Investors Alley

It’s coming. You cannot stop it.

The media cannot stop it by declaring it will not happen.

The economy is going to slow down. A recession is still more likely than not.

Even if the Fed stops raising rates (which is almost entirely dependent on energy and rent prices at this point), they will not lower them anytime soon.

As the economy slows, headlines about real estate will read like dispatches from Poland in the fall of 1939.

Predictions about the collapse of real estate leading to the end of banking and Armageddon will be everywhere.

After all, everyone knows that interest rates have risen, which will be bad for real estate.

Massive amounts of commercial real estate loans are coming due over the next couple of years.

A slowdown in the economy is going to be terrible for real estate.

That is just common sense, isn’t it?

Well, no. And therein lies our opportunity…

While it is true that Commercial Real Estate markets may not be as robust as they have been with interest rates at almost zero, most segments of the market will muddle through the refinancing cycle. While cash flows may flatline for a period, they will not dry up completely.

A lot of the cost of higher financing rates will be passed onto tenants, who will pass much of it on to customers.

Downtown skyscraper office properties will be the only area that will suffer semi-permanent damage. Working from home has changed their tenants’ real estate needs, and it will be a problem.

Residential real estate sales will continue to slow as buyers adjust to the new normal. Mortgage rates have more than doubled in less than two years.

Rates are almost three times what they were back in 2020 when the current housing boom kicked off.

However, if we look at a long-term chart of mortgage rates, current rates are on the low side of normal for the past fifty years.

My Mom had double-digit rates on all four homes she purchased in her lifetime. Two of the three had double-digit interest rates.

She had excellent credit, so she got a great rate for the market at that time.

Rates were higher, so she paid them for a nice house in a good neighborhood with decent schools.

Today’s buyers will eventually acclimate to the new normal and do the same.

The headlines about the multifamily market would have you believe that no one will ever rent an apartment again.

The truth is that multifamily occupancy rates across the United States are about 94%.

New supply is going to dry up as the economy slows.

Most banks and REIT lenders have already stopped funding new projects.

Rent growth will probably slow.

Existing properties, especially Class A properties with high-demand amenities, will be fine no matter what the headlines suggest. As of right now, Class A occupancy rates are comfortably above lower-grade buildings and improving.

As the economy slows, it will be the lower-end apartments that have occupancy problems. The Class A buildings should remain full.

In retail real estate, the same will hold true. Class A malls will be fine, while malls in less populated areas with lower incomes will struggle.

Open-air shopping centers with a strong tenant base in upscale areas will not just be okay.

They should be fantastic investments.

Lower prices because of headlines and uninformed selling of REITs will be an incredible opportunity.

We have added some high-quality real estate to The 20% Letter portfolio this year.

As prices fall, we will add more.

Real Estate has created more millionaires in the United States than any other asset class.

Buying real estate in weak markets has created enormous fortunes for patient-aggressive investors.

We will take advantage of the opportunity created in commercial and residential real estate.

You can either listen to the predictions of those who have predicted 22 of the last zero collapses of the United States, or you can get ready to take advantage of the massive opportunity currently being created.

It will be more than just Real Estate Investment Trusts.

It will be lenders.

It will be commercial real estate mortgage REITS.

It will be agency and multifamily mortgage REITs.

It will be commercial and residential brokers.

Property managers and real estate services companies will offer massive returns when purchased at bargain basement prices.

So will the global commercial real estate services and investment management companies. As the economy slows and the headlines darken, I expect panicked selling of real estate-related securities and assets to price at levels that allow massive long-term gains for patient, aggressive investors.

Check out the picture on the next page. It’s a beat up building that would’ve turned $25k into $4.1 million. It’s not a real estate play. Actually, with the Fed raising rates, it’s the best asset to buy right now. View this beat up, millionaire-making asset.

Last week, I went to fuel up my pickup truck and was shocked to see that gas prices had jumped overnight by $0.40 per gallon. Ouch!

I started digging into the cause, looking for an investment angle.

