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It is just amazing how many times you guess not only the direction but also the peaks and troughs of the prices of different instruments. This is crowd-thinking or crowd-analyzing, when the winning ideas are crystallized into the major wager.
This “market distortion” was spotted in July and it was updated this September. Almost all of you were betting that crude oil and platinum would meet on the price chart again. So, here it is in the chart below.
Source: TradingView
The magic of your major bet is right here in the making. As the oil price remains stuck in a sideways consolidation, the platinum price is taking quick steps towards “black gold”.   

In September, crude oil futures completed their mission as the initial meeting point was set at $75 and the valley was at $76. Hence, the consolidation that followed gave the metal a chance to catch up.
The updated meeting point has been recalculated to be set at $62 for crude oil futures and at $1,160 for platinum futures. This could happen in an ideal situation. Historically, however, one of the instruments has often lagged behind.
Last time I updated the platinum futures chart for you and it played out well according to the bullish option.
Let me update the oil futures chart this time as it has changed a lot.
Source: TradingView
This weekly chart of crude oil futures above considers almost all options that are mentioned in the poll below except that the oil price will not move.
Before we start, let’s see the whole picture. I added for comparison the annual change in U.S. GDP data in the green line. The correlation is pretty strong as the rising U.S. GDP data is hand in hand with the strengthening oil price and vice versa.
In the past year, the green line has been decreasing and the time lag has thrown a bomb on the oil price only this year as it peaked in the spring and then fell from a $130 price level to the current $80s.

However, that is not enough to catch the GDP data and there is still a long way to go as it corresponds to the oil price of $47. This level is fortified with the Giant Falling Wedge, which used to be resistance around the $50 mark.
The moving average (purple) is still a valid barrier at $94 since it has held the oil price twice.
The RSI did it as well, as the reading is below the crucial 50 level.
The game is now between the “hammer” of the moving average ($94) and the “anvil” of U.S. GDP data ($47). The breakup above the $94 would increase the gap of the market distortion.      The halfway point at $62 is located right at the top of the largest volume area (orange). There are no other significant levels above it.

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Intelligent trades!
Aibek BurabayevINO.com Contributor
Disclosure: This contributor has no positions in any stocks mentioned in this article. This article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. This contributor is not receiving compensation (other than from INO.com) for their opinion.

Following the global pandemic, the healthcare sector is finding new avenues and accelerating diversification strategies to drive growth. Moreover, the healthcare industry has an aging population in its favor. The median human age in 2022 is 30.2 years compared to 20.6 years in 1974.
Many countries have launched policies to fix the aging population and stagnation challenges.

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With a market capitalization of $259.40 billion, healthcare stalwart Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK) continues strengthening its pipeline through trials, approvals, and collaborations. KEYTRUDA, an oncological drug, primarily drove the company’s business momentum.
Additionally, the company is looking to bolster its oncological pipeline. Last month, MRK and Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) announced that MRK had exercised its option to jointly develop and commercialize a personalized cancer vaccine (PCV). The costs and profits of this collaboration are expected to be shared by the companies.
On top of that, in September, MRK’s Animal Health segment acquired Vence, a virtual fencing innovator for rotational grazing and livestock management, thereby broadening its portfolio.
The company has also raised its expected full-year 2022 worldwide sales to a range of $58.5-$59.0 Billion, reflecting a growth of 20-21%. The company also raised its full-year 2022 non-GAAP EPS outlook to a range of $7.32-$7.37.
The stock has gained 23.9% over the past year and 33.5% year-to-date to close its last trading session at $102.31. It has gained 8.7% over the past month and is trading higher than its 50-day and 200-day moving averages of $92.71 and $87.87, respectively.
Source: MarketClub
Here are the factors that could influence MRK’s performance:
Sound Financial Growth
For the fiscal third quarter of 2022, MRK’s sales increased 14% year-over-year to $14.96 billion. Excluding certain items, its non-GAAP net income and non-GAAP EPS came in at $4.7 billion and $1.85, respectively, up about 4% from their year-ago values.
Growth in oncology was driven by revenues from KEYTRUDA, which increased approximately 20% from the prior-year period to $5.43 billion, while growth in vaccines was mainly due to higher GARDASIL / GARDASIL 9 sales, which grew 15% year-over-year to $2.29 billion.
Discounted Valuation
In terms of its forward P/E, MRK is trading at 17.21x, 31.7% lower than the industry average of 25.21x. The stock’s forward non-GAAP PEG multiple of 1.36 is 24.8% lower than the industry average of 1.80.
In terms of its forward EV/EBIT, the stock is trading at 12.16x, 30.6% lower than the industry average of 17.52x. Its forward Price/ Cash Flow multiple of 13.05 is 21.2% lower than the industry average of 16.56.
Strong Past Growth
MRK’s revenue grew at an 8.7% CAGR over the past three years and an 8.2% CAGR over the past five years. In the last three years, its EBIT and net income grew at CAGRs of 10.7% and 17.9%, respectively. Its EPS also increased at an 18.8% CAGR over the same period.
Favorable Analyst Estimates
The consensus EPS estimate for the current year (fiscal 2022) of $7.38 indicates a 22.6% year-over-year improvement. Likewise, the consensus revenue estimate of $59.11 billion for the same year reflects a rise of 21.4% from the prior year. Moreover, analysts expect MRK’s EPS to grow 11.1% per annum over the next five years.
Attractive Dividend Growth
In July, MRK declared a dividend of $0.69 per share of the company’s common stock for the fourth quarter of 2022. Its annual dividend of $2.76 yields 2.7% on the current share price. It has a four-year average yield of 2.95%.
The company’s dividend payouts have increased at a 9.6% CAGR over the past three years and a 9% CAGR over the past five years. The company grew its dividend payments for 11 consecutive years.
Technical Indicators Look Promising
MarketClub’s Trade Triangles show that MRK has been trending UP for all three-time horizons. The long-term trend has been UP since October 1, 2021, the intermediate-term trend has been UP since October 10, 2022, and the short-term trend has been UP since November 17, 2022.
Source: MarketClub
The Trade Triangles are our proprietary indicators, comprised of weighted factors that include (but are not necessarily limited to) price change, percentage change, moving averages, and new highs/lows. The Trade Triangles point in the direction of short-term, intermediate, and long-term trends, looking for periods of alignment and, therefore, strong swings in price.
In terms of the Chart Analysis Score, another MarketClub proprietary tool, MRK scored +100 on a scale from -100 (strong downtrend) to +100 (strong uptrend), indicating that the stock is in a strong uptrend which is likely to continue. Traders should protect gains and look for a change in score to suggest a slowdown in momentum.

