-day moving average of $1.73, indicating an uptrend. While the company is yet to turn profitable, Wall Street expects its loss to decline in the upcoming quarters, which could help the stock grab some more investor attention and maintain its momentum.
In terms of its forward EV/Sales, PLSE is trading at 73.74x compared to the industry average of 3.81x. The stock’s forward Price/Sales of 72.31x compares to the industry average of 4.25x.

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Here is what could influence PLSE’s performance in the upcoming months:
Recent Positive Developments
On October 6, PLSE announced positive clinical data from an FDA-approved Investigational Device Exempt treatment and study on the use of Nano-Pulse Stimulation (NPS) procedure for low-risk basal cell carcinoma (BCC) lesions.Here is what Kevin Danahy, President and Chief Executive Officer of Pulse Biosciences, said:

In September, PLSE received FDA 510(k) clearance for its CellFX System to treat sebaceous hyperplasia in patients with Fitzpatrick skin types I-III. The FDA clearance enables the company to support clinics in marketing and promoting CellFX treatments, specifically for patients with sebaceous hyperplasia.
Impressive Recent Financials
In the fiscal second quarter (ended June 2022), PLSE’s revenues totaled $265,000, including System revenue of $209,000 and Cycle Units revenue of $56,000.
The company’s non-GAAP operating expenses declined 21% year-over-year. Its non-GAAP net loss narrowed to $11.9 million from $12.6 million in the year-ago quarter.
Favorable Analyst Estimates
Analysts expect PLSE’s revenue for the fiscal 2023 first quarter (ending March 31) to come in at $800,000, indicating an increase of 80.2% from the prior-year period. The consensus revenue estimate of $3.89 million for fiscal 2023 indicates a 250.7% year-over-year improvement. Also, Wall Street expects the company’s loss to narrow by 6.3% for the quarter that ended September 2022 and 22.8% for the full year.
Technical Indicators Show Promise
According to MarketClub’s Trade Triangles, the long-term trend for PLSE has been UP since October 3, 2022, and its intermediate-term trend has been UP since September 12, 2022. However, the stock’s short-term trend has been DOWN since October 19, 2022.
The Trade Triangles are our proprietary indicators, comprised of weighted factors that include (but are not necessarily limited to) price change, percentage change, moving averages, and new highs/lows. The Trade Triangles point in the direction of short-term, intermediate, and long-term trends, looking for periods of alignment and, therefore, intense swings in price.

In terms of the Chart Analysis Score, another MarketClub proprietary tool, PLSE scored +75 on a scale from -100 (strong downtrend) to +100 (strong uptrend), indicating Bull Market Weakness. While PLSE shows signs of short-term weakness, it remains in the confines of a long-term uptrend.

The Chart Analysis Score measures trend strength and direction based on five different timing thresholds. This tool considers intraday price action; new daily, weekly, and monthly highs and lows; and moving averages.
Click here to see the latest Score and Signals for PLSE.
What’s Next for This Penny Stock?
Remember, the markets move fast and things may quickly change for this stock. Our MarketClub members have access to entry and exit signals so they’ll know when the trend starts to reverse.
Join MarketClub now to see the latest signals and scores, get alerts, and read member-exclusive analysis for over 350K stocks, futures, ETFs, forex pairs and mutual funds.
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Best,The MarketClub Team[email protected]

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Here’s a Stock to Offset Food Inflation

Ignore the premature celebration on Wall Street that inflation has been beaten and all is well with the world.

In reality, inflation is not close to being “beaten.”

For example, take a look at food prices in the U.S., which increased 11.2% in the 12 months that ended September 30, after jumping 11.4% previously (the most since May 1979). This is according to the latest inflation data published October 13, 2022, by the U.S. Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics.

And now, food prices are once again facing upward pressure. The latest blow to consumers is due to the record cost for shipping grain in the U.S.: it now costs $90.45 to transport one ton of freight by barge along the Mississippi River from St. Louis, Missouri, to New Orleans, Louisiana. This data comes from an October 6 report by the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

The price of barge transport has tripled over the past 12 months, hitting the highest figure ever recorded since 2003, when comparable data was first recorded!

This is not good news for consumers. But as an investor, you can offset rising food inflation by choosing a company that can do well in the current economic environment…

The jump in cost for barge transportation is due to the fact that this year, drought conditions have caused water levels in the Mississippi River to drop a lot. This triggered barge draft restrictions that have limited the amount of cargo each vessel can carry. In other words, it takes more barges to transport the same volume of freight.

