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Bitcoin VS Gold VS S&P 500

How does gold and its digital competitor Bitcoin relate to each other?
Gold is a traditional store of value, while Bitcoin from a conventional standpoint is highly risky. Even though the latter was nicknamed “digital gold,” we can see from the chart below that it does not act like one.

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Source: TradingView
In the above quarterly chart, I combined 5 items:
The gold price is in black bars on scale A. The Bitcoin price is in orange bars on scale B. The U.S. money supply indicator M2 (M2) is in histogram on scale C. The red line represents the U.S. real interest rate (RIR) on scale D. There is a 2-year correlation coefficient of Bitcoin to gold (blue) in the sub-chart.

Both prices of gold and Bitcoin were moving higher with the M2 which has shown the extensive work of the “printing press”. The impact of the pumped money supply can be seen clearly in the dynamics of the RIR, which has fallen in the deep negative zone.
Gold has peaked five quarters ahead of the M2 climax point. However, following the repeated attempt to retest the all-time high, the price has nearly reached it, and the top coincides with M2 as well as with the bottom of the RIR.
Bitcoin has hit the all-time high close to the extreme of M2 and bottom of RIR with amazing accuracy.
While the move was in sync, the real reasons behind it were quite different. Gold buyers were trying to save the value of money. Bitcoin enthusiasts used cheap money to take a risk.
When the “printing press” stopped and M2 collapsed, both the top metal and main coin weakened at different speeds. The rapid growth of RIR forced by the Fed has caused more damage to Bitcoin than to gold: -68% vs -22% since the bottom of RIR. This confirms the speculative nature of the main crypto. This is evident in the next chart as well.
The correlation ratio clearly shows all the above-mentioned sync and de-sync periods. Currently, the link is slightly positive because both instruments are growing against the dollar.    

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Source: TradingView
In the above chart, I put Bitcoin vs. gold within the ratio (orange bars) and compared it with the gauge of risk represented by the S&P 500 index (blue line).
Since the correlation ratio is almost 0.87, it has mostly been positive over the past three years. The link has been weakening when the more volatile ratio has been falling sharply compared to the index.
The ratio peaked 3 months earlier than the index did at the start of 2022. If we consider the most recent valley as a bottom, then the ratio reached it 1 month later than the index.

There is a big gap between these instruments on the chart that remains stable over the observed period. It closes only when the Bitcoin/Gold ratio strikes new highs with a much larger amplitude than the S&P 500 matching on the chart.     
Both instruments have been recovering after a massive sell-off and the stronger ratio could be a harbinger of renewed appetite for risk as the market thinks that the Fed is about to stop tightening.
The ratio has the 12-month moving average (purple) as the strong barrier at 14.5 ounces ahead. The RSI indicator is moving north and it needs to cross over the 50 line to support further growth.
In order to close the gap with the current S&P 500 level it would require a huge gain of almost three times to reach 30 ounces.

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Intelligent trades!
Aibek BurabayevINO.com Contributor
Disclosure: This contributor has no positions in any stocks mentioned in this article. This article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. This contributor is not receiving compensation (other than from INO.com) for their opinion.

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Investors Alley by TIFIN

Why MLPs Will Be a Top Income Category in 2023

In these early days of 2023, I often find myself thinking about how attractive Master Limited Partnership (MLP) investments look as we move into the year. After a great 2022, energy infrastructure companies are poised to perform well again this year. The big choice is whether to invest in midstream MLPs or shares of midstream corporations.

Here’s what I found – and the best investment to make now…

The terms energy midstream and energy infrastructure are interchangeable. These are the assets and companies that provide gathering, transportation, storage, and terminals between the upstream operations (oil and gas drilling) and downstream operations (refining, chemical manufacturing, utilities).

Before 2015, most midstream companies were structured as MLPs. The prevailing business model involved funding growth projects with a combination of equity and debt. The growth generated growing free cash flow, most of which was paid out as distributions to investors. For at least two decades, MLPs were outstanding dividend growth investments.

