INO.com

The last few years have been difficult for the airline industry as it was among the biggest losers when the pandemic first hit in early 2020. However, with lesser restrictions on travel, the airline industry has bounced back strongly and is close to surpassing the pre-pandemic performance levels.
Delta Air Lines, Inc.’s (DAL) earnings and revenue exceeded analyst estimates in the fourth quarter.
Its EPS came 11.9% above the consensus estimate, while its revenue beat the estimate by 6.6%. The company’s operating margin came in at 10.9%, while its adjusted operating margin came in at 11.6%.
DAL’s CEO Ed Bastian said, “Delta people rose to the challenges of 2022, delivering industry-leading operational reliability and financial performance, and I’m looking forward to recognizing their achievements with over $500 million in profit-sharing payments next month.”
Glen Hauenstein, DAL’s President, said, “For the year, we delivered $45.60 billion in adjusted revenue, a $19 billion increase over the prior year, with record unit revenue performance expected to sustain a revenue premium to the industry of more than 110%. Momentum continues in 2023 with strong demand trends, and we expect March quarter adjusted revenue to be 14 to 17% higher than 2019 on capacity that is 1 percent lower.”

The company’s revenue passenger miles for the fourth quarter increased 24.9% year-over-year to 50.47 billion. Its passenger revenue per available seat mile increased 30.8% year-over-year to 18.30 cents.
Also, its total revenue per available seat mile (TRASM) increased 23.4% from the prior-year period to 22.58 cents. In addition, its total passenger revenue increased 50.4% year-over-year to $10.89 billion.
For the fiscal first quarter ending March 31, 2023, DAL expects its total revenue to increase 14% to 17% over the same quarter of 2019 and its operating margin to come in between 4% and 6%. Its EPS is expected to come between $0.15 and $0.40. For fiscal 2023, DAL expects its total revenue to increase 15% to 20% and operating margin to rise 10% to 12% over the previous year. Its EPS is expected to come between $5 to $6.
DAL’s CEO Ed Bastian said, “As we move into 2023, the industry backdrop for air travel remains favorable, and Delta is well positioned to deliver significant earnings and free cash flow growth.”
DAL’s President Glen Hauenstein said, “The recent rise in COVID cases associated with the omicron variant is expected to impact the pace of demand recovery early in the quarter, with recovery momentum resuming from President’s day weekend forward. Factoring this in to our outlook, we expect total March quarter revenue to recover to 72% to 76% of 2019 levels, compared to 74% in the December quarter.”
DAL is trading at a discount to its peers. The airline’s forward non-GAAP P/E of 7.40x is 57.1% lower than the 17.23x industry average. Its forward EV/EBITDA of 6.08x is 44.6% lower than the 10.97x industry average. Also, the stock’s 0.44x forward P/S is 66.6% lower than the 1.32x industry average.
DAL’s stock has gained 22.9% in price over the past three months and 27.2% over the past six months to close the last trading session at $38.26. Wall Street analysts expect the stock to hit $51 in the near term, indicating a potential upside of 33.3%.
Here’s what could influence DAL’s performance in the upcoming months:
Robust Financials
DAL’s total operating revenue for the year ended December 31, 2022, increased 69.2% year-over-year to $50.58 billion. Its operating income increased 94.1% year-over-year to $3.66 billion.
The company’s operating revenue increased 41.9% year-over-year to $13.44 billion for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2022. Its non-GAAP net income increased 564.3% year-over-year to $950 million. In addition, its non-GAAP EPS came in at $1.48, representing an increase of 572.7% year-over-year.
Favorable Analyst Estimates
DAL’s EPS for fiscal 2023 and 2024 are expected to increase 61.6% and 29.8% year-over-year to $5.17 and $6.71, respectively. Its revenue for fiscal 2023 and 2024 is expected to increase 9.7% and 0.9% year-over-year to $55.49 billion and $56.01 billion, respectively.
Mixed Profitability
In terms of the trailing-12-month EBIT margin, DAL’s 7.57% is 22.2% lower than the 9.73% industry average. Its 2.61% trailing-12-month net income margin is 61.4% lower than the 6.75% industry average.
On the other hand, its 25.49% trailing-12-month Return on Common Equity is 79.6% higher than the industry average of 14.19%. In addition, its 10.64% trailing-12-month Capex/Sales is 259.6% higher than the industry average of 2.96% industry average.
Technical Indicators Show Promise
According to MarketClub’s Trade Triangles, the long-term trend for DAL has been UP since November 10, 2022, and its intermediate-term trend has been UP since January 6, 2023. However, the stock’s short-term trend has been DOWN since January 13, 2023.
Source: MarketClub
The Trade Triangles are our proprietary indicators, comprised of weighted factors that include (but are not necessarily limited to) price change, percentage change, moving averages, and new highs/lows. The Trade Triangles point in the direction of short-term, intermediate, and long-term trends, looking for periods of alignment and, therefore, intense swings in price.

In terms of the Chart Analysis Score, another MarketClub proprietary tool, DAL, scored +85 on a scale from -100 (strong downtrend) to +100 (strong uptrend. While DAL shows short-term weakness, traders may look for the longer-term bullish trend to resume.

