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Will The Banking Crisis Cancel Hopes Of A Bull Run This Year?

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite were both down sharply last week, declining 4.5% and 4.7%, respectively and closing on their lows. The significant declines in the indexes combined with one of the worst weekly drops (16%) since March 2020 for the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) was related to the failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB) last week, which marked the second-largest failure of a financial institution in United States history.
The failure was related to not having enough cash on hand nor liquid assets to convert immediately to cash, and with Silvergate Bank’s (SI) downfall earlier in the week which already created some anxiety among investors, it’s possible this could have been one reason for a sudden increase in depositor demands and the ensuing bank run.
Although this is certainly devastating news, we’ve seen regulators act quickly, with the New York State Department of Financial Services taking possession of Signature Bank New York to ensure deposits are protected in what’s being called a “similar systemic risk exception” to Silicon Valley Bank where Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen ensured all deposits at Silicon Valley Bank were fully protected.
While this has stabilized financial markets and keep short sellers at bay that might have otherwise been looking for other vulnerable targets in the Financial Sector (XLF), this decision could severely erode confidence in the Federal Reserve’s “raise at all costs” narrative that’s seen it already increase rates to 4.5% – 4.75% at breakneck speed.
Some investors might view this as positive news, and it certainly is a positive over the short-run as there’s nothing like fears of a bank run to push the market into a downward spiral. However, if the Federal Reserve is forced to take its foot off the proverbial gas regarding rate hikes, it could come up short when it comes to stamping out inflation, and it may have to revisit rate hikes again down the road if it’s clear that enough has been done.
The other worry is that the Fed Put is now back in place which could result in an increase in risk-taking among market participants if they think the Federal Reserve has their back. This is not ideal, and we were finally seeing substantial progress in reeling in speculative activity with the Federal Reserve’s credibility it’s gained over the past 12 months by not wavering despite the negative market reaction.
Overall, I see this news as short-term bullish for the market but medium-term and long-term neutral, given that the previous course taken by the Federal Reserve was ripping the bandaid off at all once, and potential rate cuts following a pause once inflation cooled down. The updated course could be a 25 basis point hike this month followed by a pause to bandage up the current situation, but it then leaves risk on the table that inflation remains above the Fed’s target and stays in the 5% range, leading the Federal Reserve to come back later to finish what it started.
In summary, last week’s news was certainly a pivotal development for the market and one that could lead to choppier markets for longer, but with a bullish short-term and medium-term bias (1-6 months).

(Source: TC2000.com)
Moving to the technical picture, while last week’s decline was rough, it did nothing to impact the short-term picture, which improved last month when we saw a golden cross on the S&P 500 (50-day up through the 200-day moving average). However, this recent strength has not yet translated to an improvement in the bigger picture, with both indexes remaining below their 20-month moving averages (requires a monthly close above 4200). Meanwhile, though the decline was rough, it actually set up another bullish signal, which was a 90% downside volume day (last Thursday March 9th) shortly following a new breadth thrust (Jan 12th, 2023).
Historical forward returns and drawdowns (D/D) are shown below, with an average forward 3-month return of 8.26% and an average 6-month forward return of 10.66%, as well as an average drawdown of just 2.72% and 2.76%, respectively.

(Source: Author’s Data & Table)
Assuming this plays out like prior signals (the most recent signal was October 26th, 2020, we would see the S&P 500 trade up to 4270 by mid September, which is in line with the breadth thrust signal that suggests we should see 4400 by mid summer and potentially 4600 on the S&P 500 by year-end. Meanwhile, the average drawdown in this data set suggests that we should see a floor for the market near 3750, which is consistent with the breadth thrust data shared in previous updates that suggests a range for the market this year of 3700-4600 in line with past breadth thrusts. Obviously, these signals could fail, but with 88% win rates historically and limited drawdowns, I see this as the time to be optimistic, not pessimistic like everyone appears to have become as of last week.