What I found reinforced my belief in what I think is one of the best investment opportunities in the energy sector…

Many news outlets reported the price jump, referencing a GasBuddy post. I found the original post and here is the opening paragraph:

Drivers in Oklahoma, Missouri, South Dakota, North Dakota, Nebraska, Minnesota and Kansas: be ready. GasBuddy, the leading fuel savings platform saving North American drivers the most money on gas, today predicts that gas prices in these states will spike anywhere from 50¢ to $1 per gallon over the next several days. While there are few details on the particulars on what is driving the increase, trade sources tell GasBuddy a refinery outage may be to blame.

I live in South Dakota and was traveling through Iowa (also hit by the increase) and Minnesota. I don’t remember seeing that magnitude of price increase in just a couple of days.

A few days earlier, I read an article titled: “‘No Plan B, No Excess Capacity Anywhere’: Oil Industry Warns of Looming Refining Crisis As ‘Dirty’ China Grabs Market Share.” Here is an excerpt from the article (emphasis mine):

The lack of spare crude-processing capacity due to under-investment, and shutdowns happening more frequently with refiners ramping up on better margins and deferring planned work were common themes at the APPEC by S&P Global Insights conference in Singapore this week. That’s left fuels like diesel and gasoline vulnerable to sudden swings when there are unplanned outages.

Here’s how to play this.

Refining companies operate with the significant challenge of having the prices of both raw material inputs (crude oil) and finished products (including gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel, and heating oil) determined in the commodity markets. As a result, refiners need to be highly efficient to stay profitable when the spread between oil and fuel prices is tight. The efficiency means that profits can explode higher when the spread widens.

In the U.S., refineries are operated by a range of companies, from large, diversified multinationals like ExxonMobil and Chevron down to small, single refinery companies. To start investing in refining stocks, I recommend looking at the three large companies whose businesses focus exclusively on refining:

Phillips 66 (PSX) is a $55 billion market cap company that owns and operates 13 refineries.

Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) has a $62 billion market cap and owns and operates 13 refineries.

Valero Energy Corp (VLO) has a $50 billion market cap and owns and operates 15 refineries.

One of these refining stocks is in my Monthly Dividend Multiplier newsletter recommended portfolio. The stock is on the portfolio due to a 2018 merger and has performed very well for my subscribers. I view all three as equally well-run, with comparable investment potential.

The bulk of stock market gains since last October are due to large price increases from a handful of large-cap, tech-focused stocks.

But growth stocks like that have had their time in the sun.

Let’s look at why value stocks could outperform in the future…

According to Investopedia, growth stocks are shares of companies that have the potential to outperform the overall market over time because of their future potential. In an upmarket, investors seem willing to pay any price to participate in the growth, which can produce rapid share price appreciation.

Value stocks are shares of companies that are currently trading below what they are really worth, and will thus provide a superior return. Value stock investors use fundamental analysis to determine a “fair value” for individual stocks. These stocks typically pay dividends with attractive yields. Value stock investing requires patience; it works best when it seems that no one else is buying this type of stock.

Market wags, coined by a Bank of America analyst to describe analysts, are calling the top-performing, large-cap tech stocks the Magnificent Seven. The stocks are Apple Inc. (AAPL), Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN), NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA), Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL), Meta Platforms Inc. (META), and Tesla Inc. (TSLA). Year to date, through September 5, these seven stocks posted an average return of 102%. The S&P 500 is up 17.7%.

The S&P 500 is a market-cap-weighted index. The seven listed stocks are very large and account for 27% of the index’s market cap. This is fuzzy math, but if you multiply 102% by 27%, you get 27.5%. That result tells me the remainder of the S&P 500 has, on average, posted a negative return for the year.

Another clue is that the SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Value ETF (SPYV) is up 10.7% for the year. The top three holdings of this ETF are MSFT, AMZN, and META, so this fund also benefited from the Magnificent Seven effect.

Throwing out the large-cap stocks, the Vanguard Mid-Cap Value Index Fund ETF Shares (VOE) is up just 1.1% for the year.

