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With demand for electric vehicles on the run, investors may want to keep an eye on charging stocks, like ChargePoint Holdings (CHPT).
Remember, not only do global leaders want millions of EVs on the road, California is about to prohibit the sale of gas-powered cars.
“The rule, issued by the California Air Resources Board, will require that 100 percent of all new cars sold in the state by 2035 be free of the fossil fuel emissions chiefly responsible for warming the planet, up from 12 percent today. It sets interim targets requiring that 35 percent of new passenger vehicles sold in the state by 2026 produce zero emissions. That would climb to 68 percent by 2030,” according to The New York Times.
For that to become a reality, we need EV charging stations – lots of them.
In fact, the Biden Administration already announced that all 50 U.S. states, Washington, D.C., and Puerto Rico have all submitted plans for a national EV charging network.

“These plans are required to unlock the first round of the $5 billion of Bipartisan Infrastructure Law formula funding available over 5 years to help states accelerate the important work of building out the national EV charging network and making electric vehicle charging accessible to all Americans,” according to the U.S. Department of Transportation.
ChargePoint Holdings Stock Technically Oversold
It’s all part of the reason why oversold shares of CHPT are starting to pivot higher. All after pulling back from about $19 to $14 thanks to a broad market pullback. Even better, the stock is oversold on Williams’ %R, Fast Stochastics, and RSI.
Source: MarketClub
Fundamentally, CHPT is just as solid. In its fourth quarter, the company posted a 17-cent loss, which was a penny shy of expectations. Sales were up to $80.7 million, which was far better than expectations for $75.9 million. It was also better than the company’s own guidance for $78 million for the quarter.

Better, “ChargePoint delivered another outstanding quarter…. advancing our technology leadership in our commercial, fleet and residential verticals,” said CEO Pasquale Romano in the company’s news release. “We had numerous successes in our first year as a publicly traded company, including a 65% year over year increase in annual revenue, two strategic acquisitions, expansion of our activated [charging] port count by over 60%.”
Again, with the EV boom only accelerating, oversold shares of CHPT could race higher.
CHPT last traded at $15.33 a share, and could potentially test $19 again, near-term.
Ian CooperINO.com Contributor
The above analysis of ChargePoint Holdings (CHPT) was provided by financial writer Ian Cooper. Ian Cooper is not a Registered Investment Advisor or Financial Planner. This writing is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation to buy, or a recommendation regarding any securities transaction. The information contained in this writing should not be construed as financial or investment advice on any subject matter. Ian Cooper expressly disclaims all liability in respect to actions taken based on any or all of the information on this writing.

Earlier this month, I updated on the crypto market with a title, ‘It Ain’t Over Yet”. I considered the recent strength in the main cryptocurrencies a “dead-cat bounce” within a classic sideways consolidation with a high probability of resuming collapse.
This time, I spotted new signals as the chart moves to the right building new bars over time. Let us start with the main coin in the weekly chart below.
Source: TradingView
The price of Bitcoin moves within large bearish trend channel (black). The top of above-mentioned sideways consolidation within red trendlines did not even approach the resistance, it stays intact.
The RSI indicator could not raise its head to test the “waterline” of 50 level. This means that the market has considered this short-term strength as a “dead-cat bounce” as well.

The chart bar of last week has punctured below the red support. This is a harbinger of another drop. The main coin indeed is looking into the abyss as the strong support appears only after the price halves down. The largest area of the Volume Profile histogram (orange) is located between $9k and $10k. The mid-channel (red dashed) fortifies that support with its intersection.
Your biggest bet last time was the drop of the Bitcoin down to $12.2k, where the second leg down is equal to the first one. It almost coincides with the above-mentioned double support.The next volume area is located at the $4k level and this option was your least favorite.
This time I added the simple moving average (purple) covering the preceding 52 weeks (1 year). It has been offering a strong support to the price starting from 2020. This year it has flipped to become a strong resistance after the price has dropped below it. The $40k level is the barrier to break to confirm the new bullish cycle.
A rather interesting situation has developed for the main coin. The price should either half down to find support or it should double up from this level to crack the bearish cycle.

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Now, let us check the Ethereum chart.
Source: TradingView
In spite of all the hype around the upcoming transition of Ethereum onto the proof-of-stake (PoS) mechanism, the shadow of falling Bitcoin remains a backbreaking burden.
The black downtrend remains intact for the second largest coin also. There is a visible difference with the Bitcoin chart. The red mid-channel intersects with the red trendline support that contours consolidation.

Although the RSI was stronger here as it approached the barrier, it failed to break up and then dropped. Thus, the bearish mode continues.
Indeed, there is no safety net once the price slides below the red trendline support and the mid-channel until it touches the Volume Profile (orange) support of $250. It accords with the total annihilation model posted in May. Most of you agreed with this doomed forecast earlier.
The simple moving average (purple) for the preceding year stands at $2,845. The price should almost double to touch this resistance. This is a similar situation with Bitcoin. However, the downside gap is worse for Ethereum.