The Chart Analysis Score measures trend strength and direction based on five different timing thresholds. This tool takes into account intraday price action, new daily, weekly, and monthly highs and lows, and moving averages.
Click here to see the latest Score and Signals for DAL.
What’s Next for Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL)?
Remember, the markets move fast and things may quickly change for this stock. Our MarketClub members have access to entry and exit signals so they’ll know when the trend starts to reverse.
Join MarketClub now to see the latest signals and scores, get alerts, and read member-exclusive analysis for over 350K stocks, futures, ETFs, forex pairs and mutual funds.
Start Your MarketClub Trial
Best,The MarketClub Team[email protected]

With retail sales declining more sharply than expected during the holiday month and the third consecutive month of contraction in industrial activity, there is concern on Wall Street that the Federal Reserve may have overcooked it with respect to interest-rate hikes to cool down and contain inflation.
Amid widespread bearish sentiments, it could be wise to bank on fundamentally strong, profitable, and fairly-priced sector-leading businesses, such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM).
Headquartered in Hsinchu City, Taiwan, TSM provides integrated circuit manufacturing services globally. This involves manufacturing, packaging, testing, and selling integrated circuits and other semiconductor devices.
The super-advanced semiconductor chips that TSM produces are difficult to fabricate due to their high development costs. Hence, this presents a significant barrier to entry into the competition.

On December 29, 2022, TSM held a 3 nanometer (3nm) Volume Production and Capacity Expansion Ceremony at its Fab 18 new construction site in the Southern Taiwan Science Park (STSP).
TSM announced that 3nm technology has successfully entered volume production with good yields. The company estimates that the technology will create end products with a market value of $1.5 trillion within five years of volume production.
On December 6, TSM updated that in addition to its first fab in Arizona, which is scheduled to begin production in 2024, it has also started the construction of a second fab, scheduled to begin production in 2026.
The overall investment for these two fabs will be approximately $40 billion. When complete, TSM Arizona’s two fabs will manufacture over 600,000 wafers annually, with an estimated end-product value of more than $40 billion.
On November 15, it was revealed that Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) spent $4.1 billion to acquire a stake in the world’s largest contract chipmaker during the third quarter. According to SEC filings, the fabled conglomerate bought just over 60 million of TSM’s New York-listed American Depositary Shares at an average price of around $68.56.
Mirroring the positive developments, the stock has gained 16.9% over the past month to close the last trading session at $89.47.

 Loading …
TSM is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages of $77.44 and $82.48, respectively, indicating an uptrend.
Here is what may help the stock maintain its performance in the near term.
Solid Track Record
Over the past three years, TSM’s revenue has exhibited a 28.4% CAGR, while its EBITDA has grown at a stellar 33.4% CAGR. The company has increased its net income and EPS at a 42.1% CAGR during the same period.
Robust Financials
Despite the fourth quarter of fiscal 2022 ended December 31, characterized by end-market softness and customers’ inventory adjustment, TSM’s net sales increased 42.8% year-over-year to NT$625.53 billion ($20.63 billion), while its income from operations increased 77.8% year-over-year to NT$325.04 billion ($10.72 billion).
During the same period, TSM’s net income and EPS increased 78% to NT$295.90 billion ($9.76 billion) or NT$11.41 per share.
Attractive Valuation
Despite solid financials and upward momentum in price, TSM is still trading at a discount compared to its peers, thereby indicating upside potential. In terms of forward P/E, the stock is trading at 15.73x, 18.9% lower than the industry average of 19.40x.
In terms of the forward EV/EBITDA, TSM is currently trading at 7.94x, which is 40.2% lower than the industry average of 13.26x. Its forward Price/Cash Flow of 8.42x also compares favorably to the industry average of 18.30x.
Favorable Analyst Estimates for Next Year
While TSM expects a challenging fiscal amid weak overall macroeconomic conditions, analysts expect the company’s revenue for the fiscal ending December 2023 to increase 2.2% year-over-year to $76.12 billion.During the fiscal ending December 2024, TSM’s revenue is expected to increase 20.7% year-over-year to $91.88 billion, while its EPS is expected to increase 23% year-over-year to $7.00.
TSM has also impressed by surpassing consensus EPS estimates in each of the trailing four quarters.
Technical Indicators Look Promising
MarketClub’s Trade Triangles show that TSM has been trending UP for each of the three time horizons. The long-term trend has been UP since December 1, 2022, while the intermediate-term and short-term trends have been UP since January 9, 2023, and December 29, 2022, respectively.
Source: MarketClub
The Trade Triangles are our proprietary indicators, comprised of weighted factors that include (but are not necessarily limited to) price change, percentage change, moving averages, and new highs/lows. The Trade Triangles point in the direction of short-term, intermediate, and long-term trends, looking for periods of alignment and, therefore, strong swings in price.

In terms of the Chart Analysis Score, another MarketClub proprietary tool, TSM scored +90 on a scale from -100 (strong downtrend) to +100 (strong uptrend), indicating that the uptrend will likely continue. While TSM is showing intraday weakness, it remains in the confines of a bullish trend. Traders should use caution and utilize a stop order.

The Chart Analysis Score measures trend strength and direction based on five different timing thresholds. This tool takes into account intraday price action, new daily, weekly, and monthly highs and lows, and moving averages.
Click here to see the latest Score and Signals for TSM.
What’s Next for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM)?
Remember, the markets move fast and things may quickly change for this stock. Our MarketClub members have access to entry and exit signals so they’ll know when the trend starts to reverse.
Join MarketClub now to see the latest signals and scores, get alerts, and read member-exclusive analysis for over 350K stocks, futures, ETFs, forex pairs and mutual funds.
Start Your MarketClub Trial
Best,The MarketClub Team[email protected]

A new Exchange Traded Fund is taking the next step with gender diversity investing. The Hypatia Women CEO ETF (WCEO) is the first ETF to focus strictly on women-run companies.
The only two requirements for a company be owned in WCEO are that it has a market cap of at least $500 million and a woman runs the company, either from the CEO or Chairperson position.
WCEO will have at least 80% of its assets in US companies that female Chief Executive Officers lead. Furthermore, the fund may invest up to 20% of holdings in US companies with an Executive Chairperson or a Chairperson who is female.
WCEO is a one-of-a-kind ETF, but it does have some competition if an investor is looking for a woman-focused ETF.