The energy sector crashed from 2015 through 2018. The debt-heavy MLP business strategy stopped working. The energy sector crash was a period of massive business restructuring among midstream companies. Companies reduced leverage ratios and cut back on distribution payout levels. They transitioned to paying for growth out of internally generated cash flow.

Additionally, many companies chose to restructure into corporations, leaving the MLP sector behind.

Currently, midstream companies are in excellent shape. Leverage is low, and free cash flow is high and growing. Dividends are well covered, with many companies showing more than two times coverage of the distributions paid to investors. The choice for investors now revolves around whether to focus on midstream companies organized as corporations or as MLPs.

Master limited partnerships often get passed over because they send out Schedule K-1 forms for tax filing. Also, if MLP shares are owned inside a qualified retirement-type account, they can cause tax issues.

Let’s compare the relative valuations of MLPs versus corporations in this sector.

First, three of the larger midstream companies are organized as corporations. I want to look at the current dividend yield and the dividend growth over the last year:

Kinder Morgan Inc. (KMI): Current yield: 5.9%. Year-over-year dividend growth: 2.78%.

ONEOK, Inc. (OKE): Current yield: 5.3%. Dividend growth: 0%.

The Williams Companies (WMB): Current yield: is 5.2%. Dividend growth: 3.66%.

Now let’s look at the three biggest holdings of large-cap, representative MLPs on the Alerian MLP ETF (AMLP).

Energy Transfer LP (ET): Current yield: 8.4%. Dividend growth: 73.6%. (Yes, 70% year-over-year dividend growth!)

Enterprise Product Partners LP (EPD): Current yield: 7.7%. Dividend growth: 8.89%.

Western Midstream Partners LP (WES): Current yield: 7.1%. Dividend growth: 54.8%.

Last year, MLPs kicked in the afterburner for dividend increases. I expect the group to continue with high single-digit annual increases. The numbers above highlight the superior return potential of MLPs.

If you want to stay away from K-1s, investing in MLPs through an ETF like AMLP converts their distributions into 1099 reported income. AMLP tracks the Alerian MLP Index. For an actively managed MLP ETF, I recommend the InfraCap MLP ETF (AMZA).
If you want to retire comfortably, stop what you’re doing.There’s a better way. A way to stop buying stocks and bonds – like anyone’s doing that these days, and start buying the income you need to live the retirement of your dreams.Click here to learn what I’ve uncovered.

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This Airline Stock is Expecting a Strong 2023

The last few years have been difficult for the airline industry as it was among the biggest losers when the pandemic first hit in early 2020. However, with lesser restrictions on travel, the airline industry has bounced back strongly and is close to surpassing the pre-pandemic performance levels.
Delta Air Lines, Inc.’s (DAL) earnings and revenue exceeded analyst estimates in the fourth quarter.
Its EPS came 11.9% above the consensus estimate, while its revenue beat the estimate by 6.6%. The company’s operating margin came in at 10.9%, while its adjusted operating margin came in at 11.6%.
DAL’s CEO Ed Bastian said, “Delta people rose to the challenges of 2022, delivering industry-leading operational reliability and financial performance, and I’m looking forward to recognizing their achievements with over $500 million in profit-sharing payments next month.”
Glen Hauenstein, DAL’s President, said, “For the year, we delivered $45.60 billion in adjusted revenue, a $19 billion increase over the prior year, with record unit revenue performance expected to sustain a revenue premium to the industry of more than 110%. Momentum continues in 2023 with strong demand trends, and we expect March quarter adjusted revenue to be 14 to 17% higher than 2019 on capacity that is 1 percent lower.”

