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The Three Best Income Plays on the Future of Energy

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine massively disrupted the European energy scene. The crisis revealed what I believe will be the energy story for the next decades: liquefied natural gas (LNG) is the fuel source to power the globe.

A recent report from Texans for Natural Gas highlights how the LNG market has shifted dramatically in response to Russia cutting off energy sources to western Europe.

Let’s take a look at this report – and how to invest for wealth and income from this trend…

Here are some points from the report:

America drastically increased its LNG exports to Europe: 74% of all U.S. exports went to Europe in the first half of 2022. In 2021, exports to Europe only represented 34% of U.S. LNG exports in that same period.The U.S. became the world’s largest LNG exporter in the first half of 2022, with the primary destination of U.S. LNG exports shifting Asia to Europe.Europe must continue to build LNG infrastructure that lets it turn away from threatening foreign actors like Russia.

Liquified natural gas, when “regasified” into natural gas, provides a clean burning energy source that can be used to generate electricity or heat. The challenge with LNG is the massive infrastructure required for liquefaction, transportation, and regasification. However, with the infrastructure in place, LNG can be produced and transported to wherever it is needed most—or wherever it will fetch the best price.

The U.S. contains massive natural gas reserves. Energy companies in the U.S. have the infrastructure that allows the liquefication and shipping of LNG to all parts of the world.

Here are some LNG-focused investment ideas:

Over the last 15 years, Cheniere Energy (LNG) has invested more $20 billion to build the world’s second-largest natural gas liquefaction facility (it has two facilities in total). At Cheniere’s current production level, the company is shifting from reinvesting all free cash flow to slower production growth, combined with paying dividends to investors. Cheniere is the premier stock for investors looking to have LNG exposure.

In a recent presentation, Cheniere noted: “Global demand growth projected by 2040 [is] expected to drive the need for significant incremental LNG supply beyond capacity currently operational and under construction.”

Flex LNG Ltd. (FLNG) is an LNG shipping company with a fleet of thirteen fuel-efficient, fifth-generation LNG carriers. Like many shipping stocks, Flex LNG pays large dividends and currently yields 8.6%.

And finally: Over the last several years, New Fortress Energy (NFE) has been building an end-to-end LNG infrastructure network. The company turned EBITDA positive in 2021 and will generate more than $1 billion of EBITDA this year; New Fortress is forecasting $2.5 billion next year.

Global energy usage is not a static number; as populations grow and economies grow (especially in the second and third world), energy demand will increase. LNG is the energy source that can meet the growing demand for clean available fuel.
It’s not REITs or blue chips like Disney. A small, little-talked about area of the dividend stock market is pumping out market-beating returns like no tomorrow. Over 22 years, they’ve handily beat the market… and I have the #1 stock of these to give you now.

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An Idea to Fight Inflation That Actually Works

In late 2021, when it became apparent that inflation would stay persistent and increasing, I started to get a lot of questions about where to invest.

When inflation rears its ugly head, there is no magic list of investments that help you beat inflation all of the time. While it would be good if there were such a list, I advised looking for companies and stocks that would see profits grow with higher interest rates.

One particular idea I shared has proven to work out very well…

For many months, as inflation took off, the Federal Reserve continued to call the inflation “transitory” and kept interest rates low. While the Consumer Price Index was pushing 8% as early as February, the Fed did not get serious about raising interest rates until April, and the fed funds rate didn’t go above 1.0% until June.

As a result, for those companies that benefit from higher rates, the increases in interest rates have lagged inflation by many months. Only now, as third-quarter earnings come out, do we see the effects of higher rates. In the meantime, the stock market has double dipped into bear market territory, putting us at a point at which these companies are ratcheting up profits and dividends while, at the same time, share prices are low.

Business development companies (BDCs) provide financing solutions for small-to-medium-sized corporations. BDCs operate under special laws that require them to pay out 90% of net investment income as dividends. As a result, BDC shares sport very attractive yields.

Almost all BDCs make variable-rate loans to their client companies. The BDC rules also require a BDC to maintain a low debt-to-equity capital structure. The structure allows a BDC to generate growing net interest income as interest rates increase.