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The forecasted collapse should show us for sure if the RSI will establish a new valley or not building the Bullish Divergence. HODL-ers will watch this event closely.
Intelligent trades!
Aibek BurabayevINO.com Contributor
Disclosure: This contributor has no positions in any stocks mentioned in this article. This article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. This contributor is not receiving compensation (other than from INO.com) for their opinion.

The stock market has witnessed significant volatility due to several macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds this year. With inflation remaining elevated and the possibility of the Fed raising interest rates aggressively, the market is expected to remain volatile.
Amid this uncertain environment, a good strategy could be buying stocks that have gained momentum recently and are well-positioned to maintain the same based on their strong fundamentals and growth prospects, irrespective of the market movements. Investors’ interest in momentum stocks is evident from the Invesco DWA Momentum ETF’s (PDP) 8.2% returns over the past month.
PBF Energy Inc. (PBF), Global Partners LP (GLP), and GeoPark Limited (GPRK) have shown no signs of slowing down and are currently trading at discounts to their peers.
Strong fundamentals should help these stocks maintain their momentum in the upcoming months. So, it could be wise to invest in these stocks.
PBF Energy Inc. (PBF)
PBF is a petroleum refiner and supplier of gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel, unbranded transportation fuels, heating oil, petrochemical feedstocks, lubricants, and other petroleum products. The company operates through two segments: Refining; and Logistics.
On July 28, 2022, PBF announced the acquisition of the remaining public stake in PBF Logistics LP. As of July 22, 2022, it owned approximately 47.7% of the outstanding common units of PBF Logistics.

Tom Nimbley, PBF Energy’s and PBF Logistics’ Chairman and CEO, said, “This transaction will ultimately allow us to simplify our corporate structure and eliminate administrative, compliance, and cost burdens of running a separate public company. Following consummation of the merger, we believe that the combined company will have a significantly enhanced financial profile.”
For the second quarter, which ended June 30, 2022, PBF’s revenues increased 104.1% year-over-year to $14.08 billion. Its income from operations rose 1,057% from its year-ago value to $1.71 billion.
The company’s adjusted net income increased 2,416% year-over-year to $1.21 billion, while its EPS grew 2,374.3% from the prior-year quarter to $9.65. Also, its adjusted EBITDA grew substantially from the year-ago value to $1.91 billion.
In terms of forward non-GAAP P/E, PBF is currently trading at 1.95x, 74.9% lower than the industry average of 7.76x. Its forward EV/S multiple of 0.16x is 91.9% lower than the industry average of 1.95x. In addition, the stock’s forward EV/EBITDA and EV/EBIT ratios came in at 1.85x and 2.21x, compared to the industry averages of 5.67x and 8.64x, respectively.
Analysts expect PBF’s revenues to increase 44.1% year-over-year to $10.36 billion in its fiscal third quarter (ending September 30, 2022). Its EPS is expected to increase significantly to $5.71 in the current quarter.
Shares of PBF have gained 194.9% year-to-date to close the last trading session at $38.25. PBF is currently trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages of $31.66 and $24.08, respectively, indicating an uptrend.
PBF’s POWR Ratings reflect this promising outlook. The company has an overall B rating, which translates to a Buy in this proprietary rating system.
It has an A grade for Growth, Value, and Momentum and a B for Quality. Within the B-rated Energy – Oil & Gas industry, it is ranked #7 of 97 stocks. Click here to learn more about POWR Ratings.
Global Partners LP (GLP)
GLP purchases, sell, gathers, blends, stores, and manages the logistics of transporting gasoline and gasoline blend stocks, distillates, residual oil, renewable fuels, crude oil, and propane to wholesalers, retailers, and commercial customers in the New England states, Mid-Atlantic region and New York.
On February 2, 2022, the company expanded its retail footprint in the Mid-Atlantic region by acquiring Miller’s Neighborhood market. Global Partners LP President and CEO Eric Slifka said, “Acquiring these high-quality locations enables us to further capitalize on our scale, supply relationships, and integrated model to enhance product margin along each step of the value chain.”
GLP’s sales increased 62.3% year-over-year to $5.32 billion for the second quarter ended June 30, 2022. Its gross profit grew 58.1% from the year-ago value to $281.48 million, while its operating income rose 466.2% year-over-year to $186.81 million. The company’s adjusted EBITDA increased 129.9% year-over-year to $134.91 million. Also, its net income and EPS increased 1,241.2% and 1,904.3% year-over-year to $162.81 million and $4.61.
In terms of forward P/S, GLP is currently trading at 0.05x, 96.5% lower than the industry average of 1.45x. Its forward EV/S multiple of 0.13x is 93.2% lower than the industry average of 1.95x. In addition, the stock’s forward EV/EBIT ratio of 6.89x compares to the industry average of 8.64x.
Analysts expect GLP’s EPS and revenue for the quarter ending September 30, 2022, to increase 54.6% and 23.8% year-over-year to $1.33 and $4.11 billion, respectively. It surpassed the consensus EPS estimates in three of the trailing four quarters. The stock has gained 18.5% year-to-date to close the last trading session at $27.84.
GLP is currently trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages of $25.50 and $25.76, respectively, indicating an uptrend.
GLP’s strong fundamentals are reflected in its POWR Ratings. It has an overall rating of A, which equates to a Strong Buy in this proprietary rating system.
It has an A grade for Value and Momentum and a B for Sentiment. Within the A-rated MLPs – Oil & Gas industry, it is ranked #2 out of 34 stocks. Click here to learn more about POWR Ratings.
GeoPark Limited (GPRK)
Headquartered in Bogotá, Colombia, GPRK explores, develops, and produces oil and gas reserves in five geographical segments: Chile, Colombia, Brazil, Argentina, and Ecuador. As of December 31, 2021, the company had working or economic interests in 42 hydrocarbon blocks.
On August 10, 2022, the company’s Board of Directors increased its quarterly cash dividend for the third time in a year to $0.127 per share from $0.082 per share. This reflects the company’s strong cash flows.
In the second quarter ending June 30, 2022, GPRK’s revenue increased 88% year-over-year to $311.20 million. Its operating profit grew 646.9% from its year-ago value to $143.40 million, while its net profit came in at $67.90 million compared to a loss of $2.50 million in the year-ago period.
In terms of forward non-GAAP P/E, GPRK is currently trading at 2.89x, 62.7% lower than the industry average of 7.76x. Its forward EV/S multiple of 1.16x is 40.3% lower than the industry average of 1.95x. In addition, the stock’s forward EV/EBITDA and EV/EBIT ratios of 2.31x and 3.01x compare to the industry averages of 5.67x and 8.64x, respectively.