The company’s revenue passenger miles for the fourth quarter increased 24.9% year-over-year to 50.47 billion. Its passenger revenue per available seat mile increased 30.8% year-over-year to 18.30 cents.
Also, its total revenue per available seat mile (TRASM) increased 23.4% from the prior-year period to 22.58 cents. In addition, its total passenger revenue increased 50.4% year-over-year to $10.89 billion.
For the fiscal first quarter ending March 31, 2023, DAL expects its total revenue to increase 14% to 17% over the same quarter of 2019 and its operating margin to come in between 4% and 6%. Its EPS is expected to come between $0.15 and $0.40. For fiscal 2023, DAL expects its total revenue to increase 15% to 20% and operating margin to rise 10% to 12% over the previous year. Its EPS is expected to come between $5 to $6.
DAL’s CEO Ed Bastian said, “As we move into 2023, the industry backdrop for air travel remains favorable, and Delta is well positioned to deliver significant earnings and free cash flow growth.”
DAL’s President Glen Hauenstein said, “The recent rise in COVID cases associated with the omicron variant is expected to impact the pace of demand recovery early in the quarter, with recovery momentum resuming from President’s day weekend forward. Factoring this in to our outlook, we expect total March quarter revenue to recover to 72% to 76% of 2019 levels, compared to 74% in the December quarter.”
DAL is trading at a discount to its peers. The airline’s forward non-GAAP P/E of 7.40x is 57.1% lower than the 17.23x industry average. Its forward EV/EBITDA of 6.08x is 44.6% lower than the 10.97x industry average. Also, the stock’s 0.44x forward P/S is 66.6% lower than the 1.32x industry average.
DAL’s stock has gained 22.9% in price over the past three months and 27.2% over the past six months to close the last trading session at $38.26. Wall Street analysts expect the stock to hit $51 in the near term, indicating a potential upside of 33.3%.
Here’s what could influence DAL’s performance in the upcoming months:
Robust Financials
DAL’s total operating revenue for the year ended December 31, 2022, increased 69.2% year-over-year to $50.58 billion. Its operating income increased 94.1% year-over-year to $3.66 billion.
The company’s operating revenue increased 41.9% year-over-year to $13.44 billion for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2022. Its non-GAAP net income increased 564.3% year-over-year to $950 million. In addition, its non-GAAP EPS came in at $1.48, representing an increase of 572.7% year-over-year.
Favorable Analyst Estimates
DAL’s EPS for fiscal 2023 and 2024 are expected to increase 61.6% and 29.8% year-over-year to $5.17 and $6.71, respectively. Its revenue for fiscal 2023 and 2024 is expected to increase 9.7% and 0.9% year-over-year to $55.49 billion and $56.01 billion, respectively.
Mixed Profitability
In terms of the trailing-12-month EBIT margin, DAL’s 7.57% is 22.2% lower than the 9.73% industry average. Its 2.61% trailing-12-month net income margin is 61.4% lower than the 6.75% industry average.
On the other hand, its 25.49% trailing-12-month Return on Common Equity is 79.6% higher than the industry average of 14.19%. In addition, its 10.64% trailing-12-month Capex/Sales is 259.6% higher than the industry average of 2.96% industry average.
Technical Indicators Show Promise
According to MarketClub’s Trade Triangles, the long-term trend for DAL has been UP since November 10, 2022, and its intermediate-term trend has been UP since January 6, 2023. However, the stock’s short-term trend has been DOWN since January 13, 2023.
Source: MarketClub
The Trade Triangles are our proprietary indicators, comprised of weighted factors that include (but are not necessarily limited to) price change, percentage change, moving averages, and new highs/lows. The Trade Triangles point in the direction of short-term, intermediate, and long-term trends, looking for periods of alignment and, therefore, intense swings in price.

In terms of the Chart Analysis Score, another MarketClub proprietary tool, DAL, scored +85 on a scale from -100 (strong downtrend) to +100 (strong uptrend. While DAL shows short-term weakness, traders may look for the longer-term bullish trend to resume.