The Impact Shares YWCA Women’s Empowerment ETF (WOMN) tracks an index of large and mid-cap US equities selected and weighted to maximize exposure to firms that score highly on gender diversity.
WCEO has an expense ratio of 0.85% and just began trading in January. WOMN has an expense ratio of 0.75%, has been trading for about four years, and has over 200 holdings. Year-to-date, the fund is up 4.7%, down 12.41% over the last year, but up 11.83% annualized over the previous three years.
Another ETF focusing on women in the workforce is the SPDR MSCI USA Gender Diversity ETF (SHE). SHE tracks a market cap-weighted index of large and mid-size US companies that promote gender diversity through a relatively high proportion of women throughout all levels of their organization.
SHE has been trading for about seven years and has an expense ratio of 0.20%, the best out of this group. Year-to-date SHE is up 3.88%, down 14.48%, but up 2.53% annualized over the last three years and 4.82% annualized over the previous five years.
While each of these three ETFs promotes the idea of gender diversity in the workplace, WCEO has taken it to the next level, and I believe the requirement for a company to be run by a woman will set this ETF apart from the rest over the next few years.
I feel WCEO is a good buy because, over the last few years, we have continued to get more evidence indicating that women are better leaders than men. One recent example of this is the Covid pandemic, in which women-run countries managed the crisis better. Another study showed that US states with women governors had fewer people die than states with male governors.
A study on leadership performed by Jack Zenger and Joseph Folkman found that women were rated more competent on every level of leadership than men. This study used 360 assessments to evaluate the effectiveness and get an accurate result.
If you aren’t yet sold, this may help push you over the edge. As of May 2022, 32 companies in the S&P 500 were led by women. If we look at the performance of those 32 companies compared to the rest of the S&P 500 over the past ten years, the results are the female lead companies rose 384% compared to just a 261% increase by the male lead businesses.
Let me leave you with one more thought. There is a story about Billy Beane, the manager of the Oakland A’s baseball team and a key figure in the movie “Moneyball.” If you recall, in the film, Billy Beane went out and found players that didn’t necessarily appeal to the scouts because of their physical appearance or something as small as the way they threw a baseball, say, sidearm.

Apparently, this way of thinking was how he made stock picks. The story goes that he would buy stocks based on how the CEO looked. He would only invest in companies that did not have a tall white male CEO.
It is said that he thought some, or even most, tall white men gained respect and where eventually promoted to CEO because of their physical appearance, not because of their ability. Billy Beane wanted a CEO that gained their position because they earned it based on skill and business knowledge.
So if you want to invest like Billy Beane, or ‘Moneyball’ investing, try out the new ETF WCEO and invest with the women.
Matt ThalmanINO.com ContributorFollow me on Twitter @mthalman5513
Disclosure: This contributor did not hold a position in any investment mentioned above at the time this blog post was published. This article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. This contributor is not receiving compensation (other than from INO.com) for their opinion.

2022 was a year to forget for investors and one of the worst years in history for the 60/40 stock/bond portfolio strategy in history.
This was evidenced by both assets posting double-digit declines, with the S&P 500 (SPY) actually performing the best with a 20% decline for the year, which says a lot about the magnitude of the decline in bonds.
Fortunately, 2023 is off to a better start, and while the S&P 500 entered the year in rough shape, the Nasdaq Composite was over 30%, with sentiment for the tech sector arguably the worst it’s been in nearly a decade.
This has set up some oversold buying opportunities, and some tech names have ~65% of their value, placing them in an interesting position from a valuation standpoint.

In this update, we’ll look at two tech stocks that look to have finally bottomed and where investors could find some value in buying the dip.
Crowdstrike (CRWD)
Crowdstrike (CRWD) is a $24 billion company in the cybersecurity space, and it continues to be one of the fastest-growing companies globally, increasing annual revenue from $119 million in FY2018 to $1.45 billion in FY2022, and sales estimates are sitting at $3.8 billion for FY2025.
The company is currently the market leader in endpoint security. Its flagship product is the Falcon Platform, with continuous AI analytics on trillions of signals helping to defend the thousands of customers on its platform.
As of the company’s most recent quarter, it has 15 of the top 20 US banks on its platform, 537 of the Global 2000 companies, and 21,100 customers in total.
Notably, the company is certainly not seeing a slowdown in line with other S&P 500 companies in this recessionary environment, growing customers by 44% year-over-year and revenue by 53% to $580.9 million.
The result is that Crowdstrike is set to grow annual EPS yet again this year by a market-leading 130%, with annual EPS estimates sitting at $1.54, up from $0.67 last year. This growth is expected to continue in FY2024, with annual EPS set to come in at $2.02.
(Source: Company Filings, Author’s Chart, FactSet Estimates)
Based on what I believe to be a fair earnings multiple of 65 to reflect Crowdstrike’s market-leading growth rates and positioning as a leader in its industry, I see a fair value for the stock of $131.30, pointing to 30% upside from current levels (FY2024 estimates: $2.02).
However, Crowdstrike is likely to triple annual EPS by F2027 to $6.50,, and even at a more conservative multiple of 50, this would translate to a fair value of $325.00 per share (230% upside from current levels).
So, for investors looking for high growth at a reasonable price, I would view any pullback below $99.00 on CRWD as low-risk buying opportunities for an initial position.
Intuit (INTU)
Intuit (INTU) is a $110 billion company in the computer software industry group and is best known for QuickBooks, an accounting software package developed and marketed by the company and first offered in 1983.
Like Crowdstrike, Intuit has seen incredible earnings growth over the past several years and, despite the recessionary environment, continues to see strong top-line growth as well. This was evidenced by revenue of $2,597 million in Q1 2023, a 29% increase from the year-ago period.
At the same time, margins have seen minimal contraction, coming in at 75.5%, with annual EPS up 9% to $1.66.
Unfortunately, with the higher interest rate environment leading to multiple compression across the market as higher discount rates are used to calculate future cash flows, Intuit has suffered materially.
This is evidenced by its share price decline by nearly 55% to a recent low of $352.00 (all-time high: $717.00). In addition, revenue in its Credit Karma segment was softer than expected, with guidance revised to a decline of 10-15% year-over-year vs. 10-15% growth, a massive guidance cut.
Still, the company still expects to grow annual EPS year-over-year due to strength in other categories, on track to report annual EPS of $13.69 in FY2023, a 16% increase year-over-year.
(Source: Company Filings, Author’s Chart, FactSet)
Historically, Intuit has traded at an average earnings multiple of 37 (10-year average), and the stock is currently trading at just ~25.2x FY2024 estimates at a share price of $390.00. This leaves the stock trading at a deep discount to historical multiples, and even based on a more conservative multiple of 32.0x earnings, I see a fair value for Intuit of $495.30.