The Chart Analysis Score measures trend strength and direction based on five different timing thresholds. This tool considers intraday price action; new daily, weekly, and monthly highs and lows; and moving averages.
Click here to see the latest Score and Signals for MRK.
What’s Next for Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK)?
Remember, the markets move fast and things may quickly change for this stock. Our MarketClub members have access to entry and exit signals so they’ll know when the trend starts to reverse.
Join MarketClub now to see the latest signals and scores, get alerts, and read member-exclusive analysis for over 350K stocks, futures, ETFs, forex pairs and mutual funds.
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Best,The MarketClub Team[email protected]

Despite inflation moderating slightly for October, the Fed doesn’t seem to be in the mood to pause the interest rate hike just yet. The continued rate hikes might bring further pain for businesses showing signs of a slowdown, with the cut in earnings estimates.
Since the market volatility is unlikely to catch a break anytime soon, shares of fundamentally strong, consumption-driven businesses, with demand and margins immune to an economic slowdown, seem ideal investments for potential upsides while ensuring adequate downside protection.

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Hence, it would be opportune to add BJ’s Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. (BJ), Casey’s General Stores, Inc. (CASY), and Lifeway Foods, Inc. (LWAY) as some technical indicators point to sustained upsides in them amid prevailing uncertainties.
BJ’s Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. (BJ)
BJ operates majorly on the east coast of the United States as a warehouse club operator. The company offers a curated assortment of perishables and other grocery products, general merchandise, gasoline, and other ancillary services.

Over the last three years, BJ’s revenues grew at an 11.6% CAGR, while its EBITDA grew at an 18.7% CAGR. The company’s net income grew at a 32.6% CAGR during the same period.
For the fiscal 2022 second quarter, ended July 30, 2022, BJ’s revenue increased 22.2% year-over-year to $5.10 billion, driven primarily by higher gasoline sales. During the same period, the company’s income from continuing operations and adjusted EBITDA increased 27% and 24.3% year-over-year to $141.01 million and $273.7 million, respectively.
BJ’s adjusted net income for the quarter came in at $144.30 million or $1.06 per share, up 27.3% and 29.3% year-over-year, respectively.
Analysts expect BJ’s revenue and EPS for the fiscal year ending January 2023 to increase 14.8% and 11% year-over-year to $19.13 billion and $3.61, respectively. Both metrics are expected to keep growing over the next two fiscals. Moreover, the company has impressed by surpassing consensus EPS estimates in each of the trailing four fiscals.
Owing to its strong performance and solid growth prospects, BJ is currently commanding a premium valuation compared to its peers. In terms of forward P/E, BJ is currently trading at 21.75x compared to the industry average of 18.98x. Also, its forward EV/EBITDA multiple of 14.07 compares to the industry average of 11.63.
BJ’s stock is currently trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages of $75.09 and $67.57, respectively, indicating a bullish trend. It has gained 10.4% over the past month and 19.3% year-to-date to close the last trading session at $78.36.
MarketClub’s Trade Triangles show that BJ’s long-term trend has been UP since July 22, 2022, while its intermediate-term trend has been UP since October 27, 2022. However, its short-term trend has been DOWN since November 11.
Source: MarketClub
The Trade Triangles are our proprietary indicators, comprised of weighted factors that include (but are not necessarily limited to) price change, percentage change, moving averages, and new highs/lows. The Trade Triangles point in the direction of short-term, intermediate, and long-term trends, looking for periods of alignment and, therefore, strong swings in price.
In terms of the Chart Analysis Score, another MarketClub proprietary tool, BJ scored +55 on a scale from -100 (strong downtrend) to +100 (strong uptrend), indicating that the stock cannot gain momentum in either direction.