The Chart Analysis Score measures trend strength and direction based on five different timing thresholds. This tool takes into account intraday price action, new daily, weekly, and monthly highs and lows, and moving averages.
Click here to see the latest Score and Signals for DAL.
What’s Next for Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL)?
Remember, the markets move fast and things may quickly change for this stock. Our MarketClub members have access to entry and exit signals so they’ll know when the trend starts to reverse.
Join MarketClub now to see the latest signals and scores, get alerts, and read member-exclusive analysis for over 350K stocks, futures, ETFs, forex pairs and mutual funds.
Start Your MarketClub Trial
Best,The MarketClub Team[email protected]

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This Warren Buffett Holding Has Upside Potential

With retail sales declining more sharply than expected during the holiday month and the third consecutive month of contraction in industrial activity, there is concern on Wall Street that the Federal Reserve may have overcooked it with respect to interest-rate hikes to cool down and contain inflation.
Amid widespread bearish sentiments, it could be wise to bank on fundamentally strong, profitable, and fairly-priced sector-leading businesses, such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM).
Headquartered in Hsinchu City, Taiwan, TSM provides integrated circuit manufacturing services globally. This involves manufacturing, packaging, testing, and selling integrated circuits and other semiconductor devices.
The super-advanced semiconductor chips that TSM produces are difficult to fabricate due to their high development costs. Hence, this presents a significant barrier to entry into the competition.

On December 29, 2022, TSM held a 3 nanometer (3nm) Volume Production and Capacity Expansion Ceremony at its Fab 18 new construction site in the Southern Taiwan Science Park (STSP).
TSM announced that 3nm technology has successfully entered volume production with good yields. The company estimates that the technology will create end products with a market value of $1.5 trillion within five years of volume production.
On December 6, TSM updated that in addition to its first fab in Arizona, which is scheduled to begin production in 2024, it has also started the construction of a second fab, scheduled to begin production in 2026.
The overall investment for these two fabs will be approximately $40 billion. When complete, TSM Arizona’s two fabs will manufacture over 600,000 wafers annually, with an estimated end-product value of more than $40 billion.
On November 15, it was revealed that Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) spent $4.1 billion to acquire a stake in the world’s largest contract chipmaker during the third quarter. According to SEC filings, the fabled conglomerate bought just over 60 million of TSM’s New York-listed American Depositary Shares at an average price of around $68.56.
Mirroring the positive developments, the stock has gained 16.9% over the past month to close the last trading session at $89.47.

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TSM is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages of $77.44 and $82.48, respectively, indicating an uptrend.
Here is what may help the stock maintain its performance in the near term.
Solid Track Record
Over the past three years, TSM’s revenue has exhibited a 28.4% CAGR, while its EBITDA has grown at a stellar 33.4% CAGR. The company has increased its net income and EPS at a 42.1% CAGR during the same period.
Robust Financials
Despite the fourth quarter of fiscal 2022 ended December 31, characterized by end-market softness and customers’ inventory adjustment, TSM’s net sales increased 42.8% year-over-year to NT$625.53 billion ($20.63 billion), while its income from operations increased 77.8% year-over-year to NT$325.04 billion ($10.72 billion).
During the same period, TSM’s net income and EPS increased 78% to NT$295.90 billion ($9.76 billion) or NT$11.41 per share.
Attractive Valuation
Despite solid financials and upward momentum in price, TSM is still trading at a discount compared to its peers, thereby indicating upside potential. In terms of forward P/E, the stock is trading at 15.73x, 18.9% lower than the industry average of 19.40x.
In terms of the forward EV/EBITDA, TSM is currently trading at 7.94x, which is 40.2% lower than the industry average of 13.26x. Its forward Price/Cash Flow of 8.42x also compares favorably to the industry average of 18.30x.
Favorable Analyst Estimates for Next Year
While TSM expects a challenging fiscal amid weak overall macroeconomic conditions, analysts expect the company’s revenue for the fiscal ending December 2023 to increase 2.2% year-over-year to $76.12 billion.During the fiscal ending December 2024, TSM’s revenue is expected to increase 20.7% year-over-year to $91.88 billion, while its EPS is expected to increase 23% year-over-year to $7.00.
TSM has also impressed by surpassing consensus EPS estimates in each of the trailing four quarters.
Technical Indicators Look Promising
MarketClub’s Trade Triangles show that TSM has been trending UP for each of the three time horizons. The long-term trend has been UP since December 1, 2022, while the intermediate-term and short-term trends have been UP since January 9, 2023, and December 29, 2022, respectively.
Source: MarketClub
The Trade Triangles are our proprietary indicators, comprised of weighted factors that include (but are not necessarily limited to) price change, percentage change, moving averages, and new highs/lows. The Trade Triangles point in the direction of short-term, intermediate, and long-term trends, looking for periods of alignment and, therefore, strong swings in price.

