Investors Alley

The Kraneshares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB) is a popular ETF for options trading with 120,000 contracts traded per day on average. KWEB can be volatile but it has rebounded significantly from November of last year. Last week, a trader purchased over 20,000 of what appear to be bullish call spreads in KWEB March options. […]

A reverse stock split usually occurs when a company in some sort of financial trouble is in danger of being delisted from the stock exchange. Because of the negative connotation, I was surprised to see, on January 20, business development company Oaktree Specialty Lending (OCSL) announce a 1-for-3 reverse stock split.

A subscriber wrote in to ask me about this – what happened, why, and how the dividend payouts behave afterward.

And it reminded me that sometimes, these reverse stock splits actually work in our favor…

A reverse stock split increases the share price without increasing the value or market cap of the company. Most of the time, you will see a reverse split declared when a company’s share price decreases to one dollar or less, as a stock will be delisted from the exchange if it trades below a dollar for any length of time.

Typically, a company whose stock has dropped to the dollar range is also a company that is not doing well with its business. As a result, investors see a reverse split as a sign the company may be in trouble; increasing the share price with this maneuver won’t stop the price from continuing on a downward trajectory.

Because of the negative connotation, I was surprised to see, on January 20, business development company Oaktree Specialty Lending (OCSL) announce a 1-for-3 reverse stock split. Let’s go over what that meant.

With the Oaktree reverse split, investors would receive one share for every three they owned. If an investor had 300 shares, he would have 100 shares after the transaction. At the same time, the share price increases by the same factor. At the time of the reverse split, OCSL went from around $7 per share to $21. This means the 300 shares worth $2,100 became 100 shares worth $2,100.

A subscriber asked me what happens to a dividend with such a reverse split.

Oaktree Specialty Lending will adjust its dividend rate to match the reverse split. The company paid $0.18 per share paid at the end of December, meaning it will now pay $0.54 per share—or more, as the company has been growing its dividend. The adjusted dividend will keep the yield near the 10% level that was in effect before the reverse split.

The reason for the Oaktree reverse split seems to be a move to make the share price appear to have more value. Investors are sometimes leery of a sub $10 share price—but at $20 per share, OCSL trades on par with many of its BDC peers.

In the case of Oaktree Specialty Lending, the reverse split definitely is NOT a danger signal. The company is well-run, and I would give it a top-five rating in the universe of business development companies. BDCs become more profitable when interest rates are higher, and OCSL has been growing its dividend.

I currently recommend three other BDCs to my Dividend Hunter subscribers. If I decided to add a fourth, OCSL would be the most likely choice.
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There has been one very apparent trend since late October 2022. Following more than a decade of outperformance, global stocks have been consistently outpacing U.S. stocks.

There are several reasons for this. But one major factor is the shift away from growth stocks—an area where the U.S. dominates—to value stocks.

It looks to me that when investors get interested in value, they get interested in rest-of-world stocks, too. That’s because stock markets outside the U.S. are heavily weighted on value sectors such as energy, industrials, and financials.

Here’s where to look for the best emerging market stocks…

More importantly, for those investors who simply define “value stocks” as “cheap stocks,” global stocks are so much cheaper than U.S. stocks. Despite a bad 2022, the S&P 500 still trades at a premium of almost 50% to the Euro Stoxx 600 or Japan’s Topix index (measured in terms of price/earnings ratios)! That’s historically high and about as wide as the discount gets, in recent decades.

Why Emerging Markets Now

The same holds true even more so when you look at emerging markets, where markets were concerned about a worldwide recession, weighing on valuations throughout 2022.

That was a period in which the MSCI Emerging Markets index fell by about 20% in dollar terms. And last year’s severe slump in the MSCI index came about even though the economies of India, Brazil and Indonesia grew at a faster clip than the U.S.

Here’s why emerging markets look so interesting now…

First, historically emerging markets have recovered from previous economic cyclical downturns ahead of their U.S. and other developed world counterparts.

Second, emerging market economies have been relatively resilient this time around, compared to prior economic cycles. Current account deficits are significantly lower than they were a decade ago, leaving economies less vulnerable to capital outflows.