A mere 170,000 tons of soybeans, wheat, and corn traveled down one segment of the Mississippi River during the final week of September, according to Department of Agriculture data. That’s a 50% decline from the average volume over the past three years.

As one grain trading analyst told Nikkei Asia, “We thought food inflation had subsided, but now it is gaining steam again.”

Archer Daniels Midland at a Glance

One company that will do well from this food inflation is Archer Daniels Midland (commonly referred to by its ticker symbol, ADM), whose stock has easily outperformed the broad market in 2022, up more than 28% year to date.

Founded in 1902 and based in Chicago, Archer Daniels Midland purchases, transports, stores, processes, and merchandises agricultural commodities and products worldwide. One of the world’s leading producers of ingredients for both human and animal nutrition, ADM transforms natural products into staple foods, sustainable and renewable industrial products, renewable fuels, and a vast pantry of food and beverage ingredients, supplements, nutrition for pets and livestock, and more.

ADM’s operations are organized into three business segments: Ag Services and Oilseeds (58% of 2021 operating profit); Carbohydrate Solutions (27% of 2021 operating profit); and Nutrition (15% of 2021 operating profit).

The Ag Services and Oilseeds segment includes activities worldwide related to the origination, merchandising, transportation, and storage of agricultural raw materials, as well as the crushing and processing of oilseeds like soybeans and soft seeds (cottonseed, sunflower seed, canola, rapeseed, and flaxseed) into vegetable oils and protein meals.

The Carbohydrate Solutions segment is engaged in the wet and dry milling of corn and wheat, as well as other activities. ADM converts corn and wheat into products and ingredients used in the food and beverage industry, including sweeteners, corn and wheat starches, syrup, glucose, wheat flour, and dextrose.

The Nutrition segment serves various end markets including food, beverages, nutritional supplements, and feed, along with premix for livestock, aquaculture, and household pets. It engages in the manufacturing, sale, and distribution of a wide array of ingredients and solutions including plant-based proteins, natural flavors, natural colors, emulsifiers, soluble fiber, probiotics, prebiotics, enzymes, botanical extracts, and other specialty food and feed ingredients. This segment is ADM’s least volatile business and one of its more profitable, with EBITDA margins in the low-to-mid-20% range.

A Look Ahead at ADM

ADM has reported five consecutive quarters of results that have beaten Wall Street forecasts. I expect a sixth such quarter when it reports results in late October 2022.

The bullish outlook reflects my outlook for further growth in the Oilseeds business (thanks to increased exports), expanded European capacity in Carbohydrates Solutions, and continued strong growth in the Nutrition segment, which is benefiting from strong global demand for soybean meal.

Longer-term, I expect the nutrition business to grow from 15% of profits in 2021 to 27% by 2026. This will make ADM less exposed to the ups-and-downs of the grain market.

On the dividend side, ADM’s balance sheet is clean, with few near-term debt maturities over the next few years. And management has signaled confidence in raising the dividend again this year.

Archer Daniels Midland is a Dividend Aristocrat, having now paid a dividend for 90 straight years!

Dividends have averaged just above 40% of net income for the past decade—a steady and sustainable pace. In January 2022, ADM raised its quarterly payout by 8.1% (the biggest jump in seven years) to $0.40 per share, or $1.60 annually, for a current yield of about 1.9%.

I fully expect another nice jump in the dividend in early 2023 and believe ADM stock will continue to outperform the broader stock market. The stock, currently around $87 a share, is a buy anywhere up to $95 a share.
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Best Performing ETF Group is Not What You Think

With just two months to go in 2022, the best-performing group of Exchange Traded Funds year-to-date may not be what you would have expected it to be when we started the year.
After a strong bull market rally coming off the march 2020 Covid-19 dip, most investors would have assumed stocks, mainly big technology stocks, would again be the market leaders in 2022.
However, the market never ceases to surprise, and as hindsight is always in 20-20 vision, it feels like we all should have seen the signs that 2022 wasn’t going to be a good year for stocks and another asset class was going to dominate.
What asset class are we speaking of? Bonds! Well, to be more specific, shorting Treasury Bonds.