(Source: CBOE Data, Author’s Chart)
So, what’s the best course of action?
Heading into the week, the S&P 500 is back in the lower portion of its strong support/resistance range (3500 vs. 4315) at 3860 and also in the lower portion of its range using short-term support at 3765 – 4315 resistance, resulting in a slightly positive reward/risk setup for the market short term. Given that the 90% downside volume day which often occurs post-breadth thrust is out of the way and we see strong medium-term returns with limited drawdowns following these signals in a post-breadth thrust environment, I would strongly consider adding to my position in the S&P 500 if we saw a pullback below 3780, especially with the recent increase in negative sentiment.

(Source: TC2000.com)
If you want to learn how to make extra income from options trading, be sure to join my Options Money Machine trading service. Here I will teach you my method for trading options that has brought me years of consistent income, without all the added risk of the traditional buying and selling of call or puts. Don’t miss this opportunity to make this year your most profitable yet!

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INO.com by TIFIN

What Will The Fed Do In March?

The Federal Open Market Committee meets next week, at which time it is expected to raise its benchmark interest rate another 50 basis points, to a range of 4.75% to 5.00%, if we correctly interpret Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony to Congress last week, when he said “the ultimate level of interest rates is likely to be higher than previously anticipated.”
Before that, the market had expected a 25-basis point increase, equivalent to its most recent hike at the Jan. 31-February 1 meeting. As we know, his comments sent stock and bond prices sharply lower.
Since then, though, we’ve had some serious news coming out of the banking system, namely the failure of SVB Bank and the closure of Silvergate Capital (both regulated by the Fed!) and worries that some of the largest U.S. banks (also regulated by the Fed) are sitting on some huge, unrealized losses in their government bond portfolios.
In this atmosphere, is a larger than expected rate increase next week—i.e., 50 bps rather than 25—justified?
Or should the Fed maybe show a little restraint and raise the fed funds rate only a quarter point?

And if it does, what will be the likely market reaction?
In his Capitol Hill testimony, Powell focused – as you would expect – on the U.S. economy, namely its stronger than expected recent performance, particularly in the jobs market, which in February gained another 311,000 jobs even as the unemployment rate rose slightly to 3.6%.
The Fed seems hellbent on making up for its past errors of overly long, overly loose monetary policy by ramming through rate increases no matter how much harm they might cause.
Ignoring the second component of its Congressional mandate, namely promoting full employment, the Fed is instead totally focused on slaying inflation as fast as possible, even though getting from the current rate of inflation – 6.4% in January — back down to its 2% target will no doubt take some time.
After all, the Fed only started raising interest rates back in March 2022, when the fed funds rate was at or near zero. 
While getting the interest rate regime back to the “old normal” of 5-6% has been a long time coming and is a worthy endeavor, it’s probably unrealistic to believe we can get there in a year or so, after we’ve become accustomed to more than 15 years of near-zero rates, without causing some serious and unforeseen problems.
Since Powell has gone out of his way recently, most notably during his Congressional testimony, to disabuse the markets of the idea that the Fed is about to “pivot” to a more moderate rate-rising program, it’s unlikely that the Fed will do anything other than raise rates by 50 bps at its March 21-22 meeting.
But what if it doesn’t? What if concerns about potential problems in the banking system force the Fed to hold back and raise rates only 25 bps, or not at all?
The first reaction might be euphoria. Stocks will rally on the belief that the Fed is doing the right thing by moderating its rate-hiking regime.
Conversely, such a move might create a whole new reason to worry. What does the Fed know that we don’t? Are things so bad out there that the Fed doesn’t dare change rates more than it’s conditioned us to expect?
I think the latter reaction is least likely, for the simple reason that the Fed, despite all its collective brain power, really doesn’t know more than us mere mortals do, certainly a lot less than we give it credit for (see SVB and Silvergate, which happened right under its nose).

In his testimony, Powell didn’t mention any potential problems in the banking system, which didn’t come to light until a couple of days later.
Is that because he didn’t want to create a panic, or because the Fed doesn’t believe these potential problems aren’t as serious as the market reaction implied?
It’s hard to believe he didn’t know of their existence, since Fed officials talk with the nation’s most important bankers all the time. How could he not know? Then again…
If I had to bet, I would expect the Fed to go through with a 50 bp hike next week, barring some new, Black Swan-type, calamity, since it’s already pretty much telegraphed that’s what it’s going to do.
But the Fed should also say it is closely monitoring the banking sector and any potential economic fallout, which could require a more moderate policy stance going forward.
George YacikINO.com Contributor
Disclosure: This article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. This contributor is not receiving compensation (other than from INO.com) for their opinion.