The consensus EPS estimate of $4.54 for fiscal 2022 represents a 330.2% year-over-year growth. Analysts expect its revenue to increase 48.3% year-over-year to $258 million for the third quarter ending September 30, 2022. It surpassed the consensus EPS estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, which is excellent.
The shares of GPRK have gained 14.8% year-to-date to close the last trading session at $13.15. GPRK is trading above its 50-day moving average of $12.46.
GPRK’s POWR Ratings reflect solid prospects. The stock has an overall B rating, equating to a Buy in this proprietary rating system.
It has an A grade for Value and Momentum and a B for Quality. It is ranked #9 out of 43 stocks in the A-rated Foreign Oil & Gas industry. Click here to learn more about POWR Ratings.

About the Author
Shweta Kumari’s profound interest in financial research and quantitative analysis led her to pursue a career as an investment analyst. She uses her knowledge to help retail investors make educated investment decisions. Shweta graduated with a bachelor’s degree in accounting and finance and is currently pursuing the Chartered Accountancy course. Shweta is a regular contributor for StockNews.com.

Last Monday, August 15 gold opened at approximately $1816 per ounce and scored strong price declines over the last five consecutive days, characterized by four lower highs, and four lower lows taking the most active December contract of gold futures to $1760 with under a half hour of trading before closing for the weekend.
In a single week, gold lost $56 in value. Gold sustained a price decline of approximately 3.083% over the last five trading days.

This is significant but certainly not extremely rare. Historically speaking we can easily identify weeks in which gold had a significant drawdown greater than this week’s price decline. Only five weeks ago, during the week of July 4 gold sustained a weekly drawdown of $71. This represents a weekly price decline of 3.861%.

On the other hand, the gains last week in the dollar index are rare and I believe extremely significant.

In terms of percentage advance, gold did experience a larger percentage drop than the dollar gained. The weekly advance for the dollar index is 2.217%.
However, to identify the last instance the dollar declined this deep in a single week occurred during the week of March 16, 2020, well over two years ago. In a single week, the dollar index opened at 98.46 and closed at 103.48, a strong price advance of 502 points which is a weekly gain of 4.851% more than double last week’s gain.
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Gold prices are based on two primary underlying factors. The first is dollar strength or weakness, and the second is traders bidding the precious metal higher or lower.
Simple math tells us that gold’s decline of 3.86% compared to a 2.21% gain in the dollar index is the net result of 1.65% of this week’s decline attributable to market participants actively selling gold with the remaining 2.21% directly attributable to dollar strength.
It is an accepted fact that both gold and the dollar are in direct competition as a haven asset in times of economic uncertainty. When economic uncertainty is coupled with the certainty that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise rates it places the dollar in a stronger position as higher U.S. Treasury yields directly support the dollar.
Add to the fact that gold does not yield any interest the scales are certainly tipped to favor the dollar for as long as monetary tightening is the guiding principle of the Federal Reserve as it tries to reduce the level of inflation.