In terms of the Chart Analysis Score, another MarketClub proprietary tool, TSM scored +90 on a scale from -100 (strong downtrend) to +100 (strong uptrend), indicating that the uptrend will likely continue. While TSM is showing intraday weakness, it remains in the confines of a bullish trend. Traders should use caution and utilize a stop order.

The Chart Analysis Score measures trend strength and direction based on five different timing thresholds. This tool takes into account intraday price action, new daily, weekly, and monthly highs and lows, and moving averages.
Click here to see the latest Score and Signals for TSM.
What’s Next for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM)?
Remember, the markets move fast and things may quickly change for this stock. Our MarketClub members have access to entry and exit signals so they’ll know when the trend starts to reverse.
Join MarketClub now to see the latest signals and scores, get alerts, and read member-exclusive analysis for over 350K stocks, futures, ETFs, forex pairs and mutual funds.
Start Your MarketClub Trial
Best,The MarketClub Team[email protected]

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Stock News by TIFIN

1 Security Stock That’s Well Positioned for 2023

ADT Inc. (ADT) provides security, interactive, and innovative home solutions to serve residential, small business, and commercial customers in the United States. Its segments include Consumer and Small Business (CSB); Commercial; and ADT Solar business (Solar). On October 13, 2022, ADT announced that it had issued and sold in a private placement to State Farm

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Invest In Women With This New ETF

A new Exchange Traded Fund is taking the next step with gender diversity investing. The Hypatia Women CEO ETF (WCEO) is the first ETF to focus strictly on women-run companies.
The only two requirements for a company be owned in WCEO are that it has a market cap of at least $500 million and a woman runs the company, either from the CEO or Chairperson position.
WCEO will have at least 80% of its assets in US companies that female Chief Executive Officers lead. Furthermore, the fund may invest up to 20% of holdings in US companies with an Executive Chairperson or a Chairperson who is female.
WCEO is a one-of-a-kind ETF, but it does have some competition if an investor is looking for a woman-focused ETF.

The Impact Shares YWCA Women’s Empowerment ETF (WOMN) tracks an index of large and mid-cap US equities selected and weighted to maximize exposure to firms that score highly on gender diversity.
WCEO has an expense ratio of 0.85% and just began trading in January. WOMN has an expense ratio of 0.75%, has been trading for about four years, and has over 200 holdings. Year-to-date, the fund is up 4.7%, down 12.41% over the last year, but up 11.83% annualized over the previous three years.
Another ETF focusing on women in the workforce is the SPDR MSCI USA Gender Diversity ETF (SHE). SHE tracks a market cap-weighted index of large and mid-size US companies that promote gender diversity through a relatively high proportion of women throughout all levels of their organization.
SHE has been trading for about seven years and has an expense ratio of 0.20%, the best out of this group. Year-to-date SHE is up 3.88%, down 14.48%, but up 2.53% annualized over the last three years and 4.82% annualized over the previous five years.
While each of these three ETFs promotes the idea of gender diversity in the workplace, WCEO has taken it to the next level, and I believe the requirement for a company to be run by a woman will set this ETF apart from the rest over the next few years.
I feel WCEO is a good buy because, over the last few years, we have continued to get more evidence indicating that women are better leaders than men. One recent example of this is the Covid pandemic, in which women-run countries managed the crisis better. Another study showed that US states with women governors had fewer people die than states with male governors.
A study on leadership performed by Jack Zenger and Joseph Folkman found that women were rated more competent on every level of leadership than men. This study used 360 assessments to evaluate the effectiveness and get an accurate result.
If you aren’t yet sold, this may help push you over the edge. As of May 2022, 32 companies in the S&P 500 were led by women. If we look at the performance of those 32 companies compared to the rest of the S&P 500 over the past ten years, the results are the female lead companies rose 384% compared to just a 261% increase by the male lead businesses.
Let me leave you with one more thought. There is a story about Billy Beane, the manager of the Oakland A’s baseball team and a key figure in the movie “Moneyball.” If you recall, in the film, Billy Beane went out and found players that didn’t necessarily appeal to the scouts because of their physical appearance or something as small as the way they threw a baseball, say, sidearm.