The effects of higher rates kicked in during the 2022 third quarter. BDC dividend increases have been hitting my inbox almost daily. It’s gotten a level at which, if you own shares of a BDC that hasn’t increased its dividend, I would look at selling and investing in one that is now growing its payout.

Here are the four largest BDCs by market cap, with their most recent dividend changes:

On October 25, Ares Capital Corp. (ARCC) announced a $0.48 per share dividend to be paid on December 29. The new dividend was 12.3% more than the previous dividend. Ares has increased its dividend twice this year and paid several small supplemental dividends; it yields 9.7%.

FS KKR Capital Corp (FSK) pays a variable dividend. The company paid $0.68 per share in July and $0.67 in October; and on November 7, it declared a $0.68 dividend to be paid on January 3. The shares yield 12.7%.

Before its last dividend announcement on November 2, Owl Rock Capital Corp. (ORCC) had paid a level dividend since its July 2019 IPO. On November 2, ORCC increased its dividend by 6.5%. Company management also announced supplemental quarterly dividends would be paid as profits allow. Owl Rock Capital yields 10.2%.

On September 7, Blackstone Secured Lending (BXSL) increased its dividend by 13.2%. The company has also paid hefty supplemental dividends. This BDC is just a year old, so investors should review quarterly earnings to look for a trend of future dividends. Blackstone Secured Lending yields 10.2%.

You can see how the BDC sector is on a path of growing dividends combined with excellent yields. Dozens of companies use the BDC business structure, and with the Fed continuing to raise rates, 2023 will be a great year for BDC dividends.
It’s raised its dividend 37.5% on average, could be acquired, benefits from rising interest rates, trading at massive discount, and pays an 8% yield. This is my top pick for income during a rough market.Click here for details.

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Make Your Portfolio More “Chipper”

There is no doubt that semiconductor stocks have underperformed the overall stock market. Since early October, the S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY) has outpaced the Semiconductor Index ETF (SOXX) by 26%.

A big reason for this was because several large consumer-facing companies found themselves with too much inventory. Companies that make electronic consumer goods, such as PCs, smart TVs, smartphones, and game consoles stockpiled chips when supply-chain problems left them unsure they could meet demand for their products during the pandemic lockdowns.

But when the economy reopened in earnest earlier this year, the demand for electronic products collapsed as people returned to the office and shifted spending to services and travel. This, in turn, forced semiconductor manufacturers like Intel (INTC) to cut production.

However, the inventory problems dogging many in the chip industry should clear in the coming months. And while it may be early, it’s still a good time to look for opportunities in semiconductor stocks…

A good example of this is a company that was once a leader in the industry, dragged down by poor management and now once again trying to become a chip powerhouse. That company is the aforementioned Intel.

Intel’s Transformation

Since returning to Intel as CEO in early 2021, Pat Gelsinger—who had previously been at Intel from 1979 to 2009—has been focused on a mission: to transform the biggest semiconductor company in the U.S. into a major contract chipmaker that will rival Samsung and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM). And if Gelsinger manages to pull it off, Intel’s transformation will completely reshape the global semiconductor industry.

Keep in mind that Intel built its business designing and making its own cutting-edge semiconductors, mainly for PCs and servers. Manufacturing chips for external customers—known as the foundry business–is new territory for Intel. Asian rivals, like Samsung and Taiwan Semiconductor, have dominated the global foundry market for many decades.

Gelsinger’s strategy is certainly an expensive one. Since he announced the company’s pivot in March 2021, Intel has planned spending of more than $70 billion for building and expanding its chip fabrication facilities, or fabs. The company’s spending plans include:

$20 billion for a chip facility in OhioNearly $17 billion to build a plant in Germany$3.5 billion to expand its chip packaging facility in New MexicoA $20 billion investment in Arizona fabsA nearly $17 billion expansion in Ireland.

On top of all that, Intel acquired the Israeli foundry firm Tower Semiconductor for $5.4 billion in February.

Intel hopes its massive bet will pay off. The company expects the foundry business will not only become a major new revenue source, but also a way to regain the technological edge in chip manufacturing lost to Asia over the past few decades.