The Chart Analysis Score measures trend strength and direction based on five different timing thresholds. This tool takes into account intraday price action, new daily, weekly, and monthly highs and lows, and moving averages.
Click here to see the latest Score and Signals for BJ.
Casey’s General Stores, Inc. (CASY)
CASY operates convenience stores in the United under the Casey’s and Casey’s General Store names. It offers a selection of food, beverages, tobacco and nicotine products, health and beauty aids, automotive products, and other non-food items.
Over the last three years, CASY’s revenues grew at a 19.3% CAGR, while its EBITDA grew at a 13.7% CAGR. The company’s net income grew at a 19.4% CAGR during the same period.
For the first quarter of fiscal 2023 ended July 31, 2022, CASY’s total revenue increased 40% year-over-year to $4.46 billion due to strong inside sales driven by prepared food and dispensed beverages.
During the same period, CASY’s adjusted EBITDA grew 20.6% year-over-year to $293.21 million because of robust fuel margins as wholesale costs declined from record highs. The company’s quarterly net income increased 28.3% from the year-ago period to $152.93 million, up 28.2% year-over-year.
Analysts expect CASY’s revenue for the fiscal year 2023 to increase 22.6% year-over-year to $15.87 billion. The company’s EPS for the same period is expected to grow 10.6% year-over-year to $10.07. Moreover, the company has surpassed the consensus EPS estimates in three of the trailing four quarters.
In terms of forward P/E, CASY is currently trading at 23.48x compared to the industry average of 18.98x. Also, its forward EV/EBITDA multiple of 11.53 compares to the industry average of 11.63.
CASY’s stock is currently trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages of $215.81 and $202.84, respectively. It has gained 16.8% over the past month and 22% year-to-date to close the last trading session at $240.59.
MarketClub’s Trade Triangles show that CASY has been trending UP for all three-time horizons. The long-term trend for CASY has been UP since April 6, 2022. Its intermediate and short-term trends have been UP since October 18 and November 8, respectively.
Source: MarketClub
In terms of the Chart Analysis Score, another MarketClub proprietary tool, CASY scored +90 on a scale from -100 (strong downtrend) to +100 (strong uptrend), indicating that it is in a strong uptrend that is likely to continue. Traders should use caution and utilize a stop order.

Click here to see the latest Score and Signals for CASY.
Lifeway Foods, Inc. (LWAY)
LWAY is a global producer and marketer of probiotic products. The company primarily offers drinkable kefir, a cultured dairy product, in various organic and non-organic sizes. Other offerings include European-style soft cheeses, cream, and other products.
Over the last three years, LWAY’s revenue has grown at a 13.5% CAGR, while its EBITDA grew at a 70.7% CAGR.For the third quarter of fiscal 2022, ended September 30, LWAY’s net sales increased 29.1% year-over-year to $38.14 million due to the company’s focus on the core Kefir business. During the same period, the company’s gross profit increased 8.5% year-over-year to $7.59 million.
LWAY’s net income for the quarter increased 104.8% year-over-year to $983 thousand, or $0.06 per share, up 100% year-over-year.
Analysts expect LWAY’s revenue and EPS for the fiscal ending December 2023 to increase 5% and 375% year-over-year to $152 million and $0.38.
In terms of the forward EV/Sales, LWAY is currently trading at 0.81, 52.9% lower than the industry average of 1.71. Also, its forward Price/Sales multiple of 0.67 compares to the industry average of 1.19.
Despite the attractive valuation, LWAY’s stock is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages of $5.93 and $5.80, respectively, indicating a bullish trend. The stock has gained 34.8% over the past month and 48.7% year-to-date to close the last trading session at $7.21.