Apparently, this way of thinking was how he made stock picks. The story goes that he would buy stocks based on how the CEO looked. He would only invest in companies that did not have a tall white male CEO.
It is said that he thought some, or even most, tall white men gained respect and where eventually promoted to CEO because of their physical appearance, not because of their ability. Billy Beane wanted a CEO that gained their position because they earned it based on skill and business knowledge.
So if you want to invest like Billy Beane, or ‘Moneyball’ investing, try out the new ETF WCEO and invest with the women.
Matt ThalmanINO.com ContributorFollow me on Twitter @mthalman5513
Disclosure: This contributor did not hold a position in any investment mentioned above at the time this blog post was published. This article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. This contributor is not receiving compensation (other than from INO.com) for their opinion.

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Is This SaaS Stock Worth Buying for Under $55?

Software-as-a-Services (SaaS) stock DocuSign, Inc. (DOCU) surpassed revenue estimates by $18.08 million for its latest reported quarter. However, it has lost 57.5% over the past year and 15.7% over the past six months to close the last trading session at $53.99. Moreover, the tech and software industries has been suffering from mass layoffs amid economic

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Investors Alley by TIFIN

A Recession-Proof Stock With a 6% Yield

Utility stocks are historically seen as dull but dependable. After all, they have assured demand despite limits on profitability due to heavy regulation. Investors also see these stocks as regular dividend payers—bond proxies, in effect—with investors confident of solid income streams, leading to low but highly reliable total shareholder returns with relatively little capital risk.

That may be true – but some, like this one, can be very profitable…

National Grid in the U.K. and U.S.

One such utility company that has often been called ‘reassuringly dull’ comes from across the pond, the U.K.’s National Grid plc (NGG). The company operates the U.K.’s electricity grid, connecting electricity generation from all sources (power stations, wind farms, solar, and hydro) to end users. National Grid also has energy investments in the northeastern U.S. as well as electricity interconnectors with Europe.

National Grid makes its money by acting as an intermediary between the generators of electricity and the local electricity distributing utility companies. It charges fees for maintaining the integrity of the network and the carrying of energy that is passed on to the consumer, so it is largely unaffected by the actual price of electricity charged by the generating firms.

In other words, NGG is a very defensive stock, because National Grid forms one of the key and largely indispensable parts of national (UK) and regional (US) infrastructure. So even if electricity consumption is reduced or generation methods are changed, power still needs to flow through a grid and the networks need always to be managed and balanced by the grid operator.

In the U.K., long-term rate structures have offered solid earnings and dividend growth at least in line with inflation. During the 2013-21 period, regulators allowed National Grid to earn a 7% real return on its transmission assets plus incentives; however, for the 2021 to 2026 timeframe, real return on equity of electricity and gas transmission networks have been cut to 4.3% and 4.6%, respectively.