Can Intel Pull It Off?

Wall Street hates Intel’s strategy. Its share price has more than halved since it embarked on its transformation, because Wall Street focuses on the short-term.

However, Intel does still hold the lion’s share of the PC and server processor markets.

Of course, the current slowing global demand for chips has hit Intel. The company reported a 20% year-over-year drop in its third-quarter revenue, and lowered its 2022 full-year revenue outlook to between $63 billion and $64 billion, down as much as $4 billion from its previous guidance.

Coupled with the heavy spending on its new foundry business, the company is now expecting to end 2022 with a negative $2 billion to $4 billion free cash flow, compared to the negative $1 billion to $2 billion it projected earlier this year.

I believe Gelsinger’s plan is sound. However, for it to work, Intel will need to win over customers from Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung.

Intel has previously said that Qualcomm, Amazon’s AWS, and MediaTek have all signed up to use its manufacturing services. But it did not announce any new customers for the July–September quarter.

The key question is whether Intel can catch up in chip manufacturing technology. TSM and Samsung both began production of industry-leading 3-nanometer chips this year and aim to put 2-nanometer chips into production by 2025.

Meanwhile, Intel has still not been able to mass produce 5-nanometer chips, which are widely used in electronic products like smartphones.

But the company does say that it will begin manufacturing Intel 3 chips—its answer to TSM’s 3-nm tech—in the second half of 2023. Intel 18A production, intended to compete with TSM’s 2-nm chips, is slated to start in the second half of the following year.

Intel needs a lot more than just technology advancements. It has to build up a third-party intellectual property portfolio, design services to meet specific customer needs, and create a chip packaging and testing ecosystem with partners. All of these steps will then make it easier for customers to use Intel’s chip manufacturing process.

Keep in mind, too, that Intel has made a string of very savvy acquisitions to build its AI and automotive product offerings, including Altera, Habana Labs, Movidius, and Mobileye (MBLY), which IPO’d on October 26.

Can Intel make a successful transformation? I believe it can, with the aid of the U.S. government, which is in the midst of its geopolitical/technology battle with China.

I rate Intel as a speculative buy. Its balance sheet is still sound. At the end of 2021, it held about $38.1 billion in total debt and $28.4 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments. The company still has ample resources for now to meet its debt obligations, capital expenditure requirements, potential acquisitions, and shareholder returns.

In the meantime, you can collect a nice quarterly dividend from INTC—shares currently yield 5.13%. Intel has paid out quarterly dividends ranging from $0.02 to $0.37 per share since December 1, 1992, and over the past five years, Intel’s dividend yield has averaged 2.4% per year, making the current yield quite attractive.

The stock is a buy in the mid- to upper 20s.
It’s not REITs or blue chips like Disney. A small, little-talked about area of the dividend stock market is pumping out market-beating returns like no tomorrow. Over 22 years, they’ve handily beat the market… and I have the #1 stock of these to give you now.

Make Your Portfolio More “Chipper” Read More »

Two Surprise Dividend Hikes from High-Yield ETFs

Last week, I made several presentations at the MoneyShow conference in Orlando. For one talk, I covered the pros and cons of covered call ETFs. These high-yield ETFs can bring a lot of income into your portfolio.

This week, two of my recommendations announced surprisingly large distributions. I’ll take the money!

Let’s take a look at both…

Covered call ETFs employ an options selling strategy to generate income and dividends from an underlying portfolio. You can find these ETFs based on the major stock market indexes and also commodity ETFs such as crude oil, gold, and silver.

These ETFs pay monthly dividends. The dividends are variable but typically provide yields in the low teens for the index tracking funds, and the commodity funds sometimes yield up into the high teens.

During my MoneyShow presentation, I covered the details of 13 different covered call ETFs. Three of those are recommended investments in my Dividend Hunter service. Last week, two of the three made their monthly dividend announcements, and I was very happily shocked.

The JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF (JEPI) announced a $0.60627 distribution paid on November 4. The October dividend was $0.48084. This year, the distributions ranged from $0.38181 to $0.62102. Based on the trailing three dividends, JEPI yields 12.2%. The JP Morgan website shows a 30-day SEC yield of 12.51%.

