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Gold price came very close to hitting the double barrier at $2,070-$2,100 of the black path target and the upper boundary of the bullish trend channel outlined earlier this month. The new 1-year top has been established at $2,063.
You were amazingly accurate this time as most of the votes were for the black path to lead the way. The market has since reversed to the downside, raising the question of whether it was a hard top or a glass ceiling.
To answer this question, let me show you an updated chart below.
Source: TradingView
The price has slid down to the pink mid-channel support within the black bullish trend channel.

In the RSI sub-chart, we can clearly spot a bearish divergence as the falling peaks didn’t confirm the new top in the price chart. This has been playing out, pushing the price down. The indicator’s reading has reached the key support of 50, just like the price.
Let us watch how the price would react at this double edge of the mid-channel and the RSI’s support. The price still could bounce to the upside and challenge the recent top as well as the upside of the trend.
The bearish signal would come on the breakdown. In this case, the black path would be confirmed and the top of $2,063 would act as a peak of the first large move to the upside.

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In the following chart I will zoom out and share a bigger picture on the weekly time frame.
Source: TradingView
This could be an eye-opening chart with three major scenarios. Sometimes it is worth to zoom out of short time frames and squeeze the chart to see a bigger map that appears.
The gold price chart is showing a potential Triple Top pattern, which poses a major risk for the price. The pattern is formed by three peaks in the same area between $2,000 and $2,100.
If this pattern is confirmed, it could be unpleasant for gold investors as the price would be expected to retest the valley of 2018 at $1,167, which is where the previous major bullish move had started (red arrow).

It seems that the black path may have been the preferred option before taking a broader view of the chart.
However, upon examination of the chart, it appears that the current top may just be the first move up, which has been retraced within a middle-sized consolidation. It is anticipated that after completion of the consolidation, another move up could potentially reach the $2,200 area.
The green path suggests that the zigzags between $2,100 and $1,600 represent a large consolidation, but the final move down to retest the green box has not yet occurred for completion. Once that happens, a large upside move of greater magnitude could potentially emerge, reaching the $2,500 area.

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Intelligent trades!
Aibek BurabayevINO.com Contributor
Disclosure: This contributor has no positions in any stocks mentioned in this article. This article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. This contributor is not receiving compensation (other than from INO.com) for their opinion.

The United Nations and other allied states around the world have been supporting Ukraine with military supplies since the very early days of the war. With the war in Europe still raging more than a year after it began, allied munitions stockpiles and military supplies are starting to get thin.
But, at some point, these countries’ reserves will reach a depleted level they are no longer comfortable with and be forced to restock. Let’s be honest; that point has already come and gone.
So today, countries in Europe and America are not only still giving Ukranie military aid, but also replacing their arms.
But something similar is also occurring in Asia, as China continues with aggressive talk pertaining to Taiwan. Furthermore, China has been heavily spending on its own military and set its defense spending growth at 7.2% in 2023, in line with where it was in 2022.

Even here in the U.S., the projected 2024 budget for defense spending came in at $842 billion, or $26 billion higher than where it was in 2023 and more than $100 billion higher than in 2022.
Even if the war weren’t taking place in Europe today, there would likely be an arms race around the world, and many believe it will only get worse since geopolitical tensions are still brewing in Asia.
So, how can you play this arms race?
Buy Defense and Aerospace Exchange Traded Funds and relax.
Not sure which ones to buy? Let’s take a look at a few.
The first ETF I would look at is the iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA).
ITA is the largest Defense and Aerospace ETF, with just over $6 billion in assets under management. ITA also has a reasonable expense ratio at 0.39% and has had a solid performance over the last few years. ITA is up 4.32% year-to-date but more than 14.9% annualized over the previous three years. ITA also has 100% of its assets invested in U.S. companies and has 37 holdings.
The next ETF I would look at is the Invesco Aerospace & Defense ETF (PPA).
PPA is the second largest defense ETF by assets under management with $1.9 billion. PPA’s expense ratio is a little higher at 0.61%. PPA also has a small percentage of its holdings from outside the U.S. PPA has also performed well year-to-date with a gain of 4.6%, and it is up 7.79% annualized over the last five years and 15% annualized over the previous ten years.
Next, we have the SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF (XAR) with $1.5 billion in assets is slightly smaller than PPA.
XAR has 34 holdings, all of which are based in the U.S. and has the lowest expense ratio yet at just 0.35%. XAR’s performance is also about the same as PPA and ITA, so don’t tell yourself the lower fee means worse performance. Out of the vanilla Aerospace and Defense ETFs, XAR is probably the best, simply because it is the cheapest.
The other two ETFs I would look at are the ARK Space Exploration & Innovation ETF (ARKX) and the leveraged Direxion Daily Aerospace & Defense Bull 3X Shares ETF (DFEN).