National Grid earns about 45% of its profits from the U.S. After many years of high investments in the

U.S., the significant asset reshuffling announced in March 2021 was a turning point. The company agreed to buy PPL’s U.K. electricity distribution assets, Western Power Distribution, for a £14.2 billion ($17.45 billion) enterprise value, implying a significant 60% premium to the regulated asset value. National Grid funded part of the purchase by selling its Rhode Island networks to PPL for £3.7 billion ($4.55 billion), for an impressive enterprise value to regulated asset value (RAV) of 2, and by selling its U.K. gas transmission assets at a 45% premium to the RAV.

The rationale behind those transactions was to increase the weight of electricity networks over gas networks in light of the ongoing energy transition.

Latest Results and Dividend

National Grid’s latest results (reported in mid-November) were darn good, showing that first-half underlying operating profit jumped 51%, to £2.1 billion ($2.57 billion). This is thanks to higher revenues from its new distribution network assets in the U.K. Earning per share went up by 42% to 32.4p ($0.40) per share.

The firm did raise its fiscal 2023 underlying earnings per share growth guidance from a prior 5% to 7% to a new range of 6% to 8%, implying earnings per share for the year to total 69.6p ($0.85). The guidance upgrade is driven by the positive impact of high inflation on revenue and higher profit growth at National Grid Ventures, notably on higher auction prices across interconnectors.

The interim dividend was 4% higher at 17.84p ($0.22) per share. And it’s a good bond proxy—the dividend has not been cut since 1996. National Grid is also a Dividend Aristocrat, having raised its dividend every year since 1998 and delivering an impressive 6.3% average annual growth over the period. NGG has always had a high payment ratio (dividend as a percentage of earnings per share) of around 80%.

National Grid has an interesting dividend policy based on U.K. inflation. The target policy is to grow payments in line with CPIH (consumer prices index, including owner occupiers’ housing costs) inflation: a measure which extends the consumer prices index to include regular costs of living associated with home ownership and it is running at nearly a double-digit rate.

National Grid’s Outlook

The company’s stock de-rated a lot in 2022. Stronger recent updates and those interim results in November stopped the rot.

Despite the relatively high debt level, National Grid’s balance sheet appears sound because the company’s high leverage is supported by low revenue cyclicality and low operating leverage.

The NGG dividend looks safe enough. Thanks to the aforementioned high selling price of the U.K. gas transmission assets, National Grid should be able to continue to grow dividends in line with inflation. And with an attractive yield of 6.78%, NGG is a buy anywhere in the low-$60s.
This stock does NOT pay a dividend…Yet it can generate as much as $1,475 per week in retirement.Add that up… and you’re looking at an extra $5,900 per month.That’s why I don’t want you to miss out. The next payout could be coming just days from now, and you don’t want to live in regret if you miss this:Click here now for all the urgent details.

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3 Agriculture Stocks to Help Feed Your Portfolio in 2023

The agriculture industry faced headwinds from record food prices in 2022. Although interest rate hikes have somewhat eased price pressures, the Russia-Ukraine war, supply tensions, and material costs could keep food prices high. Given the volatile economic environment, USDA announced major program improvements, progress, and investments to support the agriculture sector and benefit American farmers,

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Stock News by TIFIN

2 Tech Stocks That Have Finally Bottomed

2022 was a year to forget for investors and one of the worst years in history for the 60/40 stock/bond portfolio strategy in history.
This was evidenced by both assets posting double-digit declines, with the S&P 500 (SPY) actually performing the best with a 20% decline for the year, which says a lot about the magnitude of the decline in bonds.
Fortunately, 2023 is off to a better start, and while the S&P 500 entered the year in rough shape, the Nasdaq Composite was over 30%, with sentiment for the tech sector arguably the worst it’s been in nearly a decade.
This has set up some oversold buying opportunities, and some tech names have ~65% of their value, placing them in an interesting position from a valuation standpoint.