What would cause a rotation out of the large-cap growth stocks into value stocks? I think professional money managers will lead the shift. They must harvest profits from those 100%-plus gains to balance their portfolios. Some will go into value stocks as money rotates out of the Magnificent Seven. Buying will increase stock prices, leading to more buying, and soon, we will have a value stock bandwagon.I don’t know when value stocks will start a meaningful move, but it has been two years since there was a meaningful really for undervalued stocks. To my subscribers, I recommend the InfraCap Equity Income Fund ETF (ICAP) to get a great current yield from a value-focused fund manager.
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Fixed income investors who listened to Wall Street earlier this year and bought bonds have been left holding the bag. Rates have yet to peak, and yields have continued to move higher, lowering the value of any bonds the investors already held.

So, what should income investors do now?

With so much uncertainty still surrounding the path of the global economy and interest rates, conservative investors may just opt for parking funds in short-term Treasury bills that currently yield more than 5.25%.

For more aggressive investors, the best path to follow is a diversified approach for the income-producing part of your portfolio. Let me show you what I mean…

Pimco Income Strategy Fund

An easy way to diversify the fixed income portion of your portfolio is through a closed-end fund like the PIMCO Income Strategy Fund (PFL). Run by one of the best-known names in the fixed income space, the CEF offers exposure to varying credit types, credit qualities, and regions of the world.

Here is a brief description of the fund overview pulled from Pimco’s website.

Employing a multi-sector approach, the fund seeks high current income consistent with the preservation of capital by investing in a diversified portfolio of floating and/or fixed-rate debt instruments. The fund has the flexibility to allocate assets in varying proportions among floating- and fixed-rate debt instruments, as well as among investment grade and non-investment-grade securities.

In addition, the fund will not invest more than 20% of its total assets in securities that are, at the time of purchase, rated CCC/Caa or below by each ratings agency rating the security. The fund’s duration will normally be in the short to intermediate range (zero to eight years).

Finally, yield is just one component of the portfolio manager’s approach. Also considered are capital appreciation and principal preservation.

Be aware, though, that the fund does use leverage (total effective leverage = 23.76%) to try and improve its performance. This makes it more volatile than a non-leveraged bond fund.

So-called junk bonds comprise the largest chunk of the portfolio, with roughly 43% of the fund made up of non-investment grade and unrated bonds. While there is a modest allocation (roughly 12%) to government and agency securities, this is mostly a corporate bond fund.

Overall, PFL still qualifies as a well-diversified portfolio given its global exposure (about 23%) and mix of maturities. Industry-wise, PFL’s top investment sectors are: healthcare (9.14%), technology (7.9%), banks (6.04%), and consumer products (5.79%).

Maturity-wise, most of the bonds are currently in the intermediate range, with 27.58% having a maturity of three to five years, and 21.81% having a maturity of five to 10 years.

PFL Track Record

The PIMCO Income Strategy Fund is nearing the 20-year mark from its IPO, so it has been through the 2008-09 global financial crisis and the coronavirus pandemic.

Since its IPO, the fund’s 204% total return translates to roughly 6% annually. Like most bond funds, it performed reasonably well up until the post-pandemic period, when the Fed began hiking interest rates and effectively hammering fixed income valuations.

During the depths of the brief pandemic-related recession, PFL fell nearly 50% from peak to valley, but managed to gain it all back and then some before the end of 2020. Right now, the price of PFL is sitting about 35% or so below its post-pandemic peak.

Closed-end funds can trade at a premium or discount to their net asset value (NAV). PFL trades at a small premium of 3.43%. This is no doubt due to investors being attracted by its high yield—12.46%. PFL maintains a fixed monthly distribution policy that currently pays $0.0814 per share, or $0.9768 per share annually.

Part of the reason why PFL trades at a premium is its history of stability in its distribution. Income seeking investors just love predictability when it comes to their income streams. And, with the exception of one post-pandemic instance, this fund has delivered steadily. Judging its track record, it seems that the fund managers are willing to let the net asset value decline in favor of distribution stability.