If we measure from a current share price of $390.00, this translates to a 27% upside to fair value but assumes that Intuit doesn’t beat what I would consider conservative estimates.
So, if the stock were to decline below $373.00, which would give it a 33% upside to fair value, I would view this as a buying opportunity.
While the tech sector is full of unprofitable land mines, Intuit and Crowdstrike are unique because they are profitable and growing rapidly, but they’ve been thrown out with the bathwater.
Just as importantly, they’re now trading at more reasonable valuations and are oversold on their long-term charts. So, if we see further weakness in these names, I would view this as a buying opportunity.
Disclosure: I am long CRWD
Taylor DartINO.com Contributor
Disclaimer: This article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. Taylor Dart is not a Registered Investment Advisor or Financial Planner. This writing is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation to buy, or a recommendation regarding any securities transaction. The information contained in this writing should not be construed as financial or investment advice on any subject matter. Taylor Dart expressly disclaims all liability in respect to actions taken based on any or all of the information in this writing.

Please enjoy this updated version of weekly commentary from the Reitmeister Total Return newsletter. Steve Reitmeister is the CEO of StockNews.com and Editor of the Reitmeister Total Return.
Click Here to learn more about Reitmeister Total Return

It been roughly 40 years since investors have been faced with high inflation as the cause of a recession and bear market. And yet we have been dealt 5 bear markets since that time.
The point being that the majority of today’s investors have either never seen inflation cause a recession… or it is so far back in the memory banks that they don’t know how to properly react to the information in hand.
This begs us to get back to KISS investing.
Instead of what it usually means: Keep It Simple Stupid
In 2023 we will go with: Keep Inflation Separate Stupid
The reason for this pearl of investing wisdom will be fully illuminated in this week’s Reitmeister Total Return commentary.
Market Commentary
There have been quite a few joyous bear market rallies this past year based on the notion that inflation was cooling…which would mean the Fed would pivot to more dovish policies soon… which eventually fell apart when the Fed dumped cold water on the situation.
I sense the same set up is taking place now coming into their February 1st rate hike decision and announcement. And that is why I continue to be bearish even as the S&P 500 (SPY) is flirting with a breakout above the long term trend like (aka 200 day moving average) @ 3,978.
Yes, one could say that we have closed above for 2 straight sessions. Yet hard to call it a breakout when the psychologically important 4,000 level looms large overhead. Until we break above that key hurdle, then the bears are still in control.
Back to the KISS theme: Keep Inflation Separate Stupid
Bulls continue to not appreciate the seriousness of the Feds higher rate mantra about “a long time”. I sense that message will be shouted again from the rooftops at their next meeting on February 1st leading to another stock sell off.
To be clear, there is a softening of inflation. No two ways about it. However, sticky inflation in wages and housing will have the Fed maintaining their restrictive policies a while longer only increasing the odds we descend into recession in the first half of the year.
And over the past couple weeks several Fed officials were quoted repeating this higher rates for “a long time” mantra. That includes Chairman Powell. So the idea that only a couple weeks later on February 1st they would say the long time is now over is borderline insane.
Thus, when that message does come through loud and clear in a couple weeks, we will likely see a retreat from recent highs just like we did in mid August and early December. This is why I remain quite bearish.
However, that is truly missing the main point of today’s commentary which we will pivot to now. That being a focus on inflation is completing missing the much more important signals coming from the economy.
That indeed we have an economy teetering on recession. And that should hold MUCH GREATER sway in investor decision making than the state of inflation.
You have heard me write enough on the worsening economic outlook to induce carpel tunnel syndrome. So today I am going to lean one of the industry’s heavyweights to help explain why the market outlook is not just about inflation. And why it should be separated from the bigger recession question that is usually at the forefront of the bull/bear debate… and in time will likely return to the center when investors realize their focus on inflation was misguided.
I have often quoted from John Mauldin in the past because he does such a great job of breaking down “wonky” economic concepts to make it understandable. He was at his level best once again this week with his article: The Punchbowl is Gone.
The title is mean to say that the good times afforded the economy by easy money policies are now gone. And thus the road is tougher from here for the Fed, corporations and yes, investors.
In this article he shares a lot of thoughts he rounded up from other leading investment thinkers. So now I am going to share the best of that article to help round out our understanding of the road ahead of us (spoiler alert: still quite bearish).
“…bond market wizard Jeff Gundlach placing this year’s recession odds at 75%. That seemed low to me…”
Samuel Rines of CORBU adds; “No one wants to say, ‘a recession is fine.’ But the FOMC is highly implying it.”
“Could worse conditions still be coming? Sure. Fed policy changes have lagging effects. But from the FOMC’s perspective, the current strategy seems to be producing the desired benefit (lower inflation) without undesirable consequences (unacceptably high unemployment or credit markets crashing). This gives them room to continue.”
David Rosenberg sees a 100% chance of recession this year for the following reasons: “The seeds for the 2023 recession were sown a while ago by the relentless decline in the Conference Board’s leading economic indicator, which has now fallen for nine consecutive months. The data go back to 1959 and I can tell you that at no time in the past have we seen a string of weakness like this, with a 5.6% annualized contraction over such a timeframe, that failed to presage a recession within a quarter or two. Call it nine for nine back to fifty-nine. The recession is staring us in the face (and if it is so ‘priced-in,’ why is the consensus calling for positive EPS growth for next year?).”
Tuesday provides yet more proof of the deteriorating economy with The NY Empire State Manufacturing report plummeting to -32.9. The lowest level since May 2020 when Covid was ravaging the economy. This and Chicago PMI are considered the most influential of the regional manufacturing reports and both are showing ill health.
So yes, bulls started 2023 in charge thanks to a combination of new year optimism plus signs of moderating inflation. And yes, they may keep the reigns a little longer with FOMO creeping higher.
Let’s sum it up.
To join the bull party now as recessionary odds are on the rise seems quite unwise. And the same could be said for getting bullish on the hopes of a Fed pivot on February 1st. This seems downright fanciful given the facts in hand.
This is why I remain bearish at this time. I even added a 3X inverse ETF to my portfolio the end of last week as stocks were bumping up against resistance.
Down makes more sense than up. Trade accordingly.
Click Here to learn more about Reitmeister Total Return
Wishing you a world of investment success!
Steve Reitmeister… but everyone calls me Reity (pronounced “Righty”)CEO, StockNews.com & Editor, Reitmeister Total Return