What Will The Fed Do In March? Read More »

Investors Alley by TIFIN

Take Advantage of the Bank Chaos With This Income Play

Well, that was unexpected.

The bank run we saw last week at Silvergate (SI) and Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB) was stunning and completely unforeseen.

Unless, of course, you were listening to what I’ve been saying for 18 months: the Fed’s rate hikes make unprofitable, risky companies much less valuable, and fast.

But the vast majority of banks will be completely unaffected by this.

Which gives you and me a great opportunity to snap up some stellar banks at dirt-cheap prices…

Earlier this year, I spent some time at the Acquire or Be Acquired conference in Phoenix, Arizona, with more than 1,000 bankers and dozens of Wall Street analysts, plus investment fund managers, industry journalists, and private bank investors.

I can promise you that the subject of a bank run never came up.

We did talk at length, however, about the securities issue banks were dealing with this year. Banks that had been buying securities at very low rates since the start of the pandemic saw the value of these securities plummet as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates at a rapid pace to fight inflation.

While the losses on fixed-income securities impacted earnings and accounting measures of book value, they did not impact regulatory capital levels. Furthermore, these losses would be fully recovered if the banks just held the securities to maturity.

So, no one was losing any sleep over the securities portfolio.

Then we saw the deposit run at Silvergate as its crypto industry customers needed to withdraw deposits to pay off their investors. The bank had to sell securities to meet the demand for cash and, by doing so, turned paper losses into actual losses.

Silvergate took losses of more than $1 billion in the fourth quarter of 2022, and the forced selling continued into this year. Last week, the bank threw in the towel and announced plans to liquidate.

On Monday, January 6, the management of Silicon Valley Bancorp was overseeing a bank that was turning 60 this year and had a market capitalization of over $20 billion.

On Friday, March 10, the bank was out of business, with a market cap of zero.

What a wake-up call for the venture capital industry, which has now realized that there was a severe funding shortfall, especially for early-stage companies. Funding for early-stage companies has all but disappeared.

It seems that the reality of what I have been saying for 18 months finally occurred to the residents of Silicon Valley: rising rates make unprofitable, risky companies worth a lot less money.

Warnings of the possibility of losing access to whatever cash they had left caused many early-stage venture capital firms to transfer funds out of Silicon Valley Bancorp to smaller, more traditional banks all across the United States.

Other companies followed suit, and the run was on. Silicon Valley Bancorp had to sell securities to meet demand, turning billions of dollars of paper losses into real losses. The bank tried to raise capital, but buyers were nowhere to be found. And so early Friday afternoon, the FDIC seized the bank.

Bank stocks sold off across the board. After all, most banks have securities losses this year. It was hard to avoid with rates rising as fast as they did. Still, unless the news media sparks a national bank run with breathless headlines foretelling a repeat of 1929, 99% of all banks will be just fine.

Banks are going to have to raise the rate they pay on deposits to keep cash from walking out the door.

That will pressure earnings for the rest of 2023 and into 2024. It will not, however, cause any more banks to close their doors.

The current situation in banking does set up an opportunity for investors looking for a steady income stream with the potential for an eventual significant capital gain of 20% or more: bank-preferred stocks have also been selling off in the past week. This includes preferred stocks issued by some of the safest banks in the country.

Bank of Hawaii Corp. (BOH) is an excellent example of what I am seeing right now. This bank has been around since 1897. When it opened its doors, it had only been four years since Stanford Dole overthrew Queen Liliuokalani to assume control of the islands. Hawaii did not become a U.S. territory until the following year.

The bank has survived countless geopolitical events and economic crises since it opened; it will survive this one as well.

Bank of Hawaii has a preferred stock (BOH-A/BOH-PA) trading with a coupon of 4.38%. Based on the $25 par value, every share receives dividends of $1.09 annually (payments are made quarterly.) Thanks to rising rates and bank-related fears, the stock traded hands last week as low as $17.22. At that price, the shares yield 6.33%.

That is not the whole story.