It’s rather unusual to find a fund that encompasses so many different regions, credit qualities, maturities, and credit types, but PFL does it. Its rock-solid distribution history over the past 20 years makes the PIMCO Income Strategy Fund quite attractive. Predictable income is a good thing. PFL is a buy under $8 per share.
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Investors often use quarterly earnings results to decide whether to buy or sell individual stocks; however, investors who focus on past results will likely miss out on the blow-out positive quarters when looking at upstream energy producers.

Here’s what to look for instead, and what to look for…

Upstream energy companies are oil and gas producers. These companies drill wells to generate revenue from selling the oil and natural gas they produce. The variable nature of energy prices means that profits will swing up and down with changes in energy commodity prices.

The cost of producing a barrel of oil remains relatively steady. And natural gas, often an associated byproduct, provides extra revenue with little additional expense. The chart below shows the price of oil for the last year, which steadily declined from a year ago until the start of the 2023 third quarter. As a result, quarterly earnings in the upstream sector have also dropped.

Note that it was right at the end of the second quarter that oil bottomed in the $60s; it has since climbed into the low $80s. Upstream producers have been taking drill rigs out of service, leading to lowered production and likely continuing the price appreciation.

When the upstream energy companies report their third quarter in late October, I expect most will post positive earnings surprises. Several companies in this group pay variable dividends, and the higher profits will result in significant dividend boosts compared to the second quarter payouts.

Here is a list of the major U.S.-based upstream producers, market caps, second-quarter production levels, and dividend policies:

EOG Resources, Inc. (EOG) has a market cap of $76 billion. Second-quarter production came in at 970,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. EOG pays a stable dividend, which increases annually.

Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) has a market cap of $56 billion. Second-quarter production was 1.22 million BOE/D. OXY pays a stable dividend with a low current yield, which grows by more than 30% per year.

Pioneer Natural Resources Company (PXD) has a $55 billion market cap. Second-quarter production of 711,000 BOE/D. PXD pays a variable dividend.

Devon Energy Corporation (DVN) has a $32 billion market cap. For the second quarter, Devon produced 662,000 BOE/D. DVN pays a variable dividend.

Diamondback Energy, Inc. (FANG) has a $32 billion market cap. In the second quarter, FANG produced 450,000 BOE/D. The company pays a growing regular dividend and occasional supplemental dividends.

Marathon Oil Corporation (MRO) has a $16 billion market cap. For the second quarter, MRO produces 399,000 BOE/D. Marathon Oil pays a stable dividend, which has doubled over the last two years.

APA Corporation (APA) has a market cap of 13.5 billion. For the second quarter, the company produced 325,000 BOE/D. APA slashed its dividend during the pandemic, but is now up to the pre-pandemic level.

In the current energy environment, these companies are committed to growing production using free cash flow, not debt. They are also committed to returning capital to shareholders through cash dividends and share buybacks.

It’s a good time to invest in these upstream energy stocks. It will be too late when they report third-quarter earnings.
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When a technology is billed as something that will transform the entire global economy, the primary impulse of investors is often fear—specifically, fear of missing out (FOMO). And that’s exactly what we’ve seen so far in 2023, with regard to artificial intelligence (AI).

However, for investors, the most obvious play to profit from generative AI is already a very crowded trade. One of the best-known investing adages is to “invest in shovel-makers when there’s a gold rush,” and that’s just what investors have done so far in 2023.

Shares in Nvidia (NVDA), which makes the graphics processing units (GPUs) facilitating generative AI, have already more than tripled in value this year.

So if not Nvidia, or Microsoft (MSFT)—which has invested $13 billion into ChatGPT creator Open AI—then what? Microsoft stock is up over a third year-to-date.

There is no doubt that, when it comes to AI, the genie is out of the bottle. Artificial intelligence is a technological opportunity, as well as a risk for a wide range of industries, just as the internet was in the mid-1990s.