Third, most emerging market borrowing now takes place in local currencies. That means we should not expect the kind of explosive debt crises in the major emerging markets like those seen in the past because of a rising U.S. dollar value.

Also, many emerging markets have been on the front foot with rate hikes. This has resulted in a higher interest rate differential between the U.S. and emerging markets, which has limited outflows from the riskier countries.

Next, earnings revisions for many emerging markets companies for 2023 moved into positive territory in late 2022. In addition, after falling to 9% during the pandemic, profitability—or return on equity (ROE)—in emerging markets has increased by 5%, to approximately 14%.

And finally, emerging market stocks are dirt-cheap, compared to developed market stocks.

An analysis from Lazard Asset Management demonstrated that emerging market valuations are cheap in both absolute and relative terms.

Here is how Lazard described the numbers:

Emerging markets valuations, on both a price-to-earnings (P/E) and price-to-book (P/B) basis, are cheap in absolute terms and relative to developed markets equities. Emerging markets have been trading at a 35% discount to developed markets on P/E terms and at a 44% discount on P/B terms, among the cheapest discounts in nearly two decades. The 1.6x superior dividend yield for emerging markets (3.3% versus 2.1% for developed markets) is three standard deviations above the 23-year average relative yield.

For those investors with more risk, China is even cheaper than other emerging markets. The average forward price/earnings ratio for constituents of the MSCI China index stands at a multiple of 8.2 times, versus 11.5 times for the MSCI Emerging Markets index.

EM Rally

Emerging market stocks looked to have bottomed. The MSCI Emerging Markets index has risen more than 21% from its intraday low on October 25, according to Refinitiv data. This upbeat recent run comes after a painful stretch between February 2021 and late October 2021, when the MSCI EM index tumbled more than 40%.

As of October 2022, the decline of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index had exceeded the average decline of the previous 10 bear markets, including the 1997 Asia Financial Crisis.

Chinese stocks, which are the biggest weight in the MSCI Emerging Market index, have risen sharply since the autumn. The MSCI index tracking China’s stock market has rallied more than 45% since October 31 in U.S. dollar terms, according to FactSet data. The more widely followed CSI 300 index is up 23% since then.

What Comes Next

I find myself largely in agreement with Lazard’s assessment of emerging market stocks, which said:

For investors, the steep drop in equity markets overall in 2022 may raise the question of where to find value and long-term opportunity. We believe that emerging markets may be one of the most mis-priced asset classes, with attractive valuations compared with historical levels.…

Much capital has left emerging markets in recent years, and many parts of the asset class are under-owned and attractively valued as a result. Overall, emerging markets equities are among these particularly attractively valued assets with high financial productivity (or return on equity, free cash flow yield, and dividend yield).

I believe the end of China’s zero-Covid obsession and the reopening of its borders will act as an immediate growth catalyst, while moderating bond yields and a lower U.S. dollar valuation should also boost emerging market performance.

An easy way to get broad exposure is through the ETF based on the MSCI Emerging Market index—the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM). It is already up 9.5% year-to-date and trading at $41.87. It’s a buy on any short-term weakness.
It’s not REITs or blue chips like Disney. A small, little-talked about area of the dividend stock market is pumping out market-beating returns like no tomorrow. Over 22 years, they’ve handily beat the market… and I have the #1 stock of these to give you now.

Medallion Financial (MFIN) is a credit services company that made its name through taxi medallion financing in New York City. It has since diversified its businesses as ride sharing has become mainstream, and the stock has done well so far in 2023. However, a large trader or fund bought thousands of March 5 puts last

I keep track of the income-focused investments other writers recommend across the Internet. It is interesting to see what they report when one of my Dividend Hunter recommendations becomes a “hot idea” in the financial press.

Recently, at least a half dozen writers on Seeking Alpha have written (mostly positive) articles about one of these recommendations.

And I don’t blame them. Let me show you why I like it so much for generating income in my investment portfolio…

I’m talking about none other than JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF (JEPI). The fund launched in May 2020, and since that time, it has grown to be one of the ten largest actively managed ETFs.