At least for last week, it is obvious that market participants are laser-focused on further interest rate hikes rather than on the current level of inflation.
Market participants have shifted their focus between concern about rising rates over concern about inflationary levels on more occasions than I can count. This tug-of-war will most certainly continue until it is perceived that the Federal Reserve has completed its monetary tightening and interest rate hikes.
For those who would like more information simply use this link.
Wishing you, as always good trading,Gary S. WagnerThe Gold Forecast

More than three years ago in my post titled, “Don’t Get Trapped By Recent Dollar Weakness”, I shared with you a monthly chart of the dollar index (DX) futures with a map of large two-leg complex sideways consolidation. It was an experiment to try guessing the time target for the second blue leg to the upside based on the time it took second red leg to emerge.
Below is the updated chart with the same drawings enriched with the new highlights.
Source: TradingView
The time target was set on November 2020 when 33 bars in the second blue leg up emerge. The price had established the new top of $104 in March 2020 within those 33 bars. However, the minimum target of $114.2 on the price scale had not been reached and now 54 monthly bars appear on the chart.

If we divide 54 by 33 we will have the ratio of 1.64, which means the time period extended over the 1.618 Fibonacci ratio. This is a crucial time mark and last month the dollar index futures were really close to hitting the price target as it topped $109.1.
The next extension of doubling the time period with 66 bars to emerge falls on August 2023. It is enough time space for reaching both preset targets of $114.2 and $121.3.
I added two indicators on this updated chart. The purple one is the Volume Profile. It clearly has shown the strong barrier at the $98 level with the large volume traded there. When the price broke above that resistance, the speed of growth accelerated. It is the resistance being the strong support now. We should watch it closely in case the price drops there during correction.
The Simple Moving Average for the past year period is the blue line on the chart. It had accurately shown the reversal to the upside last year. The moving average confirms the support area of the Volume Profile indicator around $99.6 making it a double barrier for bears.
Three years ago the majority of readers misread the direction of the price as they bet on the drop of the dollar.

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In the next chart, I could get a better visualization of the real interest rate comparison between countries and areas involved in the composition of the dollar index posted in June.
Source: TradingView
Now this chart above shows the real interest rate differential on the scale B: blue line for U.S. – Eurozone, orange line for U.S. – U.K. and the red line for U.S. – Japan.
I highlighted with the purple rectangle the area where the dollar index (black bold line) bottomed last year. It coincides with the valley of U.S. – Eurozone (the largest component of the DX) and the U.S. – U.K. (3rd largest component of DX) differentials around minus 3.3%. The following rapid growth of the dollar index was clearly supported by the rising gap of the real interest rates, which has scored over 5% change from the bottom.

Most of you were absolutely right voting for the ongoing superiority of the U.S. real interest rate over Eurozone and U.K.
The gap with Japan (2nd largest component of DX) has bottomed much later only this spring. Anyway, it has added to the narrowing from minus 6.7% to the current minus 3.3%.
We can see that the dollar index still has ammo to continue moving higher. The room over 2% is a huge buffer for the dollar’s domination.
Intelligent trades!
Aibek BurabayevINO.com Contributor
Disclosure: This contributor has no positions in any stocks mentioned in this article. This article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. This contributor is not receiving compensation (other than from INO.com) for their opinion.

A recent survey from Vanguard showed the median account balance for Americans 65 and older was just $87,700. The median amount saved by Americans aged 55 to 64 was just $89,700. The average for both age groups was much higher at $256 thousand for 55 to 64-year-olds and $280 thousand for those 65 and older.
However, these numbers are very concerning, considering these individuals are either in retirement or near retirement age and don’t have enough saved up to retire.
The reality is that while the amount of money those in their 50s, 60s, and older have saved for retirement is not likely enough to give them the retirement that many of us dream about, there is not much we can do to help them at this point.
Many of the greatest investors of our time have all used the power of compounding returns to grow their vast fortunes. Warren Buffet, one of the wealthiest individuals in the world, while an outstanding investor in his own right, acquired the vast majority of his wealth late in life because of the power of compounding returns, not extraordinary investment picks.