About the Author
Steve is better known to the StockNews audience as “Reity”. Not only is he the CEO of the firm, but he also shares his 40 years of investment experience in the Reitmeister Total Return portfolio. Learn more about Reity’s background, along with links to his most recent articles and stock picks.

Last week, crypto enthusiasts got a boost when the crypto market cap almost reached the mark of $1 trillion, the highest level since last November.
That very month, I shared with you the bullish signal in the Bitcoin chart I spotted then. It was a Bullish Divergence on the weekly chart of the main coin.
Below is the distribution of your opinions on that bullish alert.

The “I am Bearish” option had gathered the most votes. The second largest bet was to see Bitcoin bounce back towards its prior consolidation area at $30-$35k. The price of digital gold was $16.5k at that time.
Before we check what happened to the price of Bitcoin since then, let us review the major crypto market.  
Source: coinmarketcap.com
These are the five largest cryptocurrencies in the table above. Top coins are monumental at #1 Bitcoin with gain of 26% year-to-date (YTD) and #2 Ethereum with profit of 30% YTD. Binance’s native coin BNB has attained #3 spot (+28% YTD) long ago, surpassing the Ripple, which is now only #4 with gain of 20% YTD. Cardano closes the ranking at #5 with the largest gain of 47% YTD.
Source: TradingView
The chart of dominance has barely changed since November, with the main coin (orange) peaking up from a valley of 40% to 43%. Ethereum (black) keeps a stable share of 20% in the middle of its own range. BNB coin (green) dominance share has peaked at 6% and is cooling down now to 5%. This is about to enter the Ethereum area that starts at 7%. Ripple (purple) has been stuck around 2% for a long time. Cardano (blue) saw its maximum in the summer of 2021 at 4% and now is trying to push off the bottom of 1%.       Now let me show you the updated weekly chart of Bitcoin.
Source: TradingView
This is that very chart posted in November.
Firstly, let us quickly check the main alert that came from RSI in the sub-chart. Indeed, the Bullish Divergence has been playing out as projected.
The price finally established a higher low at $16.2k last December and a higher peak at $21.2k last week. The RSI indicator is crossing the 50-point line now and entering a bullish zone.
The price is moving north overcoming the largest volume profile barrier (orange) at $20k. The previous peak of $21.5k is within reach now. The next hurdle is the 52-week moving average (purple) which stands at around $27k.
The $30-$35k blue box area will be the next target for bulls. Price reaction in this zone will provide clues to the direction of a future move.      
Is ‘crypto spring’ finally coming after a long suffering ‘crypto winter’?
On hearing the news that the notorious FTX exchange has recovered over $5 billion, the crypto market exploded. It is too early to judge if this is the global reversal or just a ‘dead cat bounce’.
Despite mixed market sentiment, the bullish impulse should not fade until it touches the moving average around $27k to convince the trading community.
To attract more buyers, the price should show a strong rally followed by a minor correction to let FOMO buyers in. The $20k area would act as strong support when the price climbs high enough.                   
 Loading …

Intelligent trades!
Aibek BurabayevINO.com Contributor
Disclosure: This contributor has no positions in any stocks mentioned in this article. This article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. This contributor is not receiving compensation (other than from INO.com) for their opinion.

Like the best-performing Exchange Traded Funds of 2022, the worst-performing ETFs of the year were all leveraged.
It is no surprise that leveraged ETFs would be the best and worst-performing ETFs each year. But, interestingly, three of the top first worst performing ETFs were leveraged funds that are bullish big technology stocks, and the other two were ETFs that are short oil & gas companies.
2022 was a year we saw many divergences occur compared to the past almost ten years.
The technology-heavy index, the NASDAQ, was the worst-performing major index, while the slow and sleepy Dow Jones Industrial Average, while still down, was the best performer. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 8.8% as the S&P 500 dropped 19.4%, and the NASDAQ sank 33.1%.
Let’s look at which ETFs finished in the top five worst performers of 2022.