The JPMorgan Nasdaq Equity Premium Income ETF (JEPQ) declared a $0.68125 distribution, also paid on November 4. The October dividend was $0.37954. JEPQ is a new ETF and has only paid dividends since June. The current yield, based on trailing dividends, is 15.1%. The SEC yield shows an eye-popping 17.51%.

I have no idea how they calculate the SEC yields for a covered call fund, so take those with a very large grain of salt.

Also, these funds pay variable dividends, and a big one this month foretells nothing about next month. If you invest in these funds, be prepared for some monthly payouts to be lower and some, like this month, to be higher.

With my Dividend Hunter recommendations list, I have a balance of stable dividend investments, variable dividend investments, and some dividend growth investments. The goal is to earn a high yield with predictable income.
What’s the one thing you need to stay retired? That’s right… cash. Money to pay the bills. Money to weather any financial crisis like the one we’re in now and whatever comes next. I’ve located three stocks that if you buy and hold them forever, they could serve as the backbone to your retirement. Click here for details.

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The Pros and Cons of Investing in Whisk(e)y

Last week I made several presentations at the MoneyShow in Orlando. I enjoy shows like this, where I can meet you, my subscribers, and get information on other investment ideas. With the stock bear market this year, many investors wanted information about alternate investment ideas.

Investing in whiskey barrels or casks has become a hot idea, so I spent time with experts in the field, learning the pros and cons.

While it sounds interesting – and I’m doing it myself – there are some things to look out for…

Let’s start with the good stuff (not including the fact you get to invest in whiskey). You can buy a cask of bourbon, Irish whiskey, or Scotch whisky for roughly $3,000 to $10,000, a reachable amount for many investors. Whiskey is a hot commodity, producing annual returns in the mid-to-high teens, which means a double of your investment in three to five years.

I was surprised to learn about the potential for bourbon. Bourbon whiskey can only be produced in the U.S.; however, it has become a worldwide hit, with drinkers around the globe eager to try our bourbons. Whiskey distillers are working hard to satisfy domestic, let alone international, demand, so the demand curve for barrel investors looks very attractive.

I like to say “barrels,” but the whiskey experts I talked to insist the correct term is “casks.” I think that applies more to Irish whiskey and Scotch whisky.

Overall, it appears that whiskey casks offer excellent investment opportunities. So let’s look at the negatives.

For one thing, the whiskey investment market is scorching and unregulated. As a result, a lot of new sellers are jumping into the whiskey-selling business to make a quick buck.

When you buy a cask, you get a certificate of ownership with the number and location of the barrel. That will be your barrel. A couple of things could turn your investment sour. (And not the good kind, like a whiskey sour). If the seller disappears after a few years, you may have a lot of trouble selling to realize your profits—even though you are the owner of record of some whiskey in the barrel. Even worse, you may be scammed into buying a non-existent barrel. In that case, you would be out of your entire investment.

Don’t jump into whiskey investing through an email ad or telemarketing call. You need to verify that the seller is legitimate and committed to the whiskey trading game for the long term.

At the MoneyShow, I spent time with the CEO of OENO Futures, the company I use for fine wine investing. I spent several hours getting information about the whiskey house they partner with and recommend.

I hope that by this week, I will have my first couple of casks purchased. I will go for a bourbon barrel and an Irish whiskey cask.
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Make Fast Profits with These “Twin Momentum” Stocks

The whole growth-versus-value investing debate must be one of the dumbest discussions of all time.

That may sound funny coming from someone who uses a value-oriented approach to picking bank stocks, REITs, and closed-end funds. Surely, I of all people believe that value investing works.

It’s true – I do believe it works, and I have proven it does to myself, my clients, and my subscribers for decades.

But that doesn’t mean I think growth investing doesn’t work.

In fact, I have learned over the last decade that a growth investing method I like to call “Twin Momentum” works – and works very well.

Today, let me show you just how well it works – and give you a few Twin Momentum stock plays…

Twin Momentum, the way I use it, means both that the company’s fundamentals are strong, and that the stock has had strong price momentum over the past year.