That brings us to the question for investors: should we just forget about the gold rush and shovel analogy? After all, companies are adopting AI at higher rates than they had in the past, with 50% of companies reporting using AI for at least one application in 2022 compared to just 20% in 2017, according to a report put together by Mastercard (MA).

The best investments may well be those companies that are well placed to actually utilize AI in their businesses—especially if they don’t have same lofty valuation as Nvidia does. Let’s look at one example…

AI Will Pay Its Way in Payments

We now have growing expectations of “soft landings” for major economies like the U.S., as well as markets pricing in the end of interest rate hiking cycles. This is ideal both for the valuations and earnings outlooks of companies for companies in growth businesses, such as payments.

Visa (V) shares have now recovered all the ground lost since the middle of 2021, and Mastercard has recently seen its share price at all-time record highs. These companies will benefit greatly from the use of AI. The opportunities in AI for payment businesses center around more robust fraud detection, personalized user experiences, and automated customer support.

Of these opportunities to improve their business, using AI in detecting fraud is the most important. Already, Mastercard estimates it has thwarted $35 billion worth of fraud in the last three years, primarily by utilizing AI technologies to spot authorized push payment (APP) scams. This is where criminals focus on conning consumers into sending them money by posing as legitimate entities. And the AI is getting more sophisticated, which is necessary to keep up with the criminals.

Given the vast quantities of data Visa and Mastercard have, there ought to be lots of opportunities to apply AI learning, with which they can drive user engagement.

Let’s look more specifically at what Mastercard is doing with AI.

Mastercard and AI

For one great example of what Mastercard is doing, we look across the pond to the U.K. and nine major British banks.

The payments giant has launched its Consumer Fraud Risk technology in the U.K., using large-scale payments data to help identify scams before funds leave a victim’s account. The project is happening at a time when players on both sides of the law are using AI.

The tool builds on insights from Mastercard’s work with U.K. banks to follow the flow of money mule accounts over the last few years. Overlaying this information with specific analysis factors—such as account names, payment values, payer and payee history, and the payee’s links to accounts associated with scams—helps provides banks with the intelligence necessary to intervene in real time and stop a payment before funds are lost.

Mastercard says that the system could have a significant impact on the aforementioned APP fraud, which has been rapidly rising in recent years and now accounts for 40% of U.K. bank fraud losses. The company estimates such fraud could cost $4.6 billion in just the U.S. and U.K. by 2026.

Mastercard decided to roll out Consumer Fraud Risk in the U.K. first because it has a lot of experience of tracing and stopping financial crime across the country’s real-time banking system and has helped to coordinate banks into sharing their fraud data. It is now assessing the next most appropriate markets to adopt the technology. So, there is a lot more to come on this front, with the U.S. being the biggest market.

With Mastercard being a leader in using AI in its industry, the company is one of the most prominent, but undiscovered, beneficiaries of AI.

The stock is still trading near its all-time high—up 15% year-to-date—and is a buy on any weakness, at around $400 a share.
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In our 48-Hour Income service, last week we sold a put on quantum computing company, IonQ (IONQ). The goal of the service is to generate 1% to 3% returns per week by selling 2-day puts in certain stocks. IONQ had earnings coming out so its options premiums were higher than normal. We chose a strike

It does not matter which metric or statistic you use.

Stocks are not cheap based on any empirically proven valuation metric. The S&P 500 P/E ratio is over 25—not the highest level ever recorded, but certainly on the high end of the historical scale. And the average P/E ratio of the stocks in the tech-heavy NASDAQ 100 is 37, according to last Friday’s Wall Street Journal.

There are only two ways for the P/E ratio to decline toward more normalized levels. One isn’t happening, and the other isn’t pretty.

Here’s what to do now to prepare yourself and your portfolio…

The first is for earnings to rise sharply, and that is not in the cards. Revenues are slowing, wages and costs have been rising, and consumers are more cost-conscious than they were a year ago. We may not see an earning apocalypse anytime soon, but neither we will see explosive upside gains.