The worst performing Exchange Traded Fund of 2022 was the ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Natural Gas ETF (KOLD) which ended the year down 88.62%. KOLD provides two times short exposure to an index that tracks natural gas by holding second-month futures contracts.
In 2022 the price of natural gas went through the roof as Russia invaded Ukraine. That invasion led to almost all of Europe imposing a ban on Russian oil and gas, which led to price increases for any other country that also banned the importation of Russian oil and gas.
While KOLD was the worst-performing ETF, the ProShares UltraShort Oil & Gas ETF (DUG) was the fourth worst ETF of 2022 after dropping 72.99%. DUG offers investors two times short exposure to a market-cap-weighted index of large US oil and gas companies.
Since Russia is one of the largest oil and gas producers in the world, the bans on buying their products sent the price of both oil and gas higher in 2022. Thus oil and gas companies based in the United States benefited, and DUG rose substantially.
But, most experts claim the Russian-Ukranie conflict was not the only reason we saw oil and gas prices climb. Some of the increase was likely due to increased demand as most of the world came out of Covid-19 restrictions, and more people felt comfortable traveling.
Regardless, oil and gas companies were one shining spot in 2022, and those who owned DUG did not do well.
DUG’s counterpart, the ProShares Ultra Oil & Gas ETF (DIG), which provides two times long exposure to the same large-cap US oil and gas companies that DUG shorts, was one of the best-performing ETFs of 2022. DIG increased by 123.99% in 2022, making it the second-best-performing ETF for the year.
The second worst-performing ETF of 2022 was the ProShares UltraPro QQQ ETF (TQQQ). TQQQ is a three times leveraged long ETF that provides exposure to a market-cap-weighted index that tracks the 100 largest non-financial companies which are listed on the NASDAQ. TQQQ lost 79.08% last year.
One of the best-performing ETFs of 2022 was the opposite of TQQQ, the ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ ETF (SQQQ), which shorts the same portfolio of companies with three times leveraged. SQQQ ended 2022 up 82.36%, making it the fourth best-performing ETF for the year.
Coming in as the third worst-performing ETF in 2022 was the ProShares Ultra NASDAQ Cloud Computing ETF (SKYU). SKYU is a two-times leveraged long ETF that offers exposure to an equally-weighted index of US companies that operate in the cloud computing industry.
The fund ended in 2022 down 75.95% as the whole technology industry got sold off as interest rates rose and valuations came back to reality.
The ProShares Ultra Semiconductors ETF (USD) was the fifth worst-performing ETF, which dropped 68.56%. USD offers two times long exposure to a market-cap-weighted index that tracks large US semiconductor companies.
Similar to SKYU, USD is a very industry-specific focused ETF that was sent lower due to interest rates, valuation reductions, and the industry’s history of struggling during recessions.

With many market participants expecting a mild recession in 2023, investors sold off stocks that typically don’t perform well in a slowing or negative economy.
Remember, past performance is not a sign of future performance. So don’t base any investment decisions on what performed well or poorly in the past.
Have a game plan and a thesis based on facts and data about why something should move higher or lower in the future.
Hopefully, you only owned the ETF winners of 2022 and not the losers. Regardless, best of luck and happy investing in 2023.
Matt ThalmanINO.com ContributorFollow me on Twitter @mthalman5513
Disclosure: This contributor did not hold a position in any investment mentioned above at the time this blog post was published. This article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. This contributor is not receiving compensation (other than from INO.com) for their opinion.

We’ve seen a better start to the year for the major market averages, with the S&P 500 (SPY) up over 3% year-to-date and the Nasdaq Composite enjoying an even more impressive 4.5% return.
While some of these gains could be whittled away if we see a disappointing CPI report with higher-than-expected inflation, this is certainly a welcome departure from last year’s mess, with both indexes down over 20% for the first time since 2008.
Unfortunately, not all stocks have participated, and one sector that continues to remain in the doghouse from a sentiment standpoint is the Retail Sector.
Within the sector, the restaurant group has outperformed on hopes of peak inflation and improving demand (lower gas prices), but other retail brands like Chico’s FAS (CHS), with the stock being one of the worst performers year-to-date.

While this is partially attributed to the company’s softer holiday sales numbers, the sell-off is starting to look overdone, and a lot looks priced in here, with the stock trading at a mid-single-digit PE ratio.
Meanwhile, within the restaurant space, Wingstop (WING) may be an outperformer but it is positioned to continue its outperformance with aggressive unit growth and deflation in its core commodity (bone-in chicken wings).
This allowed it to price less aggressively than peers and capture market share despite a challenging backdrop where traffic growth has been elusive, especially while gas prices are hovering above $4.00/gallon.
Let’s take a closer look at both names below:
Wingstop (WING)
Wingstop (WING) began as a small buffalo-style chicken wing restaurant in Texas and has since grown to 1,800+ restaurants, with more than 95% of its system being franchised.
Since going public, the company has outperformed nearly all other restaurant stocks with a 640% return in just seven years.
This move is largely justified by the stock posting a ~20% compound annual EPS growth rate and consistently growing its restaurant base at a double-digit pace.
However, the company is still growing and innovating, releasing a new chicken sandwich this year, maintaining an industry-leading digital sales mix (62%), and entering new markets.
In the company’s most recent quarterly report, Wingstop posted sales of $92.7 million (+41% year-over-year), and quarterly earnings per share [EPS] of $0.45, tying its previous record.
The strong sales performance has positioned Wingstoop to report annual EPS of $1.67 this year, a 23% increase during a year when many companies have struggled just to maintain earnings.
This divergence is related to benefiting from bone-in-wing deflation, which lifted margins in the period and gave the company the flexibility to price below the industry average.
The ability to price conservatively and still maintain strong margins is a huge benefit, given that most brands have no choice but to raise prices, which has impacted demand.
Understandably, many investors might see the stock as fully valued at ~75x FY2023 earnings estimates ($2.00).
However, WING has consistently grown annual EPS at 20% per year; its execution has been near flawless, and in a recessionary environment, I would expect the rare growth stories out there to command a premium multiple.
That said, although I believe that Wingstop could hit new all-time highs above $185.00 per share this year and I continue to like the long-term growth story (4,000+ restaurants globally), I believe the ideal area to buy the stock is closer to its 200-day moving average ($130.00), so I will be watching this area to start a new position.
Chico’s FAS (CHS)
Chico’s FAS (CHS) is a $580 million company in the Retail-Apparel industry group with a portfolio of three brands: Chico’s, White House Black Market [WHBM], and Soma, with the latter being its intimate segment.
The stock has seen a significant fall from grace over the past several years, with its share price falling 80% from a high of $17.00 in 2012.
However, things appear to be finally turning around. This turnaround has been helped by a complete revamp of the management team, focusing on growing its digital sales (up ~1000 basis points vs. 2020 levels), and right-sizing its store fleet, closing under-performing stores with 18 permanent net closures on a year-over-year basis as of Q3 2022.
Unfortunately, while key operating metrics and its financial results are trending in the right direction (2021 marked its best gross margins since 2017), the stock has come under pressure due to worries about consumer spending in more discretionary categories.
This was exacerbated by the company’s Q4 sales coming in a little softer than expected, with the most recent update suggesting sales would come in at $510 million at the mid-point vs. a previous outlook of $454 million.
The result is that the stock is one of the worst performers year-to-date in the Retail Sector (XRT), and FY2022 annual EPS estimates of $0.88 look too ambitious.