MarketClub’s Trade Triangles show that LWAY has been trending UP for all three-time horizons. The long-term trend for LWAY has been UP since August 12, 2022. Its intermediate and short-term trends have been UP since November 7 and October 28, 2022, respectively.
Source: MarketClub
In terms of the Chart Analysis Score, another MarketClub proprietary tool, LWAY scored +100 on a scale from -100 (strong downtrend) to +100 (strong uptrend), indicating that the uptrend is likely to continue. Traders should protect gains and look for a change in score to suggest a slowdown in momentum.

Click here to see the latest Score and Signals for LWAY.
What’s Next for These Consumer Stocks?
Remember, the markets move fast and things may quickly change for these stocks. Our MarketClub members have access to entry and exit signals so they’ll know when the trend starts to reverse.
Join MarketClub now to see the latest signals and scores, get alerts, and read member-exclusive analysis for over 350K stocks, futures, ETFs, forex pairs and mutual funds.
Start Your MarketClub Trial
Best,The MarketClub Team[email protected]

Now that the economy is less rosy looking than a year or two ago, fewer company executives report or discuss share-buyback programs.
However, in the most recent quarterly earnings report from Walmart (WMT) we got just that, a big, new buyback announcement. Wal-Mart announced a new $20 billion share buyback program, and it should be noted that Walmart is currently just a $400 billion company.
While on the surface, a 5% buyback amount may not seem like a lot, if you dig deeper into Walmart, that 5% buyback, in reality, turns into a 10% buyback based on today’s market capitalization. The reason is the Walton family and family trust and foundation control a little more than half of all Walmart shares.
While the family and its Foundation do sell stock from time to time, they have never sold a sizable enough amount to really move the needle. Thus, it is likely that the $20 billion buyback Walmart announced will be purchasing shares not owned by the Walton family and therefore coming from the stock trading on the open market, which is less than 50% of shares outstanding.

Owning a stock like Walmart or, even better, AutoZone (AZO), which has repurchased around 85% of its stock since 1998, can increase the value of your portfolio over decades of ownership. This occurs even when the company you own operates in a boring, slow-growth, or even cyclical industry, like retail.
Now there is some debate about whether or not you would rather have a company you own buy back stock or pay you a larger dividend.
Some investors would instead take a more significant dividend so they can invest it in other stocks, while some investors would rather that money be used to buy back stock.
This is honestly one of those situations where it is more or less a personal decision on which way you would rather a company give you back part of the profits it earns.
A few ways you can invest in companies that participate in share buyback programs is with Exchange Traded Funds. Start by looking at Invesco BuyBack Achievers ETF (PKW) and iShares Core Dividend ETF (DIVB).
Both of these ETFs track US-based companies that have a history of share buybacks. PKW is more focused on share buybacks as it focuses on firms repurchasing at least 5% of their outstanding stock in the previous 12 months, while DIVB owns companies that pay dividends and buyback stock.
Over the last five years, both funds are up slightly more than 11% on a 1-year annualized basis. However, both are down just around 8% year-to-date.
PKW has a 0.64% expense ratio, while DIVB only charges 0.05%. DIVB also has a 1.94% distribution yield, while PKW only pays out 1.08%. PKW is the more pure-play if you want a stock buyback focused ETF, but from the numbers, ie, expense ratio, yield, and even performance, DIVB is probably the better buy at this time.
Another option is the Invesco International BuyBack Achievers ETF (IPKW). IPKW will be very similar to PKW, but it only buys non-US-based companies.
However, the IPKW performance is not very good, both in the short and long terms. IPKW is down 14% year-to-date and only returned 2.35% annualized over the last five years.
The last two ETFs worth looking at are the Pacer U.S. Cash Cows 100 ETF (COWZ) and the FCF US Quality ETF (TTAC).
These two ETFs buy stocks based on their free cash flow. They each look at a broad index of stocks and pick their holdings based on the best companies from a free-cash flow standpoint.
I know what you are thinking, “why would I buy an ETF based on free cash flow when I want share buybacks as my priority.”

Well, if a company has strong free cash flow, it will likely offer a dividend and have a share buyback program in place. Year-to-date TTAC is down just 11%, but COWZ is up 5.66%. Over five years, TTAC is up 11.33% annualized, and COWZ is up 15.18%.
Unfortunately, the only real pure-play share buyback ETF is PKW, and honestly, it isn’t a great option. If you want to own an investment focusing on share buybacks, I would look at individual stocks, such as Walmart or AutoZone, or DIVB and COWZ.
Matt ThalmanINO.com ContributorFollow me on Twitter @mthalman5513
Disclosure: This contributor did not hold a position in any investment mentioned above at the time this blog post was published. This article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. This contributor is not receiving compensation (other than from INO.com) for their opinion.