I added my first covered call ETF to the Dividend Hunter portfolio in July 2020. I added JEPI a year later, in July 2021. Seeing a fund that my subscribers have owned for more than a year and a half get “discovered” by a broader audience is fun.

Covered Call ETFs use an option selling strategy (covered calls) to generate income from an underlying portfolio. Many investors use covered call trading to generate cash income from their stock portfolios. At the institutional level, such as with JEPI, the portfolio managers has access to advanced, synthetic securities that more efficiently mirror a covered call trading program. The JP Morgan website includes the below in describing its JEPI strategy:

Defensive equity portfolio employs a time-tested, bottom-up fundamental research process with stock selection based on our proprietary risk-adjusted stock rankings.

Disciplined options overlay implements written out-of-the-money S&P 500 Index call options to generate distributable monthly income.

JEPI sports a current SEC yield of 11.77%. Covered call selling generates attractive cash income with the trade-off of capping potential gains. I like to look at potential returns with different market scenarios.

A well-managed covered call strategy should outperform the underlying portfolio in a flat to slowing-rising stock market. Selling out-of-the-money calls gives some capital appreciation potential and income from selling options.

In a falling market, a covered call strategy won’t magically produce positive returns, but it will limit the damage. For example, in 2022, the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY) lost 18.8%, and JEPI posted a negative 3.54% return. The fund gave almost 15% better return.

A covered call ETF will not keep up in a rapidly rising bull market. In 2021, SPY returned 30.6%. For the same year, JEPI returned 21.5%.

For my Dividend Hunter service, I use JEPI and other variable dividend investments to provide some higher-yielding balance to the stable dividend payors in the portfolio. I always emphasize that proper portfolio management offers more stability and better returns than focusing on individual investment ideas. I have found JEPI to be one of the best covered call ETFs.
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In perhaps the most famous line from the mid-1980s television show The A-Team, A-Team leader Colonel John “Hannibal” Smith (George Peppard) often said: “I love it when a plan comes together”.

Apparently, Hannibal Smith retired from the A-Team to join the executive team at the global mining giant, Rio Tinto PLC (RIO), because the company’s strategic moves over the past few years are really starting to come together. Long-term decision-making and some smart acquisitions are providing a strong growth path for the miner.

And you can still get in.

Production guidance for 2023, released in mid-January alongside Rio Tinto’s fourth quarter output numbers, shows increased output for iron ore, copper and alumina/bauxite. And the company is moving quickly to build a lithium test plant at the Rincon mine in Argentina, which it bought last year—a really important move for Rio Tinto’s future.

RBC analyst Tyler Broda recently agreed that the company’s long-term planning was bearing fruit. He told clients that “The company’s portfolio has some compelling options and, unlike the other majors [mining firms], offers growing lithium exposure.”

I believe lithium will become a bigger part of the company’s future.

Rio Tinto signed a memorandum of understanding with Ford in 2022 that could result in the carmaker becoming a flagstone customer for the miner’s Argentine lithium supply. As the company’s CFO, Peter Cunningham, said: “Critical minerals is clearly important from a policy perspective for many governments [and companies] for security of supply.”

Rio Tinto Guidance

Rio Tinto is already an extraordinary company and organized into four segments: iron ore (65% of first half 2022 EBITDA), aluminum (18%), copper (9%), and minerals (8%). The minerals division produces salt, borates, mineral sands, and diamonds.

What really impressed me was the company’s exceptional fourth quarter results and its raised guidance. Rio Tinto’s 89.5 million tons of iron ore production translates to annualized production of nearly 350 million tons. Guidance for 2021 was at 320 million to 335 million tons. The company held onto 2022 cost guidance, and more specific numbers will be released next month. I suspect iron ore guidance will be raised at that time.

Rio Tinto hiked another key metal—copper— for 2023, to between 650,000 tons and 710,000 tons after the company bought out the minority investors in the Oyu Tolgoi holding company Turquoise Hill Resources for $3 billion. Copper production last year for Rio Tinto was 521,000 tons.