Unfortunately, those in their 50s or older just don’t have as much time on their side as is required to realize the power of compounding investment returns.
While the younger generations have more time and opportunities to grow their investment wealth, the issue is that many young people don’t understand the importance of investing when young. A recent report from Morning Consult showed that half of Americans aged 18 to 34 were not yet saving for retirement, and only 39% of those who were, started in their 20s.
We often hear the same old lines from those who now wish they had saved or even just started investing earlier in life. “I was never told/taught about investing.” “No one explained why investing young was crucial to growing a large investment account.” “I just didn’t have enough money to save when I was young/younger.” There are obviously more excuses, but in my experience, these are the top three.
If you are reading this article, you care about your investments. Therefore, you either had someone explain to you the importance of investing, or you taught yourself after realizing why investing was so important.
Regardless, the most crucial step when it comes to saving for retirement isn’t where you put your money or even how much you invest; it’s having a conversation with someone about saving and investing for retirement.
The earlier in life that someone is taught about retirement savings and why it is so important to save even a tiny amount at an early age, the better off they will be when they retire.
For example; if you invested just $4,500 per year for 45 years, you would have over $1 million, and if that 20-year-old had an employee who did a 401k match, they might only have to save $2,250 per year (employer matching the other $2,500) and still end up with the $1million.
Another way to think about compounding returns is this. If you contribute $1 at the age of 20 and get a 4% return rate, that $1 would be worth $5.84 when you turn 65. (figures are based on zero inflation and illustrate the power of compounding returns, not purchasing power over time.) If you contribute $1 at the age of 30, it will be worth just $3,95 when you turn 65. $1 at the age of 40 will be worth just $2.67 at 65. $1 invested at age 50 will only grow to be worth $1.80 by turning 65.

When investing, time is your friend if you are young and your enemy if you are older. So be a friend to someone else and make the biggest impact on their life as early as you can, by simply talking to them about investing and explaining the importance of starting early. So the sooner someone starts, the more they will need to invest in getting to $1 million.
If you need suggestions about what they should buy, keep it simple, recommend the iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV), the Vanguard Russell 2000 ETF (VTWO), or the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI). These are basic, straightforward investments that will allow anyone to benefit from the stock market’s compounding returns.
Matt ThalmanINO.com ContributorFollow me on Twitter @mthalman5513
Disclosure: This contributor did not hold a position in any investment mentioned above at the time this blog post was published. This article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. This contributor is not receiving compensation (other than from INO.com) for their opinion.

Please enjoy this updated version of weekly commentary from the Reitmeister Total Return newsletter. Steve Reitmeister is the CEO of StockNews.com and Editor of the Reitmeister Total Return.
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The recent rally in stocks (SPY) has been impressive. But it is still officially a bear market and there are 5 reasons that bears will not be waving a white flag soon. Lets review why stocks rallied… why they are likely to stall at this level… and the 5 reasons why the bearish argument will likely win the day.
Stocks have been rising nearly unabated for 2 months. A lot of that was because it was easy for stocks to “climb the wall of worry” created by the initial decline into bear market territory.
Meaning that it was fairly easy to find just enough silver linings or things not going as bad as advertised for stocks to bounce from that recent bottom. However, as we are finding out now… all good things must end.
Meaning that investors finally found resistance at the 200 day moving average of the S&P 500 (SPY) at 4,326 and retreated quickly from that mark into the finish line on Tuesday. Expect this level to denote the near term highs for the market as we likely enter a consolidation period with trading range to follow.
Why? And what is the parameters of this trading range? And what will cause us to break out of the range?
Market Commentary
Technically speaking… we are still in a bear market. That certainly is confusing to many investors given several weeks of upward price action. So let me spell it out for y’all.
The definition of a bull market is when you come out of a bear market and have risen 20% from the bottom. Well the recent bottom for the S&P 500 (SPY) is 3,636.87 and yet yesterday we closed at 4,305.20 which is 18.38% above the lows.

It may sound like mincing words to keep calling it a bear market as its pretty close to 20% above the lows. However, I think its an important distinction at this moment to help set up a true battle for the soul of this stock market.
The bulls have indeed grabbed the upper hand over the last 2 months. But a lot of that was just “climbing the wall of worry” as the market does quite often. That being where sentiment is so bad that it only takes things coming in a notch worse than horrific to spark a rally. And once the rally is under way you get the FOMO part where folks are afraid of missing out on the upside potential.
It is one thing to say things are not truly that bad versus saying they are good enough to promote the full re-emergence of the bull market. That is why the 200 day moving at 4,326, also known as the long term trend line, provides a very interesting battle ground for investors.
Check out the intraday chart from Tuesday below to see how stocks flirted with the 200 day moving average and then quickly reversed course

It is my strong belief that there is not enough serious bullish sentiment to create a break above the 200 day moving average at this time. On the other hand, the bears have more to prove to make their case. This creates the perfect environment for a consolidation period and trading range.
Yes, the relationship between high inflation and recessions/bear markets to follow is very strong as can be seen in the chart below:

However, until this starts showing up in a weakening of the employment market and/or earnings session for corporate America… then it is hard to make a serious case to push much lower. And thus the tug of war between bulls and bears should commence now.
Top of the range should be the 200 day moving average at 4,326 and the bottom of the range is likely the 100 day moving average at 4,100.
Reity, why do you continue to stubbornly call for a bear market when clearly other investors have spoken given the strength of the recent rally?
Because I have an economics background. And high inflation goes together with recessions and bear markets like peanut butter and jelly. It’s really just a matter of time as the chart above shows. So it may not have happened yet, but the problem still looms large.
Second, we have an inverted yield curve which is one of the most time tested indicators of a looming recession and bear market. Why? Because bond investors are saying that they see a recession coming in the long term that is by its very nature deflationary. So rates will be lower in the future than they are now.
Third, the Fed is feeling a bit too good about the economy which they take as a green light to raise rates like crazy in coming months. Bond investors have already weighed on this notion with the inverted yield curve which means they think the Fed will help generate a recession. Stock investors are likely to get the memo again once they see the damage appear in employment and/or corporate earnings.
Fourth, the weekly jobless claims reports is the leading indicator of what will happen with monthly job gains. That has been going the wrong direction since mid March. Note that it is generally understood that once jobless claims gets above 300,000 per week is when the unemployment rate starts to weaken. That wake up call may not be that far in the future.

Fifth, that this feels like the long term bear market of 2000 to 2003 that started with the popping of a valuation bubble and later had to deal with a recession. That is why you will see in the chart below that it took about 3 years of drops, followed by seemingly impressive bounces and then more drops to finally find true and lasting lows in March 2003 before a healthy new bull market could emerge.

Will this bear truly last 3 years?
Maybe. Maybe not. But I am simply saying the battle is not over which is why I think stocks will stall out at these levels awaiting some clear catalyst for a convincing breakout in a bullish or bearish direction.

My money is clearly on it breaking bearish for the reasons stated. But indeed, I am open for the bullish premise to win the day. That is why our hedged strategy is the right one for the time being. That being equal allocations to inverse ETFs and long stock positions.
As stated in Monday’s trade alert:

“If we do break above the 200 moving average with gusto and there is more reason to be bullish, then we will start to sell our inverse ETFs and start adding more stocks.
On the other side, if my thesis is correct that this is a long term bear market and we start to retreat, then we will do the opposite. Which is to sell off the stocks and perhaps add more inverse ETFs. Proof of that would likely be falling back under 4,000.
Simply you can think of a hedge as the start of a tug of war with both sides equally matched. Whichever side starts pulling ahead…then we jump on the bandwagon to join the winning team.”

I think that last paragraph pretty much says it all and will leave it there for now.
Click Here to learn more about Reitmeister Total Return
Wishing you a world of investment success!
Steve Reitmeister… but everyone calls me Reity (pronounced “Righty”)CEO, StockNews.com & Editor, Reitmeister Total Return

About the Author
Steve is better known to the StockNews audience as “Reity”. Not only is he the CEO of the firm, but he also shares his 40 years of investment experience in the Reitmeister Total Return portfolio. Learn more about Reity’s background, along with links to his most recent articles and stock picks.

It’s been a roller coaster ride of a year for investors, with the S&P-500 (SPY) finding itself down more than 20% year-to-date in one of its worst starts ever before clawing back following a slight deceleration in CPI sequentially (8.5% vs. 9.1%).
One of the hardest hit groups this year has been the Retail Sector (XRT), with a considerable portion of the sector suffering when consumers adjust their spending habits.
While this has led to some investors steering clear of the sector, some names tilt more towards staples than their peers, like Walmart (WMT), and some discretionary names have seen large enough corrections that a harder-than-expected landing for the economy looks mostly priced in.
One stock that fits the second bill is American Eagle Outfitters (AEO), which is down over 65% from last year’s highs even after its recent rally.