That said, while FY2022 annual EPS estimates could come in lower than expected, Chico’s FAS is still on track to see a 100% increase in annual EPS year-over-year ($0.84 vs. $0.40), and based on these earnings, the company is trading at just ~5.5x FY2022 earnings estimates.
This is a dirt-cheap valuation for a company that expects to grow annual EPS again next year, with its Soma segment continuing to thrive and ongoing work to increase market share in its other two brands.
So, while holiday sales were a little lighter than hoped, I see Chico’s FAS as a Buy below $4.45, with it sitting at just ~4.8x FY2023 earnings estimates ($0.93).
While several of the best deals are gone, with many sectors beginning to rebound after a rough 2022, Chico’s FAS is one example of a turnaround story at a very attractive price, and Wingstop is an example of a growth story that should continue to thrive given its exceptional execution.
That said, I prefer to buy on pullbacks when the S&P 500 is trading in a cyclical bear market, so I see the ideal buy points for both stocks being $4.45 and $130.00, respectively.
Taylor DartINO.com Contributor
Disclaimer: This article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. Taylor Dart is not a Registered Investment Advisor or Financial Planner. This writing is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation to buy, or a recommendation regarding any securities transaction. The information contained in this writing should not be construed as financial or investment advice on any subject matter. Taylor Dart expressly disclaims all liability in respect to actions taken based on any or all of the information in this writing.

Please enjoy this updated version of weekly commentary from the Reitmeister Total Return newsletter. Steve Reitmeister is the CEO of StockNews.com and Editor of the Reitmeister Total Return.
Click Here to learn more about Reitmeister Total Return

Stocks are likely going to be stuck in a trading range until the next Fed announcement on Wednesday February 1st.
Why?
Because investors have been burned many times before getting bullish in hopes of a Fed pivot that did not arrive.
So even with signs of moderating inflation providing a modest lift to stocks of late…there is a limit to the upside until investors hear from the Fed again. There is also limit to the downside. And this begets a trading range.
Let’s discuss the shape of the trading range and possible outcomes after the Fed announcement. All that and more is on tap for this week’s Reitmeister Total Return commentary.
Market Commentary
In many ways the trading range has already been in place for the past month flitting between 3,800 and 4,000 for the S&P 500.
And this is likely to stay in place as investors are fearful of reading the Fed tea leaves wrong as they have so many times this year. So even though there were welcome signs of moderating wage inflation (public enemy #1 to the Fed) there are enough whispers from the Fed that their job is far from done.
One such whisper from the Fed recently came from Atlanta Fed President, Ralph Bostic. During his speech he shared that interest rates will get above 5% and hold there for a while. He was then asked for how long would they remain elevated above 5% for which he stated emphatically. “three words: a long time”.
This harkens back to December 14th when the market was on the verge of a breakout above the 200 day moving average before Powell slammed the door on that notion. He too repeated the 3 word mantra (a long time) over and over again when discussing their plans for higher rates.
Plain and simple, Powell said that they fear damage from long term inflation much more than the downsides that come with a recession. And thus will remain aggressively hawkish until inflation is back down to the 2% target for good.
Investors got the memo loud and clear in mid December leading to a -6% bearish run for stocks. However, bit by bit investors are forgetting the Feds message as stocks float back higher in the range.
The main thing creating a lid on stock prices at the moment is a combination of the 200 day moving average at 3,990 followed by the psychologically important 4,000 level. You could call that a double reinforced resistance level that will be hard to crack without clear and decisively bullish news from the Fed.
Right now, from a Fed policy perspective I see little reason for investors to get seriously more bullish at this time. That’s because of the consistency of the higher rates for “a long time” mantra.
Also consider that from an economic perspective there are more and more signs of a recession forming early in 2023. Let’s refer to 3 key pieces of data from the past week that speak loudly to worsening economic conditions:
First, was ISM Manufacturing declining to 48.4 last week as New Orders lower at 45.2 means that the worst is yet to come. (Remember under 50 = contraction).
Second, we find that things are not much better on the services side of the ledger as ISM Services dropped abruptly from 56.5 to 49.6. And here again, the forward looking New Orders component was markedly worse at 45.2.
Let’s remember that the above services report was during December…the holiday shopping season when consumers normally put aside any concerns to spend lavishly on their families. However, there was much less “ho, ho, ho” in these results and much more “humbug”.
Lastly, on the economic front, the NFIB Small Business Optimism index was, well, NOT optimistic. That comes through loud and clear as it came in at a six month low of 89.8 when under 100 = contraction.
Here too we see these business owners not feeling good about what lies ahead as the 6 month business conditions outlook worsened with 51% predicting lower results ahead. The only positive to be found in this report is still ample job openings which likely keeps pressure on higher wages…which will keep the Fed on the offensive against inflation a good while longer.
To sum it up, I expect stocks to remain in this 3,800 to 4,000 trading range until we hear from the Fed. Or more specifically I think it will be very hard to break above that range.
On the downside, stocks could tumble lower before the Fed chimes in if the upcoming inflation reports are hotter than expected. That’s because investors would wisely read that information to mean that the Fed would stay aggressively hawkish a good while longer…thus increasing odds of recession and stock market downside.
This means we should put the following dates on our calendar:
1/12/23 = Consumer Price Index
1/18/23 = Producer Price Index
2/1/23 = Fed Rate Hike Decision and Powell Speech
Don’t give much credence to moves higher in the range for now as it likely will be all for not when the Fed takes the mic on February 1st. However, it is also possible that stocks crack lower before that if CPI or PPI shows inflation being too sticky which provides a forgone conclusion of what the Fed will on 2/1.
Long story short, the smart money still rides on recession forming with deeper bear market in coming months. Please trade accordingly.
Click Here to learn more about Reitmeister Total Return
Wishing you a world of investment success!
Steve Reitmeister… but everyone calls me Reity (pronounced “Righty”)CEO, StockNews.com & Editor, Reitmeister Total Return