For those of you unfamiliar with Oyu Tolgoi, it is located in the South Gobi region of Mongolia and is one of the world’s largest known copper and gold deposits. At peak production, Oyu Tolgoi is expected to produce 500,000 tons annually of copper.

Why Buying Rio Tinto is a Good Idea

Argus Research summed up nicely why Rio Tinto is a buy: “Rio Tinto has strengthened its operating performance and balance sheet by cutting costs and selling non-core assets. It also continues to return cash to shareholders through dividend increases. Despite the recent drop in commodity prices, we note that Rio has traditionally performed well during difficult economic times, and, in our view, has strong long-term growth opportunities.…On the fundamentals, Rio’s ADRs are trading at 7-times our 2022 EPS estimate, well below the five-year average.”

I would add that the expected full reopening of China’s economy after several years of coronavirus pandemic-related lockdowns will boost demand greatly for what Rio Tinto and other miners produce. China accounted for about 60% of Rio’s sales in 2021.

And Rio Tinto has a large portfolio of long-lived assets with low operating costs. That means it is one of few miners that can remain profitable throughout the commodity cycle. Most of its ore sources come from operations located in the safe havens of Australia and North America.

Rio Tinto pays a regular dividend twice a year, in April and September, and often also pays a special dividend. Management’s target payout ratio is 40% to 60% of underlying earnings.

The 2018 dividend was $4.08, or $3.08 from the regular dividend plus a $1.00 special dividend. The 2019 dividend was $4.43, including a regular dividend of $3.82 and a special dividend of $0.61. In 2020, it paid a regular dividend of $4.64 and a special dividend of $0.93. In 2021, it paid total dividends of $13.49 per share.

Dividend estimates are $8.00 for both 2022 and 2023. However, with China reopening, commodity prices are likely headed higher in 2023. This will boost the fortunes of Rio and other miners.

I suspect the dividend for 2023 will be closer to $10.00 per share. But even if it does come in at $8.00, the dividend yield would still be in excess of 10% based on the current stock price.

Rio Tinto is a buy anywhere in the $70s per share.
That’s what my old coworker told me years ago. I listened up because he was the most successful broker I ever worked with. And also incredibly lazy. He found a small niche in the market no one talks about and made enough to buy in the most expensive zip code in Maryland. Here’s what he invested in.

2022 was a tough year for internet search giant, Alphabet (GOOGL). Could the share price recover in 2023? At least for the next 3 months, one trader or fund thinks the stock has over 10% upside potential. The trader placed a large block of covered calls, which allows for about $12 of upside in the

Last year, if you held your stocks…

You’re likely sitting on double-digit losses over a 12-month timeframe. 

Drawdowns in your portfolio can be crippling to your future wealth and income. 

If you lose 50% of your portfolio… it requires a 100% return to get back to even. 

As you can imagine, losing 50% is much easier than making 100%. 

I talk a little about this phenomenon today in my free weekly video. 

It’s only 3 minutes long, but I discuss this topic…

But, as a bonus, I share what investment YOU MUST buy in this market that’s almost risk-free. (that bonus is at the end). 

Hint — it’s NOT a stock.

Click here to learn more about avoiding drawdowns and what asset to buy now, 
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You’ll see them every year, right after all the market predictors are done with their end-of-year foolishness: countless articles that advise you to buy what the world’s best investors are buying.

The problem is that most of those advising you to “buy what the world’s best investors are buying” have no idea who the best investors are right now.

Warren Buffett is always mentioned. While it is true that Warren has one of the best long-term track records of all time, his public portfolio returns could have been better over the last two decades.

As for the investors who have ­actually had the best returns lately, you may not have heard of them – or where they’re putting their money…

It’s not that following in Buffett’s footsteps wouldn’t have been fine. Owning Berkshire Hathaway’s (BRK-A) top 20 holdings with the same portfolio weight that Warren has given them, each stock has earned 8.97% annually since 2001. The returns increased to 9.92% annually over the last ten years, and while that beats the S&P 500’s 7.30% over the same time frame, it is not a best-in-class return.