Cathy Wood led ARKX ETF combined defense, aerospace and space exploration stocks together since so many have a lot in common or sell products in two or even all three industries. However, the ARKX fund charges 0.70% expense ratio and doesn’t have the best performance during its short history.
The DFERN fund isn’t any less risky since it is three times leveraged ETF. DFEN tracks the DJ US Select Aerospace and Defense index but will move three times the magnitude. Furthermore, DFEN charges an 0.97% expense ratio and should only be held daily. DFEN is up 9.54% year-to-date but down 16% annualized over the last five years.
Unfortunately, this is our world, where war rages, and arms races are never-ending.
But since this is where we are, you may want to make money on it, and the above ETFs are a few ways you can do so.
Matt ThalmanINO.com ContributorFollow me on Twitter @mthalman5513
Disclosure: This contributor did not hold a position in any investment mentioned above at the time this blog post was published. This article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. This contributor is not receiving compensation (other than from INO.com) for their opinion.

It’s been a mixed year thus far for the Restaurant industry group, with several quick-service names rallying near all-time highs while casual dining names have struggled to stay in positive territory for the year.
The underperformance of the latter group can be attributed to weaker traffic trends in the casual dining space relative to quick-service.
This is not surprising given that we are seeing a pullback in spending from some consumers and quick-service is a trade-down option relative to casual dining, with consumers able to treat themselves with convenience with pizzas, burgers, and fries without breaking the bank at a casual dining restaurant where average checks are closer to $20.00.
However, while we’ve seen Yum Brands (YUM) and McDonald’s (MCD) continue to make new highs with both up 15% and 25% from their pre-COVID-19 highs, a couple of names remain well below their all-time highs and continue to trade at attractive valuations.