About the Author
Steve is better known to the StockNews audience as “Reity”. Not only is he the CEO of the firm, but he also shares his 40 years of investment experience in the Reitmeister Total Return portfolio. Learn more about Reity’s background, along with links to his most recent articles and stock picks.

Last September, the Congressional Research Service published an “In Focus” report. They had already attempted to address speculation about the dollar’s dominance in the face of global economic and geopolitical changes at the time.
Three major threats were addressed in that document.
China and its currency have risen to sixth place, accounting for 1.66% of global payments.
The next source of concern was US financial sanctions, as the share of Russian exports to Brazil, China, India, and South Africa in US dollars fell from 85% in Q2 2018 to 36% in Q4 2021.
Digital currencies, which include cryptocurrencies and digital currencies issued by central banks, have completed the list.

“Some policymakers have expressed concerns about an international race to create a digital currency with widespread adoption, arguing that the United States should create a U.S. digital currency to maintain the dollar’s prominence in international payments.”
“To date, there is no evidence of a shift away from the US dollar as the dominant reserve currency,” the study concluded.
Back in October, I shared my most recent update for the dollar index, as it hit the first target with a fresh outlook.
At the time, I proposed two paths for the dollar: a continuation to the next target of $121 on an aggressively hawkish Fed, or a consolidation before resuming to the upside. The majority of readers supported both paths, with the consolidation option coming out on top.
The question of the dollar’s dominance is resurfacing these days, as its value has plummeted dramatically. It is too early to tell whether this is a consolidation or a global reversal.
One thing is certain: the path of unending growth has been abandoned.
In my charts, I see a clash of perspectives. The technical chart is about to give a strong bearish signal. The chart comparing fundamental factors, on the other hand, supports the king currency’s continued strength.
Let me show you each of them one by one, beginning with the emerging bearish alert.
Source: TradingView
In the dollar index daily chart above, there are two simple moving averages. The blue line represents the 50-day moving average, while the red line represents the 200-day moving average.
We can see that the short-term blue line very closely approached the long-term red line from above last week. When it falls below the latter, a bearish pattern known as a “Death Cross” will form. It will indicate a downward shift in the trend.
Furthermore, the RSI indicator failed to cross above the critical 50 level when the December Bullish Divergence played out.
The first support could be near the $100 round number. The previous high of $97.4 established in January of last year is the next support.

 Loading …
Let us now compare the real interest rates of the dollar’s major competitors.
Source: TradingView
The yearly chart of the dollar index (black line) above is compared to the real interest differentials of the major components of the US dollar index.
The real interest rate differentials are depicted on the scale B with the blue line for the United States and the Eurozone, orange line for the United States and the United Kingdom, and red line for the United States and Japan.
This time I added the correlation ratios with interest rate differentials in the same colors.
Currently, the strongest correlation of the dollar index is with the real interest rate differential between the United States and the Eurozone (blue), which is close to absolute at 0.92.

The second highest reading is 0.89 for the US-UK (orange), and the lowest but still positive correlation is 0.63 for Japan.
All of the correlation ratios are at their highest points.
All differentials are rising and at higher levels than in October, which should help the dollar. For the first time since 2019, Japan’s reading has risen above zero. The dollar index is lagging far behind E.U. and U.K. readings, which point to the $130 area. The dollar’s accumulated growth potential is enormous.
We can use the time period between 1995 and 2001 as a sample for the reversal signal. The UK differential began to fall in 1995, Japan’s differential in 1997, and the Eurozone differential in 1999.
Despite this, the dollar index rose until 2001, when it peaked and reversed to the downside. If this sample is applied to the current situation, the dollar index may rise in 2023-2024, even if differentials have already peaked.

 Loading …
Intelligent trades!
Aibek BurabayevINO.com Contributor
Disclosure: This contributor has no positions in any stocks mentioned in this article. This article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. This contributor is not receiving compensation (other than from INO.com) for their opinion.