While I wouldn’t be in a rush to buy either name with the market short-term extended, I believe they belong at the top of one’s watchlist if they pull back towards support. Let’s take a look below:
Walmart (WMT)
Walmart released its fiscal Q2 2023 results this week, trouncing estimates with revenue of $152.9BB, up 8% year-over-year after a much stronger second half of Q2 than planned.
While this didn’t lead to any improvement in quarterly earnings per share, which dipped 1% year-over-year ($1.77 vs. $1.78), this was partially due to markdowns taken to reduce inventory levels in areas where it had risks like apparel.
Given the better-than-expected Q2 results, the company is now more upbeat about its fiscal Q3 performance, especially as it enters the period with cleaner inventory and as some consumers look to trade down, hit by rising fuel costs and mortgage rates.
Walmart’s positioning as a beneficiary of trading down is a big deal, but it won’t be immune to a weak economic environment. However, it could see migration from premium retailers to lessen the blow.
It also continues to see solid growth in its Walmart+ memberships, providing some insulation as less affluent customers curtail spending in some of its discretionary segments.
This tailwind from growth in Walmart+ and its heavy staples weighting makes WMT a name to own.
(Source: FASTGraphs.com)
Looking at the chart above, we can see that WMT has historically traded at 20.1x earnings (10-year average), and the stock is currently trading at ~21.7x earnings at a share price of $141.00.
This is a premium to its historical multiple, but it was during a period when Walmart struggled to grow annual EPS (2023 estimates: $5.70 vs. $5.02 in FY2023.
However, looking ahead, WMT is expected to see an acceleration in its growth rate, with annual EPS estimates sitting at $6.50 in FY2024 and $7.16 in FY2025, with its earnings growth rate expected to come in at 14% in FY2024 and 10% in FY2025.
This should command a higher earnings multiple of 26, translating to a fair value of $169.00, pointing to a 20% upside from current levels.
While this might not seem like much upside, Walmart has a much lower beta than the market and an attractive dividend yield of 1.70%, making it a nice defensive play for investors looking to maintain exposure to the market but with lower risk.
That said, I prefer a minimum 25% upside to fair value to justify starting new positions.
So, while I think WMT is a name to own in Q3 and Q4 in a weaker economic environment, I see the low-risk buy zone for the stock coming in at $135.00 or lower, suggesting the better move is to buy on dips vs. rush in above $141.00.
This would coincide with a pullback to its rising 25-week moving average (pink line), which will likely provide support during any pullbacks now that it’s been reclaimed.
(Source: TC2000.com)
American Eagle Outfitters (AEO)
Unlike Walmart, which just came off a surprisingly strong report, American Eagle’s Q1 2022 report in May was a stinker. This was partially due to difficult year-over-year comps after lapping government stimulus and a wardrobe refresh in Q1, but it was also self-inflicted.
The issue was that the company came into the year with a more bullish outlook than it should have been, not considering the possibility of weaker demand in a more difficult economic environment.
Due to this misfire, the company exited the quarter with much higher inventory than planned (also impacted by a colder Q1 that hurt swimwear sales). It will now have to shed some of its inventory, resulting in weaker than expected margins as it ensures it has a fresh fall line-up.
That said, its Aerie business had another strong quarter, up 8% vs. difficult comps in Q1, and this segment is now sporting a 27% three-year revenue CAGR, easily offsetting the softness in the American Eagle segment.
However, as the earnings trend shows below, we’re expected to see a plunge in annual earnings per share [EPS] related to clearing through spring goods, higher freight costs, and higher store wages.
So, even if American Eagle meets current annual EPS estimates, it will see annual EPS tumble to $1.16, down from $2.19 in FY2021, a 47% decline year-over-year.
(Source: FASTGraphs.com)
While this is a terrible-looking earnings trend, it is worth noting that annual EPS should rebound in FY2023 and FY2024 as freight costs should moderate, and American Eagle should see some benefit from its Quiet Logistics acquisition.
So, while an ugly Q2 report is on deck and the company is up against clear headwinds from a weaker consumer, there is a light at the end of the tunnel with earnings set to rebound sharply.
Besides, while the short-term outlook isn’t as pretty, the stock is now priced at its most attractive levels in years.
(Source: FASTGraphs.com)
American Eagle has historically traded at 15.0x earnings (15-year average) and is currently sitting at just 9.0x forward earnings at a share price of $13.20 (FY2023 estimates: $1.46).

This is a dirt-cheap valuation for the stock. Even if we assume a more conservative multiple in a recessionary environment that doesn’t favor consumer discretionary names, I see a fair value for the stock of $17.52 per share (12x FY2023 estimates).
So, with a 33% upside to fair value, I would expect any pullbacks to provide buying opportunities.
(Source: TC2000.com)
Looking at the weekly chart, we see that AEO remains in a downtrend but is just above a multi-year support zone at $11.00 per share.
This reinforces my view that the negativity is priced in and that we’re sitting near a lower-risk buy point. Hence, any retracements below $12.60 should provide buying opportunities.
American Eagle and Walmart may not be the most exciting ideas and certainly don’t have nearly the growth rates of high-flying stocks like Celcius Holdings (CELH). Still, both stocks offer attractive dividend yields (5.2% and 1.7%, respectively) and look to have found bottoms after multi-month downtrends.
So, for investors looking to add long exposure at reasonable valuations, I see WMT and AEO as attractive, with buy zones of $135.00 and $12.60, respectively.
Taylor DartINO.com Contributor
Disclaimer: This article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. Taylor Dart is not a Registered Investment Advisor or Financial Planner. This writing is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation to buy, or a recommendation regarding any securities transaction. The information contained in this writing should not be construed as financial or investment advice on any subject matter. Taylor Dart expressly disclaims all liability in respect to actions taken based on any or all of the information in this writing.