This is despite these two companies having iconic brands similar to McDonald’s, and KFC, Taco Bell, and Pizza Hut (Yum Brands), and despite them having some of the better growth profiles sector-wide.
In this update, we’ll dig into these two companies and highlight why they could be outperformers after a period of underperformance in Dominos Pizza’s (DPZ) case, and years of underperformance in the case of Restaurant Brands International (QSR).
Restaurant Brands International (QSR)
Restaurant Brands International is a $21.2 billion franchisor in the Restaurant industry group with four iconic brands under its umbrella: Burger King, Popeye’s Chicken, Firehouse Subs, and Tim Hortons.
The three latter brands were acquired by Restaurant Brands International over the past decade and they currently make up roughly one-third of its system-wide stores which are spread across over 100 countries.
The largest of its brands is Burger King with ~19,000 restaurants, with Tim Hortons just behind at ~5,600 restaurants, Popeye’s Chicken having ~4,000 restaurants, and Firehouse Subs, the smallest brand, having roughly 1,200 restaurants and operating solely in North America.
Digging into the company’s FY2022 results, Restaurant Brands International reported 12.9% system-wide sales growth to $38.7 billion, which was driven by a 4.4% increase in its consolidated store count and ~8.5% growth in same-store sales.
This translated to annual revenue of $6.51 billion (+14% growth year-over-year) and annual EPS of $3.13, a 12% increase year-over-year. The latter was helped by opportunistic share buybacks, with RBI returning over $1.3 billion in capital to shareholders, or roughly 5% of its total market cap.
However, the major news was that Joshua Kobza has been appointed the new CEO, while Patrick Doyle has replaced Jose Cil as Executive Chairman of Restaurant Brands International, a significant shake-up that is overdue for the company.
For those unfamiliar, Patrick Doyle was transformational for the Domino’s Pizza brand, with the stock increasing over 1500% under his tenure and massively outperforming its peer group. And while 3G Capital is an investment firm known for cost-cutting, this was the wrong approach for a Burger King brand that needed investment to revitalize the brand that has been losing market share to McDonald’s.
Therefore, I see this new plan of re-investment (“Reclaim The Flame”) under management with significant experience in the sector and a strong track record as a huge upgrade for Restaurant Brands International, and I would expect better results from Burger King going forward which has unfortunately overshadowed the strong growth we’ve seen at its three smaller brands.
So, why buy a turnaround story like Restaurant Brands International?
Generally, I prefer to buy the leaders in a sector vs. turnaround stories given that turnaround stories are in some cases lower quality and can take a while to get out of the proverbial penalty box and start outperforming.
However, and in the case of Restaurant Brands International, the ingredients are in place for a successful turnaround (new management, reinvestment in its weaker brands, strong unit growth at smaller brands), and the valuation is right, with Restaurant Brands International trading at just ~17.4x FY2025 earnings estimates ($3.96) vs. McDonald’s at ~23.0x FY2025 earnings and ~21.0x, respectively.
I don’t see any reason that Restaurant Brands International should trade at this large of a discount, especially when it has the best dividend in the group and the highest growth rate, making it even more attractive in a market where it’s hard to find growing dividend yields above 3.0% with growth stocks.
In fact, based on what I believe to be a fair multiple of 24.5x earnings, I see a fair value (two-year target price) for Restaurant Brands International of $97.00 per share, pointing to a near 50% total return when including dividends.
Plus, it’s worth noting that Chairman Patrick Doyle has tens of millions of reasons to execute successfully on this turnaround, with a significant compensation tied to performance if the share price averages at least a 10% compound annualized return over five years.
(Source: TC2000.com)
Finally, if we look at the stock from a technical standpoint, QSR is testing key resistance at the $69.00 level which dates all the way back to 2017 despite this being a much larger brand with the addition of Popeye’s Chicken and Firehouse Subs in the period and a stronger management team at the helm.
This significant underperformance suggests that if QSR can breakout we could see it play significant catch up, with a quarterly breakout above $69.00 targeting a move to $92.00 as the first major target.
So, with undervaluation relative to peers, a turnaround story with a lot of promise, and a massive base having been built that is targeting much higher prices on a successful breakout, I see QSR as one of the best buy-the-dip candidates in the market today, and I would view pullbacks below $65.50 as buying opportunities.
Dominos Pizza’s (DPZ)
Dominos Pizza needs little introduction as the world’s largest pizza chain with nearly 7,000 restaurants in the United States alone, ~20,000 restaurants in over 90 markets, and global sales of nearly $18.0 billion.
The company briefly traded at a market cap of ~$20.0 billion at its peak in Q4 2021, but trades at a market cap of just $11.4 billion today based on ~35.4 million shares outstanding.
And while the significant decline in the stock over the past year from a high of $565.00 (~45% correction) has unnerved many investors that didn’t take profits after its incredible run off its COVID-19 lows (~90% gain in 20 months), I don’t see any damage to the long-term picture, and see this correction being more to do with the stock getting ahead of itself at its Q4 2021 highs.
Dominos Pizza released its 2022 results in late February, reporting global retail sales up 4% year-over-year, and 5.2% in Q4 2022. This was below estimates and resulted in a decline in annual EPS when factoring in inflationary pressures, with annual EPS coming in at $12.53 vs. $13.60 in FY2021.
Like Restaurant Brands, Dominos is primarily a franchisor model and although the increase in the cost of its market basket and supply chain headwinds hurt earnings, the impact was minimal given that its company-owned restaurants make up just 2% of its system (402 restaurants).
And while the company reported solid free cash flow generation (~$390 million) and saw 5% unit growth last year, its guidance and earnings performance was a disappointment.
As noted above, the 8% decline in annual EPS took the market by surprise after seven years of consecutive annual EPS growth, and the updated unit growth outlook of 5-7% vs. 6-8% spooked the market a little, as did the updated outlook of 4-8% global retail sales growth (two to three year outlook), which was down from 6-10% previously.
That said, the stock has been punished accordingly, and this outlook for weaker growth over the next few years looks priced into the stock already.
I see this as especially true given that we continue to be in a difficult economic environment and pizza and quick-service are typically the winners from a traffic standpoint when consumers decide to be more judicious with their spending.
So, what’s a fair value for the stock?
Dominos has historically traded at ~32.0x earnings yet has found itself trading at just ~19.1x FY2025 earnings estimates and ~21.7x FY2024 earnings estimates which is a massive discount to its historical multiple.
One could argue that a lower multiple is justified given that annual EPS is expected to decelerate from its previous growth rate of 14-18%.
That said, even if we use a fair multiple of 28.0x earnings and FY2024 earnings estimates of $15.02, I see a fair value for the stock of $420.60. This points to a 30% upside from current levels or closer to 32% on a total return basis which is quite attractive for a more defensive name that has historically outperformed in recessionary periods.
(Source: TC2000.com)
Lastly, if we look at the technical picture, Dominos Pizza is re-testing a multi-year prior resistance level and this is often an area where stocks will find support.

So, not only is the stock trading at a deep discount to its historical multiple and its large-cap peer group but it’s at a pivotal area from a technical standpoint where I would expect buyers to show up.
So, if DPZ were to see further weakness below $314.00, I would view this as a buying opportunity.
There are several names on the sale rack in the restaurant space after the underperformance year-to-date, but not all names are created equal, and some names are cheap for a reason.
However, in the case of QSR and DPZ, I see these as top-5 names in the industry group from a quality and growth standpoint and given their underperformance, they’re also quite attractive from a relative value standpoint.
Hence, I have recently started positions in both names at lower levels, and I would consider adding to my position if we drop below $65.50 on QSR and $314.00 on DPZ.
Disclosure: I am long QSR, DPZ
Taylor DartINO.com Contributor
Disclaimer: This article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. Taylor Dart is not a Registered Investment Advisor or Financial Planner. This writing is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation to buy, or a recommendation regarding any securities transaction. The information contained in this writing should not be construed as financial or investment advice on any subject matter. Taylor Dart expressly disclaims all liability in respect to actions taken based on any or all of the information in this writing.