Shorting longer-dated Treasury bonds has been, hands down, the best trade of 2022. Whether you use leveraged and-or inverse products or not, shorting Treasury Bills has produced great results in 2022.
For example, the ProShares UltraPro Short 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TTT) is up 176% year-to-date and more than 50% over the last three months. Direxion’s version of the same ETF, the Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares ETF (TMV), is also up 176% year-to-date. The ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TBT), which is a 2X leveraged inverse fund, is up more than 100% year-to-date.
Even the funds that short the shorter term Treasury bills, the 7-10 year term bills, like the Direxion Daily 7-10 Year Treasury Bear 3X Share ETF (TYO) and the ProShares UltraShort 7-10 Year Treasury ETF (PST) are up 66% and 42% respectively.
If you had run a screener at the beginning of the year for non-leveraged and non-inverse funds because the risk involved with those products are not necessarily in your comfort zone, you still could have bought the Simplify Interest Rate Hedge ETF (PFIX). PFIX holds over-the-counter interest rate options and US Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities or TIPS, and still produced a return of around 100% year-to-date.
So you may be asking how and why shorting longer-dated Treasury bills produce solid results when interest rates, Treasury bills, and bond yields are climbing higher. Well, it is a little complicated on the surface but pretty simple once you understand how it all works.
First, let us think about it this way. You have owned a 10-year Treasury bill for three years, paying you 2.5% interest. In this scenario, interest rates are lower than when you bought the bill; let’s say the current 10-year bill is paying 2.00%. Your Treasury bill would be worth more than a current bill because your bill is paying a higher interest rate than what an investor could get if they bought a new one. In this situation, your Treasury bill increases in value as interest rates go lower since it pays a higher rate than what another investor could get otherwise.
In the second scenario, similar to what is currently happening in the bond market, you again hold a 10-year Treasury bill paying a 2.5% rate. However, rates are increasing. Thus, a recent 10-year Treasury bill is paying, let’s say, 3.00%. Since an investor looking for a 10-year Treasury bond can get a 3% return on a new bill, the value of your bill, which is only 2.5%, will be lower than what you paid for it.

As interest rates and Treasury yields increase, the value of your bill will continue to decline since investors can get a better yield if they buy more recently issued Treasury bills. All of the ETFs mentioned above are using this phenomenon to their benefit. They are all shorting the value of the longer-dated 20, 10, and 7-year Treasury bills, which are paying lower interest rates than what investors can get with the newly issued Treasury bills.
Furthermore, if the Federal Reserve continues to increase interest rates as a way to fight inflation, we will continue to see the value of older, longer-dated Treasury bills decline. However, even if the Fed begins to slow or even stops increasing interest rates in the coming months, the ETFs mentioned above will likely continue to produce solid returns as long as we don’t see interest rates rapidly decline.
If you are considering buying one of these products today, remember past performance is no guarantee of future results and that you may have missed the bulk of the trade on this one. Still, no one knows how high the Fed will be willing to push interest rates as it attempts to bring down inflation.
Matt ThalmanINO.com ContributorFollow me on Twitter @mthalman5513
Disclosure: This contributor did not hold a position in any investment mentioned above at the time this blog post was published. This article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. This contributor is not receiving compensation (other than from INO.com) for their opinion.

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white car charging

MULN Stock: Don’t Get Tempted by This Stock’s Low Price

Automotive company Mullen Automotive, Inc. (MULN) distributes and sells electric vehicles (EVs). The company also operates CarHub, a digital platform that leverages artificial intelligence to offer an interactive solution for buying, selling, and owning a car. On October 19, MULN announced that the U.S. Bankruptcy Court approved its acquisition of EV company Electric Last Mile

MULN Stock: Don’t Get Tempted by This Stock’s Low Price Read More »

Two Growth Stocks to Buy on Dips

It’s been a volatile year for the major market averages, and the S&P-500 (SPY) has now corrected over 27% from its highs, suggesting we’ve seen the majority of the downside short-term.
This is based on the average recessionary bear market coming in at 34% and the S&P-500 now satisfying 80% of the average decline’s magnitude.
One of the most beaten-up areas of the market has been growth stocks, and with elevated pessimism finally increasing the likelihood of a short-term market bottom, this is the ideal time to be hunting for new ideas.
Unfortunately, not all stocks are created equal. While many growth stocks might be oversold, those still posting net losses per share and carrying high debt levels are extremely risky in a rising-rate environment.