When the current bank-related fear leaves the market, the shares will trade higher, possibly climbing back above the $21 level where it sold last month—a gain of more than 20%. And, the shares should move higher when the Fed stops raising rates.

If we have a recession later this year or early next and the Fed has to lower rates, Bank of Hawaii preferred shares could easily trade back toward the par value of $25, which would be a gain of more than 40%!

As long as the bank stays in business, you collect more than 6% on your capital.

The risk-reward for bank-preferred stocks is being skewed in a very positive manner, and the Bank of Hawaii preferred is a very attractive issue right now.
Regulators recently seized Silicon Valley Bank due to concerns about its financial health and compliance practices, leading to investors losing confidence.As a result, funds and investments tied to the bank could be vulnerable to significant losses and market volatility.But this new AI investing tool can help you figure out if your investments are at risk, what to do about it, and find new opportunities for you to invest in.Click here to see how.

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Wealthpop

This Is How We Took Advantage Of The Chaos On Wall Street

Over the past few months, as Powell & Co. made it clear they would stay the course of rates going higher for longer, many people abandoned any nuanced analysis of ‘dot-plots’, terminal rates or curve inversion and adopted the stance the Fed would simply keep tightening “until something breaks.”
I would venture to say last week’s failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB), which at $200 billion was the second largest in history, and the following intervention by the FDIC and bailout/backstop for depositors to prevent a contagious run on other regional banks qualifies as something breaking.
So how do we put it all back together? Or more importantly, how do we take advantage of this state of confusion.
Remember, from chaos comes opportunity.
For option traders, chaos expresses itself as increased volatility, both realized and implied, and the pump in premiums has drawn to selling iron condors to take advantage of the dislocation. 
The CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX), which is a broad measure of market volatility, shows recent events certainly spooked investors. The VIX spiked to its highest level in 6 months.

My view is the recent price action, in which full asset classes such as Treasury Notes, some sectors, like regional banks and certainly individual names, experienced 10 sigma moves – that would be 10 standard deviations from the 12-month expectations – will now have a reversion to mean.
This expectation for a stabilization in price has me drawn to iron condors like a moth hooked on meth fueled lightbulb.
The first move Options360 made on Monday was to establish an iron condor in the SPDR S&P Regional Bank ETF (KRE); this sector ETF, which includes SIVB, First Regional Bank (FRC) and Western Alliance (WAL), has dropped over 18% in the last week; that’s not normal for the banking business.

Check out Magnifi.com to find other ETFs with bank exposure
So, yes, I dove straight into the center of the storm by establishing an iron condor, which consists of simultaneously selling both a put spread and call spread as a means of collecting premium.
While I can’t give the details of the specific trade, my expectation is that KRE will hold between $45 and $53 over the next week or two. More importantly, implied volatility for the sector will decline from over 115%, the highest level since the 2008 financial crisis, back towards the 52- average of 19% as the dust settles and reversion takes hold. 
Don’t miss any trades. Join the Options360 trading community today!

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INO.com by TIFIN

How to Steer Clear of the Silicon Valley Bank Meltdown

Editor’s Note: Our experts here at INO.com cover a lot of investing topics and great stocks every week. To help you make sense of it all, every Wednesday we’re going to pick one of those stocks and use Magnifi Personal to compare it with its peers or competitors. Here we go…

Bank stocks have dropped and markets are still spooked after last week’s collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, and it’s unclear how far the fallout will reach.
But amid all the talk of how many other banks are in trouble, the effects on a related industry has gotten very little attention.
We’re talking about the mortgage-backed bond markets. See, according to an article from the Financial Times’ Alphaville team, Silicon Valley Bank is still sitting on a $50 billion book of MBS (mortgage-backed securities). It is likely government regulators that have taken over Silicon Valley Bank will need to dump those bonds to help cover the cost of giving depositors all of their money back.
That possibility caused mayhem in the U.S. mortgage market on March 10, as investors rushed to get ahead of getting squashed by the bank’s potential MBS dump. Therefore, mortgage spreads sharply widened on that day as Silicon Valley Bank circled the drain.