Over the weekend, I sat down and ran a simple screen that can help us find candidates for a Twin Momentum approach to growth stock investing. I limited the scope to just those companies that have been earnings high returns for their owners on a consistent basis.

Then I wanted to see decent buyback rates over the past five years. The fact that a company has been actively buying back stocks means that after covering all expenses and investing in growth, it had cash left over and was willing to return it to shareholders.

Now we are looking only at companies earning high returns that are also shareholder friendly.

And then I just buy the ones that have shown the highest price momentum over the past year.

This is a simple approach that can be rebalanced quarterly and does not require sitting in front of the screen all day. It handily beats the S&P 500 and even edges out the market-leading NASDAQ 100 index over the last five years, when tech stocks were rocket ships to profits.

It even outperforms in down years like 2018 and 2022. This simple Twin Momentum approach to growth investing was down just 3.29% in 2018, while the S&P 500 dropped by 6.24%. This year, with the S&P 500 down by 20% (as of this writing), the Twin Momentum approach is down just 11.31%.

When I ran this Twin Momentum list last weekend, I came up with some interesting names. It was not the super sexy stocks that made a list. Instead, it was companies that make the products that fulfill our daily needs.

To my wife’s great dismay, one of my favorite road trip spots to stop for a mid-morning breakfast is Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc. (CBRL). I do not care a bit for its giant rocking chairs or down-home country store.

I am there for one thing and one thing only: chicken fried steak and eggs.

For my money, Cracker Barrel has the best chicken fried steak and eggs of any chain restaurant in America. I have found better in some of the out-of-the-way diners into which I have dragged my poor bride over the years, but when it comes time to is hit the off-ramp for breakfast or lunch, Cracker Barrel is my go-to choice.

It turns out Cracker Barrel not only makes a mean breakfast, but the company also produces pretty high returns on the cash its shareholders have invested in the business. Over the last ten years, Cracker Barrel has produced an average return on equity of over 30%.

It is also buying back an average of about 1.3% of the company every year. Cracker Barrel recently hiked its dividend back up to the pre-pandemic level of $1.30 a share, giving us a yield of about 3.85%.

The company is definitely shareholder friendly.

Cracker Barrel stock has held up much better than the market in 2022, falling by slightly more than 13%. In the last three months, momentum has accelerated, with the stock rising up more than 17%, while the S&P 500 is down almost 8% over the same timeframe.

Another intriguing company on the Twin Momentum list I pulled is Donaldson Co. Inc. (DCI). Donaldson does not make any fancy technology products. It does not manufacture breakthrough life-saving drugs or medical devices.

It does not even make a great breakfast.

However, you can’t really make any of these things without using some of Donaldson’s products. The company makes air filters that make the clean rooms needed to manufacture semiconductor chips. Its housings and filters are needed to provide sterile-grade air and water for biotechnology research. Filters like Donaldson’s are used to process almost every ingredient in Cracker Barrel’s delicious chicken fried steak.

In fact, there are not too many industries that do not use Donaldson filters for some part of the manufacturing process.

It may sound like a boring business, but this company has delivered an average return on equity of more than 25% to its shareholders for the last decade. It buys back about 1.2% of the company annually and pays a dividend of 1.64%.

The stock has healthy price momentum as well. With the S&P 500 down 20% on the year, Donaldson shares are off by just a little more than 5%.

In the last three months, the stock is up more than 11%, with the index down almost 8%.

These are just two of the Twin Momentum stocks that I found intriguing. The rest of the list for the current portfolio of potential market-beating stocks is:

Avery Dennison Corp. (AVY)Chemed Corp. (CHE)Credit Acceptance Corp. (CACC)United Rentals Inc. (URI)Diamond Hill Investment Group Inc. (DHIL)Discover Financial Services (DFS)FMC Corp. (FMC)
It’s raised its dividend 37.5% on average, could be acquired, benefits from rising interest rates, trades at massive discount, and pays an 8% yield. This is my top pick for income during a rough market. Click here for details.