However, for investors willing to dig through the rubble, two names stand out as extremely attractive, trading at significant discounts to fair value despite boasting strong earnings trends. In this update, we’ll look at two stocks that are solid buy-the-dip candidates:
Boot Barn (BOOT)
Boot Barn (BOOT) is a small-cap growth stock in the Retail/Apparel industry group that has enjoyed near triple-digit sales growth, increasing revenue from $180MM in fiscal Q1 2020 to $299MM in fiscal Q1 2023.
This has been accomplished by industry-leading same-store sales growth rates and continued unit growth (73 new stores opened), which is supported by the company’s continuously improving unit economics. For example, the company’s average sales per square foot have improved from a prior target of $170/square foot to over $400/square foot, increasing its payback period from three years to one year for new stores.
At the same time as sales have continued to increase at double-digit levels and it’s grown its store count to 330, the company has enjoyed growth in exclusive brand penetration, providing a significant boost to annual earnings per share.
This is because its private-label brands carry much higher margins, allowing BOOT to nearly quadruple annual EPS from FY2020 to FY2022 ($6.18 vs. $1.55). These are phenomenal growth rates, and with plans to grow its store count by over 12% this year, this growth story is still in its early innings.
Unfortunately, the stock has been crushed year-to-date (down 56%) due to the negative sentiment for the Retail Sector (XRT) and the company’s lukewarm comments in fiscal Q2 2023 guidance.
However, it’s important to note that while Boot Barn’s inventory levels were up and same-store sales decelerated, it has less of a discretionary tilt to its business than its peers. This is because many of its categories are functional and include work boots, work apparel, and men’s Western apparel).
So, while Boot Barn’s sales will be impacted by shrinking discretionary budgets among consumers, I expect it to be more insulated than some of its more discretionary peers.
The good news for investors who were patient to stay on the sidelines is that even if fiscal Q2 2023 results do show deceleration, considerable negativity is already priced into BOOT’s stock. This is because it is now trading at ~9.1x FY2023 earnings estimates ($5.95) and less than 8x FY2024 annual EPS estimates ($6.56).
The result is that Boot Barn is the definition of growth at a very reasonable price and the case of a proverbial baby being thrown out with the bathwater. So, with the stock pulling back below $55.00 to test technical support with a fair value above $90.00, I see this as a buying opportunity.
DocGo (DCGO)
DocGo (DCGO) is a $1.1BB company in the Medical Services industry group. It is a leading provider of last-mile mobile health services and integrated medical mobility solutions, and it was founded in 2015.
When it comes to the largest stock market winners over the past half-century, they have two key attributes, and DocGo also boasts these two characteristics. The first is high double-digit sales and earnings growth, and the second is a product or service that changes how we live or disrupts an industry.
In terms of disruption, the company’s mobile health segment up-trains lower-cost medical professionals to provide care in the homes or offices of patients, filling a gap that telehealth cannot.
Meanwhile, its medical transportation segment provides non-emergency ambulance transportation for hospital systems. The result is that healthcare is more efficient, and patients don’t slip through the cracks, given that those who cannot get to hospitals easily can receive the care they need. Those that must get to hospitals for care are provided a way to get through without delay through non-emergency ambulance transportation.
Although the story is exciting from an investment standpoint, the financials are the most important. Fortunately, DocGo excels in this category. The company reported 78% revenue growth in its most recent, and quarterly earnings per share increased 83%, helped by higher margins.
This is a clear differentiator in a market where we’re seeing margin compression for most small-cap companies. In fact, DocGo’s H1 2022 results were so strong that the company raised its FY2022 sales guidance to $430MM and is now looking to take advantage of market weakness to buy back its stock, with it sitting on over $200MM in cash.
Based on a fair earnings multiple of 50 for a high-margin company boasting these growth rates, I see over 72% upside for DCGO, with a fair value of $19.00 (50x FY2023 annual EPS estimates of $0.38).
Longer-term, though, I see an upside to more than $25.00 per share, with the company having a massive TAM where it’s barely scratched the surface and continuing to see strong growth in new contracts.

So, with DCGO being one of the few small-cap names in uptrends with high double-digit revenue growth, I would view any pullbacks below $10.00 as buying opportunities.
With the general market under pressure and stocks continuing to plumb new lows, it’s understandable that many investors are shying away from putting new capital to work.
However, it is a market of stocks, not a stock market. BOOT and DCGO are two examples of growth at a very reasonable price that could increase by 80% over the next 24 months. This is due to being heavily mispriced due to the increased downside volatility we’ve experienced in the market, where investors are selling indiscriminately to raise cash.
So, while position sizing is key in small-cap names, I see both as attractive below $54.00 (BOOT) and $10.00 (DCGO), respectively.
Taylor DartINO.com Contributor
Disclaimer: This article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. Taylor Dart is not a Registered Investment Advisor or Financial Planner. This writing is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation to buy, or a recommendation regarding any securities transaction. The information contained in this writing should not be construed as financial or investment advice on any subject matter. Taylor Dart expressly disclaims all liability in respect to actions taken based on any or all of the information in this writing.

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