Keep in mind that we have already seen U.S. corporate profits decline almost 12% from the highs. If the Federal Reserve hikes rates another time or two and tips us into a recession, a 15–20% decline in corporate profits becomes highly likely.

Under any probable scenario, earnings will not rise enough to justify current valuation levels.

When I look at my favorite barometers of market valuation, every single one tells me that stock valuations are elevated, and the probability of high returns from these levels is declining. The Fed may or may not raise rates at the September meeting. The CPI report reduced the likelihood of a hike, and the PPI put it back on the table.

Energy is the big question mark. Crude oil has rallied more than 20% since the lows in late June. Even natural gas, the Oakland A’s of the energy complex, has been trying to rally the past couple of months.

Rents may stop going up, but I do not expect them to decline significantly, either.

The Fed’s decision is more challenging than the headlines may indicate. Even if that august body of economists and career bureaucrats does not raise rates, they will not lower them anytime soon, either.

Interest rates are part of every valuation model. Higher rates mean businesses are worth less, and rates have gone from almost zero to 5.5% in less than 18 months. Yet rates do not appear to be priced into the market, in my not-always-so-humble opinion.

Does all this mean that the stock market is going to collapse soon?

I have no idea. Sentiment and momentum are both positive right now.

Momentum lasts until it stops. The problem is that when it does stop, it can be a somewhat violent shift.

So, should I sell all my stocks?

Maybe. Do you love the company? Is it a potential 100-bagger? Keep those.

Is its turnaround nearing full value or does the company rely on continued economic strength to profit? It is time to say goodbye to those.

You should, however, be careful about buying stocks in the most overheated part of the stock market.

Artificial intelligence is coming, and it is wonderful, but to justify the current price of NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA), the company must grow by more than 20% a year for decades.

Most money-losing AI stocks touted as the next big thing will not be, so it is not a time to be buying with reckless abandon. Be selective.

Instead, look for opportunities to buy good companies in sectors and industries the markets hate. The best banks, REITs, natural gas companies, and broadcast television companies will be much higher in a few years. And many of these unpopular companies will be taken over at a premium to the current stock price.

Buy on big down days. Stay small, move slowly, and accumulate positions over time.

You cannot be an extraordinary investor if you are doing what everyone else does.

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In the past year and a half or so, there’s been lots of talk about the U.S. yield curve essentially inverting.

So today, I wanted to make a couple of important points about it that’s important for you to see.

As you know, the yield curve visually depicts how bond maturity dates and interest rates relate for bonds of similar credit quality. 

Its shape reflects investor expectations and the current economic health. Analyzing the curve helps compare short and long-term bond yields and understanding the bond market’s broader economic influence.

What you can see on the U.S. treasuries yield curve chart right now is an inverted yield – meaning longer-term interest rates are less than short-term interest rates.

The reason I’m bringing this all up is because there’s been talk about when the U.S. yield curve inverts, it automatically means the economy will fall apart.

That’s not true. 

However, the real problem occurs when this happens… which has already slowly begun.

In today’s 3-minute video, I show you exactly what has me concerned, and what to pay attention to.

I release these weekly tips every Thursday for free, so stay tuned and stay subscribed here. 

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Rapid demand growth thanks to the energy transition away from fossil fuels could lead to a shortage of several metals over the next decade unless there’s more investment in the segment. This is according to the Energy Transitions Commission (ETC), a global group of power and industrial companies, consumers, financial institutions, and scientists.

Large supply gaps for lithium, nickel, graphite, cobalt, neodymium, and copper could lead to higher prices and delay the goal of reaching net-zero emissions by 2050, the ETC said in a report. To reduce the risk of shortages, mines need to produce more of these metals. However, the ETC explained, large-scale mining projects can take up to 20 years to come online, and the last decade was characterized by a lack of investment in exploration and output.

ETC Chair Adair Turner said in the report: “In some key minerals—particularly lithium and copper—it will be challenging to scale up supply fast enough over the next decade to keep pace with rapidly rising demand.”