In this update, we’ll look at two tech stocks that look to have finally bottomed and where investors could find some value in buying the dip.
Crowdstrike (CRWD)
Crowdstrike (CRWD) is a $24 billion company in the cybersecurity space, and it continues to be one of the fastest-growing companies globally, increasing annual revenue from $119 million in FY2018 to $1.45 billion in FY2022, and sales estimates are sitting at $3.8 billion for FY2025.
The company is currently the market leader in endpoint security. Its flagship product is the Falcon Platform, with continuous AI analytics on trillions of signals helping to defend the thousands of customers on its platform.
As of the company’s most recent quarter, it has 15 of the top 20 US banks on its platform, 537 of the Global 2000 companies, and 21,100 customers in total.
Notably, the company is certainly not seeing a slowdown in line with other S&P 500 companies in this recessionary environment, growing customers by 44% year-over-year and revenue by 53% to $580.9 million.
The result is that Crowdstrike is set to grow annual EPS yet again this year by a market-leading 130%, with annual EPS estimates sitting at $1.54, up from $0.67 last year. This growth is expected to continue in FY2024, with annual EPS set to come in at $2.02.
(Source: Company Filings, Author’s Chart, FactSet Estimates)
Based on what I believe to be a fair earnings multiple of 65 to reflect Crowdstrike’s market-leading growth rates and positioning as a leader in its industry, I see a fair value for the stock of $131.30, pointing to 30% upside from current levels (FY2024 estimates: $2.02).
However, Crowdstrike is likely to triple annual EPS by F2027 to $6.50,, and even at a more conservative multiple of 50, this would translate to a fair value of $325.00 per share (230% upside from current levels).
So, for investors looking for high growth at a reasonable price, I would view any pullback below $99.00 on CRWD as low-risk buying opportunities for an initial position.
Intuit (INTU)
Intuit (INTU) is a $110 billion company in the computer software industry group and is best known for QuickBooks, an accounting software package developed and marketed by the company and first offered in 1983.
Like Crowdstrike, Intuit has seen incredible earnings growth over the past several years and, despite the recessionary environment, continues to see strong top-line growth as well. This was evidenced by revenue of $2,597 million in Q1 2023, a 29% increase from the year-ago period.
At the same time, margins have seen minimal contraction, coming in at 75.5%, with annual EPS up 9% to $1.66.
Unfortunately, with the higher interest rate environment leading to multiple compression across the market as higher discount rates are used to calculate future cash flows, Intuit has suffered materially.
This is evidenced by its share price decline by nearly 55% to a recent low of $352.00 (all-time high: $717.00). In addition, revenue in its Credit Karma segment was softer than expected, with guidance revised to a decline of 10-15% year-over-year vs. 10-15% growth, a massive guidance cut.
Still, the company still expects to grow annual EPS year-over-year due to strength in other categories, on track to report annual EPS of $13.69 in FY2023, a 16% increase year-over-year.
(Source: Company Filings, Author’s Chart, FactSet)
Historically, Intuit has traded at an average earnings multiple of 37 (10-year average), and the stock is currently trading at just ~25.2x FY2024 estimates at a share price of $390.00. This leaves the stock trading at a deep discount to historical multiples, and even based on a more conservative multiple of 32.0x earnings, I see a fair value for Intuit of $495.30.

If we measure from a current share price of $390.00, this translates to a 27% upside to fair value but assumes that Intuit doesn’t beat what I would consider conservative estimates.
So, if the stock were to decline below $373.00, which would give it a 33% upside to fair value, I would view this as a buying opportunity.
While the tech sector is full of unprofitable land mines, Intuit and Crowdstrike are unique because they are profitable and growing rapidly, but they’ve been thrown out with the bathwater.
Just as importantly, they’re now trading at more reasonable valuations and are oversold on their long-term charts. So, if we see further weakness in these names, I would view this as a buying opportunity.
Disclosure: I am long CRWD
Taylor DartINO.com Contributor
Disclaimer: This article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. Taylor Dart is not a Registered Investment Advisor or Financial Planner. This writing is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation to buy, or a recommendation regarding any securities transaction. The information contained in this writing should not be construed as financial or investment advice on any subject matter. Taylor Dart expressly disclaims all liability in respect to actions taken based on any or all of the information in this writing.

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