Carl Icahn’s name will also come up. And Icahn is, in fact, one of the greatest investors of all time—studying every deal he has done since the 1970s would give you an education no business school in the world could match.

However, Icahn has also lagged behind the S&P 500 over the last decade with an annualized return of 11.87%.

Seth Klarman of Baupost is, similarly, one of the best investors of all time. However, his equities portfolio has returned just 6.59% over the past decade. Most of his fund’s assets are in fixed income and real estate opportunities not reported in 13F filings.

The superstars of yesterday are now aging billionaires whose goals differ from those of us who are still looking to pile up wealth as rapidly as possible. Plus, their funds have billions of dollars, making it far more challenging to take advantage of the most attractive opportunities.

I will spend a couple of issues identifying who the best investors are today, and share a few ideas they have been buying recently that might offer outstanding potential returns.

For starters: have you heard of Electron Capital?

Most investors have not, but the New York firm, which invests in companies focused on the transition of energy consumption towards lower carbon intensity solutions, has one of the best track records in the game.

Electron is investing in companies committed to producing clean energy and developing infrastructure for the energy transition process, as well as the utilities that will provide cleaner energy to homes and industries in the future.

It is no secret that I am still a huge fan of fossil fuels, but I have also made it clear that I believe in the eventual transition to green energy. Of course, we will still burn oil and gas, but renewable energy will be the fastest-growing segment of the energy industry.

How good is Electron Capital?

Look at a few stocks it sold recently to see how good it is.

In the third quarter, Electron sold out of Enphase Energy (ENHP), the popular solar inverter company, at a price of about $276. Its first purchase of the stock was back in 2017, long before every talking head and pundit recommended it. At the time, Electron paid a split-adjusted price of $1.37.

Electron also sold a bunch of Quanta Services (PWR) in the quarter for an estimated price of $127. The firm’s first purchase of the stock was in 2018, at around $33.

The firm has returned in excess of 33% over the past three years for its investors. In addition, over the past 17 years, the firm has outperformed the S&P 500 by a 2.5-to-1 margin and the World Utilities Index by more than 13 times.

One of Electron Capital’s newest positions is Eos Energy Enterprises (EOSE), a company that designs, manufactures, and deploys battery storage solutions for utility, commercial, industrial, and renewable energy markets.

Eos Energy has developed Znyth, an aqueous zinc battery designed to overcome the limitations of conventional lithium-ion technology. This company has a long-shot element, but if the battery works at a utility level, this stock could be a ten-bagger as the energy transition progresses.

Electron Capital was also adding to its already large position in Stem (STEM), a global leader in AI-driven clean energy software and services. Stem’s AI- software platform, Athena, enables organizations to use AI to deploy and unlock value from large-scale clean energy assets. The company also provides solutions to help improve returns across energy projects, including storage, solar, and electric vehicle fleet charging.

Over the next several decades, there is an enormous amount of money to be made in both fossil fuels and renewable energy.

I have fossil fuels more than covered in both Underground Income and The 2023 Turnaround Project, but investors looking to uncover energy transition opportunities might do well to track the buying and selling of Electron Capital.

I will be doing the same here at the Hidden Profits Report.
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Forget about the metaverse. The “next big thing” in the world of technology is Generative AI, a type of artificial intelligence that is capable of producing original content from scratch. Someday—hopefully not too soon—generative AI will be able to write articles like this, thus putting me out of a job.

And one of the most important Big Tech companies is now making a huge investment in this area…

Venture capital investment into generative AI has increased 425% since 2020 to $2.1 billion in 2022, according to PitchBook. That is about as much as the amount invested in all of the previous five years combined!

The global market for AI-augmented content solutions likely hit $2.3 billion in 2022, and research from PitchBook predicts it will grow an overall 17% through 2025. But the group added that: “…the technology might not generate high revenues in the short term, as professions resist AI solutions and the technology still has to mature.”

One of the leading companies in this field is OpenAI, which was founded in 2015. Its ChatGPT made its public debut in December 2022. ChatGPT, which can converse with users, surpassed 1 million users in just five days.