Every month, I release a new video for MarketClub members…
I cover everything from current market conditions and trading lessons learned (good and bad), to stocks on my watch list, questions I receive from members, and more.
Here is a sneak peak of my August Bonus Training Video.
Today’s theme is Bear Market ’22… shocker right?! Well, this one is a good one and I’m going to cover a lot so let’s jump in!
The good news is, we’re in a solid bear market rally and just flashed a monthly Trade Triangle in the big 3! I’ll look back at past bear market rallies and show you how the Trade Triangles have been an excellent indicator of changes and traps in the past (including getting you out before a 20% pullback in the most recent bear market). I’ll show you what I’m looking at and what to be cautious of.
Now full disclosure, even though we’ve seen these new Triangles issued, my gut tells me we haven’t seen the end of this bear market. But guess what? THE MARKET DOESNT CARE WHAT I THINK, so I trade what the market and signals tell me.
So, today we’ll do something we haven’t done in a while, look through some charts and scan for some trades! After all, the market is going up and as we’ve seen already the signals rarely, if ever, let us down!
I’ll break down the Top Options list into 13 potential stocks to watch for options trades!
I’ll ALSO cover how to survive market corrections, the journey to a million dollars, the 3 skill sets to build wealth, and more.

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Over the past few years, retail investors have shown they have the power (money) to take stock prices to ‘the moon’ if they operate as a group.
Last year it was GameStop (GME) and AMC (AMC).
Just a few weeks ago, it was AMTD Digital Inc (HKD), which was IPO’d in July and has had a trading range of $13.52 per share up to $2,555.30 per share since the initial public offer. HKD is currently trading in the low $200 range.

But just because retail investors can do something, does that mean they should? Are the retail crowd good stock pickers? And should you follow their lead?
At this time, we don’t know the answer to these questions. That is because we don’t have enough data on whether or not retail investors operating as a whole are good stock pickers. They have only really been flexing their muscle for a little more than a year.
Plus, when they started with GME and AMC, we were still in a bull market. But now, we are in a bear market. So it would be unfair to say the retail investor’s recent performance shows their lack of sophistication and that they don’t belong picking stocks.
A few Exchange Traded Funds track what retail investors are talking about on social media or buying in their brokerage accounts, and as of late, retail investor stock picks are not outperforming the market.
The VanEck Social Sentiment ETF (BUZZ), which tracks the top 75 companies with the most popular sentiment online based on a proprietary AI model to select stocks, is down 32% year-to-date.
The SoFi Social 50 ETF (SFYF), which tracks the 50 most widely held stocks in self-directed brokerage accounts of Sofi Securities, is down 25.55% year-to-date.
And the FOMO ETF (FOMO), which invests in the areas of the market that are currently in favor with retail and individual investors or currently ‘trending,’ is down 17.94% year-to-date.
For comparison, a few ETFs that are either managed by professional stock pickers or track the performance of hedge funds are also having a tough year.
The Motley Fool 100 Index ETF (TMFC), which invests in the top 100 stocks selected by Motley Fool analysts, is down 17.64% year-to-date.
The Global X Guru Index ETF (GURU), the Goldman Sachs Hedge Industry VIP ETF (GVIP), and the AlphaClone Alternative Alpha ETF (ALFA), all of which track and mimic the holdings of hedge funds; have produced negative year-to-date returns of 23.22%, 22.90%, and 21.66% respectively.
The performance of these professionally run ETFs shows that even the pros, who are getting paid millions to manage other people’s money, are, as a whole, performing just as poorly as the retail investors.
The S&P 500 is what many consider the ‘market,’ and the QQQ comprises the top 100 technology stocks on the NASDAQ.
However, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is down 12.09% year-to-date, while the Invesco QQQ ETF (QQQ) is down 18.59%. So these are great examples of alternative ETF investments investors could buy as opposed to BUZZ, SFYF, or FOMO.
Furthermore, based on the QQQ’s performance, there is an argument that it’s not that retail investors are poor at picking stocks but that technology stocks, which represent a large portion of the retail investor-focused ETFs, are having an overwhelmingly lousy year.

The performance of the S&P 500 in 2022 highlights the old argument that stock picking is not worth the time or energy professionals or retail investors dedicate to it.
But again, we are only eight months into the year, which is a tiny snapshot of time for long-term investors. And much of which has been during a bear market.
Historical data (Warren Buffett, Peter Lynch, Carl Icahn, Bill Miller) has shown that some investors can beat the market, and maybe the next great generational investor will come from the retail side, not Wall Street.
Regardless, investors interested in what other retail investors are buying and discussing on message boards may find BUZZ, SFYF, or FOMO attractive since they take the work out of tracking what other investors like and dislike.
My only suggestion would be to make one of these ETFs a small percentage of your total portfolio. The bulk of your portfolio should be in one of the S&P 500, NASDAQ, or other major index-focused ETFs.
Matt ThalmanINO.com ContributorFollow me on Twitter @mthalman5513
Disclosure: This contributor did not hold a position in any investment mentioned above at the time this blog post was published. This article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. This contributor is not receiving compensation (other than from INO.com) for their opinion.