Annual capital investment in energy transition metals averaged $45 billion over the last two decades, compared with the $70 billion needed each year through to 2030 to expand supply, the ETC said.

This opens up lots of opportunities for any company (and its investors) that steps in to try and fill the gap between supply and demand for energy transition metals.

Let’s take a look at a key one…

Move Over Lithium Miners, Here Comes Exxon

One company stepping into the breach is the oil and gas giant ExxonMobil (XOM), which seems to be going all-in on lithium. Bloomberg reports that Tesla, along with several other automakers including Ford and Volkswagen, are in talks with the company to buy lithium.

Exxon—best known for its oil production, which is threatened by the electric vehicle revolution—has been looking to get into the lithium business. The report also says that in addition to Tesla, Ford, and Volkswagen, Exxon is in talks with battery manufacturers Samsung and SK about supplying lithium.

Exxon revealed its seriousness about the lithium business in May. The energy company spent upward of $100 million for some acreage owned by privately held Galvanic Energy. The deal includes more than 120,000 acres in the Smackover formation, upper Jurassic rock found at depths of about 9,000 feet.

A highly sought-after oil and gas prospect in the 1940s, the Smackover is known today more for making Arkansas the world’s second-largest supplier of bromine. Like the bromine, the lithium in the Smackover is found in the oilfield brine. It therefore can be sourced using many of the same techniques used by the oil and gas industry. Thus, Exxon’s interest.

The Smackover’s location puts ExxonMobil in a position to become a key supplier to the growing domestic EV manufacturing base. The U.S. is currently home to just one lithium mine, in Nevada.

Galvanic estimates the acreage holds four million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE), which it says is enough to help build 50 million EVs. Galvanic also reports that test wells drilled recently showed an average LCE quantity of 325 milligrams per liter, which it says is the highest concentration of any lithium brine reservoir in North America.

Exxon management has wisely decided to partner with another company to expand its acreage in the Smackover. This deal presents a major investment opportunity. Let me explain…

Exxon Teaming with Tetra Technologies

In late June, Exxon agreed to develop more than 6,100 lithium-rich acres in Arkansas with TETRA Technologies (TTI).

So, who the heck is TETRA Technologies? Here is the description from its website:

Founded in 1981, TETRA Technologies is an energy services and solutions company, focused on completion fluids, calcium chloride, water management solutions, frac flowback and production well testing services. Calcium chloride is used in the oil and gas, industrial, agricultural, road, food and beverage markets.

TETRA is evolving its business model by expanding into the low carbon energy markets with its chemistry expertise, key mineral acreage and global infrastructure. Low carbon energy initiatives include commercialization of TETRA PureFlow® ultra-pure zinc bromide clear brine fluid that is used for stationary batteries and energy storage and development of TETRA’s lithium and bromine mineral acreage to meet the growing demand for oil and gas products and energy storage.

The company signed an agreement with Saltwerx to develop 6,138 acres of lithium and bromine-filled salty brine deposits in Arkansas. Saltwerx is a subsidiary of Exxon that it acquired earlier this year when it bought a neighboring Arkansas parcel of 100,000 acres from the aforementioned Galvanic Energy.

By teaming with Exxon, TETRA gains a large partner with capital to help it produce bromine. The company currently buys bromine from Lanxess (LNXSF) to produce a material used by Eos Energy Enterprises (EOSE) to manufacture batteries.

In 2021, TETA started commercial production of a clear zinc-bromide fluid, sourced from Arkansas brine, which it supplies to makers of non-lithium batteries and other energy storage applications.

Even before the Exxon deal kicks in, the company seems to be doing well. On July 31, it reported second quarter results, with revenues hitting a record high (excluding discontinued operations) of $175.5 million. This number was an increase of 25% from the second quarter of 2022 and 20% sequentially.

I really like the deal with energy powerhouse Exxon. Especially when you consider how badly the U.S. needs domestically sourced lithium and bromine in order to create a domestic battery production industry.

TETRA Technologies is a speculative buy anywhere up to $5.50 a share.