So, it is notable that Microsoft (MSFT) is considering a $10 billion investment into OpenAI that would value the entire company at $29 billion. Let’s consider the implications of this possible deal.

Why Microsoft Is Interested in OpenAI

If Microsoft does go through with this investment, it will be doubling down (technically dectupling down!) on an already-successful bet—in 2019, the company invested $1 billion in OpenAI in exchange for the right to integrate the start-up’s work into its own products.

This deal included the use of Microsoft’s Azure cloud computing platform to conduct experiments. Under the deal, Microsoft got the first shot at commercializing early results from OpenAI’s research.

Since then, Microsoft has incorporated OpenAI technology into a coding tool. But Microsoft sees much more. As Eric Boyd, head of AI platforms at Microsoft, explained to the Financial Times: “These [AI] models are going to change the way that people interact with computers. They understand your intent in a way that hasn’t been possible before and can translate that to computer actions.” Talking to a computer as naturally as to a person will revolutionize the everyday experience of using technology, Boyd added.

Recent reports do suggest that a much more consequential team-up is in the works between the two companies. One possibility involves putting OpenAI’s technology in Microsoft’s Bing search engine as well as the company’s widely used productivity programs like Office.

The company has already used OpenAI’s technology in a number of its own products. Its Azure cloud customers have been able to pay for access to GPT-3, a text-generating AI model, since 2021. Dall-E 2—an image generating system that excited the AI world last year—is the base of a recent Microsoft graphic design product called Designer, and has also been made available through the Bing search engine. And finally, Codex—a system that prompts software developers with suggestions of which lines of code to write next—has been turned into a product by GitHub, a Microsoft service for developers.

Microsoft’s AI Future

Of course, an investment of $10 billion into OpenAI is a drop in the bucket for Microsoft, accounting for less than one-sixth of the company’s free cash flow last year. But because of OpenAI’s technology, the potential return is enormous. Much of its tech stems from the creation of so-called large language models, which are trained on huge amounts of text. Unlike the earlier forms of machine learning that dominated AI for the last decade, this technique has led to systems that can be used in a much wider variety of uses, boosting their commercial value.

If Microsoft does go through with the $10 billion investment in OpenAI, it could easily give the software giant a big leg up on its archrival, Alphabet (GOOGL), with a technology that Google itself sees as “a code red” challenge to its cash-cow search business.

However, at the moment, that seems like a stretch. ChatGPT may be able to write coherent-sounding articles. But when you read closely, they are rife with errors, and there are worries that the technology could end up spreading misinformation on a massive scale. That’s why, for example, Stack Overflow, a Q&A website for software developers, has banned ChatGPT, saying its responses cannot be trusted.

At the moment, Microsoft is trying to make a deal with little financial risk. It wants to get the bulk of OpenAI’s profits until it recoups its investment, and the company would own nearly half of this potential AI powerhouse. And any potential deal would further tie the highly data-intensive OpenAI to Microsoft’s Azure cloud service.

You see, processing ChatGPT queries isn’t cheap or easy. OpenAI’s CEO, Sam Altman, prices the platform’s answers at several cents apiece. In fact, on Twitter, Altman said: “…the compute costs are eye-watering.” Analysts at Morgan Stanley estimate that the higher cost of natural language processing means that answering a query using ChatGPT costs around seven times as much as a typical internet search.

As mentioned before, Microsoft’s Azure is providing the vast computing power needed to power OpenAI’s technology. To produce and improve their output, AI systems like ChatGPT need to suck up and process huge amounts of data. Microsoft’s Azure is among the few services that can deliver that kind of horsepower.

Of course, competitors are flocking to the space, with Google and others plowing resources into creating AI models like what OpenAI has created. But since GPT3 stunned the AI world in 2020 with its ability to produce large blocks of text on demand, OpenAI has set the pace with a succession of eye-catching public demonstrations.

If Microsoft is right about the far-reaching implications of generative AI technology, a deal with OpenAI could trigger a complete realignment in the world of AI. OpenAI seems to be the right horse in this race to become the primary platform on which the next era of AI will be built. So Microsoft is positioned to be the winner in the AI field—at least, for now.
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