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Adobe’s Big Bet

On September 15, Adobe (ADBE) agreed to purchase the privately held design software company Figma for roughly $20 billion.

The purchase price, which Adobe will pay half in cash and half in stock, is double what Figma was valued at in its most recent private funding round in 2021, and 10 times its 2019 valuation. At the time of signing, the acquisition was the most expensive ever of a private U.S. company, topping Facebook’s $19 billion purchase of WhatsApp in 2014.

The deal valued the company, founded in 2012, at 50 times its annual recurring revenue, which Adobe said would top $400 million in 2022.

Is Adobe a buy after this deal? Let’s take a look…

What Figma Does

Figma allows software developers to collaborate remotely and design everything from slides for presentations to user interfaces on mobile apps. It is part of a wave of new browser-based design tools that have opened up the creative process to millions of non-designers—something that expanded the market and presented a potential threat to Adobe, the traditional leader in design software. Figma’s collaborative-design-workspace is in direct competition with Adobe’s XD.

The main difference is that Figma is free for individual users. Adopting a try-before-you-buy model has allowed product teams to experiment with Figma without the need for a sign-off from an IT purchasing manager. This is how it crept into the operations of many important Adobe customers, including Microsoft (MSFT).

In August, CNBC profiled Figma’s growth inside Microsoft. Here is one item from that profile: “The product has since become so central to how Microsoft’s designers do their jobs that Jon Friedman, corporate vice-president of design and research, said Figma is “like air and water for us.”

With its importance to such a major customer, it’s really no surprise that Adobe bought Figma—it was obviously afraid of losing market share.

Figma’s web-based tools would give Adobe a better shot at the “more modern, cloud based, composable and open future” that is opening up for design software, said Liz Miller, an analyst at Constellation Research, to the Financial Times. The merger will also allow Figma to bring Adobe’s capabilities in imaging, 3D and video on to its platform. And obviously, Adobe will have the opportunity to tap into the millions of customers using Figma, which enjoyed a boom during the pandemic as remote work flourished.

Wall Street’s Thumbs Down

Wall Street hated the deal though, sending Adobe’s stock tumbling more than 20% after the announcement, saying it is paying too much for Figma.

But Adobe has been here before. In 2011, it was running out of room to grow in the market for selling desktop software to professional designers, so it took a gamble, becoming one of the first software companies that cut off sales of packaged software and moved to the cloud in pursuit of growth.

At the time, Wall Street analysts turned their thumbs down on that strategy, too. Analysts saw the move as merely a way to sell a bit more design software to Adobe’s existing 12 million to 13 million customers. They were spectacularly wrong. What actually did happen was that user numbers for Adobe’s Creative Cloud have today risen to more than 30 million.

Adobe’s bet paid off, setting an example of how to navigate the transition to the cloud for the entire software industry.

The move remains a stupendous success was a stupendous success. Abobe’s transition to cloud-based subscriptions, under which users pay a monthly fee, has been a bonanza for the company. Subscriptions now account for about 92% of the company’s revenue.

It’s a Needed Deal

Figma’s web-first approach gives customers new ways to use design software and opens the market up to a lot more users, much as the cloud had before. It also appeals to a new generation of users who have grown up using the web.

Adobe’s gamble is that once again—as often occurs when new generations of technology appear—the new market will end up being much larger than the old one. That translates to offering very low-priced versions of a product or letting some customers use the product for free.

Adobe was already moving in this direction, announcing a “freemium” version of its software last year that was aimed at taking on Canva. This Australian start-up design software company is the most notable exponent of this browser-based revolution in design software and the most direct long-term threat to Adobe’s mainstream design business.

In other words, Adobe’s purchase of Figma was a necessary deal in its battle against Canva, which has just begun.

While ADBE stock has recovered 13% from the September low, it is still down nearly 50% over the past year and more than 40% year-to-date.

But I like the Figma acquisition, so I believe Adobe is a buy anywhere up to $350 a share.
That’s what my old coworker told me years ago. I listened up because he was the most successful broker I ever worked with. And also incredibly lazy. He found a small niche in the market no one talks about and made enough to buy in the most expensive zip code in Maryland. Here’s what he invested in.

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