So today, we’re going to use the Magnifi Personal investing AI to compare the most important MBS-trading companies and see if there are any opportunities here – or if the risk is too high.
Doing this was simple. we asked Magnifi Personal to “Compare AGNC, STWD, and BXMT” and it did all the work.
To have the investing AI run similar comparisons for you, or to dive deeper into this one and compare other banks or REITs, we’re offering 90 days of free access to Magnifi Personal – just click here!
This ability to have an investing AI pore over reams of data for you in seconds and spit out an easy-to-understand comparison of two or more stocks is an invaluable tool in deciding where to invest next.
I highly recommend you try it out. Click here to see how you can do it today, free-of-charge.
Here’s what Magnifi Personal showed me after we asked it to in “Compare AGNC, STWD, and BXMT”:

This is an example of a response using Magnifi Personal. This image is not a recommendation or individual advice. Please see bottom disclaimer for additional information, including INO’s relationship with Magnifi.
As you can see, Starwood Property Trust Inc. (STWD) comes out on top, with lower volatility and better returns. And that’s despite the recent chaos in mortgage-backed securities caused by Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse.
Now, we picked these three particular stocks for a reason. All three are so-called mortgage REITs, or MREITs. While mortgage spreads widening last Friday wasn’t a concern for most investors, MREITs were already “feeling the heat” when Silicon Valley Bank blew up, and could be “incinerated” if we have more days like March 10.
That’s because MREITs differ from traditional real estate investment trusts in that they buy individual mortgages and MBS instead of actual property. They do hedge out their duration risk, something Silicon Valley Bank didn’t do well.
However, that leaves the MREITs purely exposed to mortgage spreads. And keep in mind that MREITs are very big players in mortgages, since they use a lot of leverage to invest in what is normally very boring, low-return bonds.
That’s a potentially big problem.
With a lot of leverage, it might not take many more days like March 10 before some MREITs start facing issues. If that were to happen, they too might have to sell off their MBS portfolios, like Silicon Valley Bank may have to.
That in turn would put even more pressure on the rest of the MREIT sector, potentially forcing them to liquidate as well, and so on. I suspect this was a major reason why the U.S. government acted so quickly and forcefully.
The three stocks we picked were mentioned in the Financial Times article I mentioned earlier as among the largest MREITs around: AGNC Investment (AGNC) with $51.7 billion in assets; Starwood Property Trust (STWD) with $28.3 billion in assets; and Blackstone Mortgage Trust (BXMT) with $26.8 billion in assets.
With the power of the Magnifi Personal AI at our fingertips, we can get a lot more granular than just looking at one-year returns and volatility. For example, you can ask Magnifi Personal to extend the time frame to three years and add their Sharpe ratios, a measure of whether any extra return is outweighed by extra risk, to the comparison.
This lets you see how they fared over the whole pandemic period, which caused massive turbulence, and whether any extra returns are worth any extra risk.

This is an example of a response using Magnifi Personal. This image is not a recommendation or individual advice. Please see bottom disclaimer for additional information, including INO’s relationship with Magnifi.
Starwood again comes out on top. It might even be a good investment to consider, for those brave enough to wade in before the Silicon Valley Bank fallout clears out.

This research is just a starting point, of course. Magnifi Personal can easily compare these or any other stocks on many more criteria, such as dividend yield, margins, and much more. You can also ask it for competitors to these stocks, a list of similar stocks, and so on. Explore all the options, or have the Magnifi Personal investing AI start a new research journey for you today – simply click here get free access for 90 days!
In volatile times like these, this kind of in-depth and quick investing research is invaluable.
Latest from Magnifi Learn: Financial markets can seem intimidating at first glance. Between the jargon and the potential to lose some of your hard earned money, it’s easy to get overwhelmed. With a little knowledge you can gain the confidence to get started investing.

INO.com, a division of TIFIN Group LLC, is affiliated with Magnifi via common ownership. INO.com will receive cash compensation for referrals of clients who open accounts with Magnifi.
Magnifi LLC does not charge advisory fees or transaction fees for non-managed accounts. Clients who elect to have Magnifi LLC manage all or a portion of their account will be charged an advisory fee. Magnifi LLC receives compensation from product sponsors related to recommendations. Other fees and charges may apply.
Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss in a declining market. It is a method used to help manage investment risk.
Mutual Funds and Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) are sold by prospectus. Please consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses carefully before investing. The prospectus, which contains this and other information about the investment company, can be obtained from the Fund Company or your financial professional. Be sure to read the prospectus carefully before deciding whether to invest.

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Stock News by TIFIN

Planning to Retire in 10 Years? Buy This Stock Now

Amid persistent headwinds and fat tails, resilient demand and margins of Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) could shield retirement portfolios from unforeseen shocks while ensuring steady income generation in a topsy-turvy market. An expectation-meeting annual inflation rate of 6% for February and recent bank insolvencies could limit the Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate hike to a lower-than-previously-expected 25

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Investors Alley by TIFIN

Three Oil Refiner Stocks That Will Generate Massive Cashflow This Year

Recently, I dug into recent financial results of several downstream crude oil refiners. I am a fan of the energy subsector, but I was surprised at how well these companies can and will perform in the current energy price environment.

So surprised that I was happy to add a new refiner stock to my dividend growth-focused investment service recently.

Here’s why – and three refiners to consider for your own portfolio…

Successful fuel refining companies are some of the best-managed businesses in the U.S. They operate in an industry where the prices of both the raw materials (crude oil) and finished products (gasoline and other fuels) are set by outside market forces. Refiners have to live with whatever the commodity markets give them.

Refining profitability relates to the crack spread. The spread is the calculation of the price difference between refined products and the cost of a crude oil barrel. The benchmark 3-2-1 crack spread is the difference between three barrels of oil, two barrels of gasoline, and one barrel of distillates (diesel, jet fuel, heating oil). Put another way, the crack spread is the gross profit margin per barrel of oil when refined into fuels.

A modern, efficient refinery has an operating cost of $5.00 to $8.00 per barrel. Factor in other corporate expenses, and you get a breakeven at around a $10.00 crack spread. On this chart, the blue line is the U.S. crack spread with the corresponding value on the left side of the chart:

Over the decade, the crack spread ranged from a low of $7.50 in early 2020 to more than $58.00 last Spring. Historically, you can see the spread tended to be in a range of $15.00 to the low-$20s. The Russia-Ukraine war caused the prices of crude oil and fuels to spike higher, pushing the crack spread to record levels.

Next, let’s look at the same chart for the last six months:

If you watch the financial news, you may have observed that crude oil trading has been relatively stable, in a $70 to $80 range. You may also have noted that gasoline at the pump has been stable for several months. In my area, every station shows regular unleaded at $3.29 a gallon.

The recent price stability, from the end of November to the present, kept the crack spread locked in at $30 to $35 per barrel. At these levels, the refining companies are hugely profitable. Let’s look at the fourth quarter results from the three large independent refining companies:

Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) reported earnings of $6.65 per share, compared to $1.30 a year earlier

Phillips 66 (PSX) reported earnings of $4.00, up from $2.94 in the last quarter of 2021

Valero Energy Corp (VLO) reported $8.45 per share, up from $2.47 per share

If you annualize the Q4 earnings, these companies trade at a P/E ratio ranging from 4 for VLO to 6 for PSX. On a fundamental evaluation, these stocks are very cheap.

I expect the price of oil and the crack spread to stay current. We are already most of the way through the 2023 first quarter, and you can see that profits this quarter will be excellent.

I have one of the three listed refining companies in the portfolio for my Monthly Dividend Multiplier service, which employs a dividend growth strategy. This month I am adding a smaller regional refining company. Now is a great time to get overweight in the downstream energy space.

Three Oil Refiner Stocks That Will Generate Massive Cashflow This Year Read More »

Wealthpop

1 Banking Stock To Watch For A Recovery

In the wake of the SVB collapse, most banks took a hit as investor worry around this spreading to other banks increased dramatically. This made the entire financial sector look weak and take a nose dive. However, this dramatic decline has led to many other opportunities to crop up, we will take a look at one today.
PNC (PNC) established a pretty strong trendline at around 147 that it held for months, until recently. Even before the banking failure, the stock looked weak. Then, the banking collapse happened and that sent the stock reeling. It fell all the way to a low of 124 before finding a bottom, now we think there could be an opportunity to play the rebound if the space continues to recover.
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