×

It’s not goodbye, it’s hello Magnifi!

You are now leaving a Magnifi Communities’ website and are going to a website that is not operated by Magnifi Communities. This website is operated by Magnifi LLC, an SEC registered investment adviser affiliated with Magnifi Communities.

Magnifi Communities does not endorse this website, its sponsor, or any of the policies, activities, products, or services offered on the site. We are not responsible for the content or availability of linked site.

Take Me To Magnifi

INO.com

pexels-photo-164527.jpeg

CDs Are Back In Style

For the past 20 years or so, old-fashioned saving has gone out of style. Back in the 1980s and 1990s, you could build a fairly respectable—and guaranteed—return on your retirement portfolio by buying bank certificates of deposit.
Since then, of course, we’ve encountered one seemingly endless economic crisis after another—the dot com bust, the 2001 terrorist attacks, the 2008 global financial crisis, and the 2020 Covid-19 pandemic—that have basically forced the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to or near zero percent.
That policy, of course, largely destroyed the CD (certificate of deposit) market and forced savers, however reluctantly, to buy stocks instead, because There (Was) Is No Alternative, or TINA.

If you wanted to earn any kind of return on your portfolio, you really had no choice but to buy stocks, either directly or through mutual funds and ETFs.
And that strategy has paid off pretty nicely for most people over the past two decades, provided they could stomach the roller coaster ride that the stock market has put them through over that time.
Until now.
Now the Fed has suddenly re-discovered monetary restraint in the form of higher interest rates to slay the inflationary beast it helped to create.
Since the end of last year, when the Fed finally came around to the notion that inflation wasn’t transitory and signaled that the party was over, stocks and bonds have tanked. If your retirement portfolio is only down 15% or so since then, consider yourself lucky.
But there is a positive flipside to the Fed’s new hawkish interest rate policy, and that is that it is now fashionable—and financially savvy—again to start shopping in the CD market. (If you’re in the market to buy a house, however, with mortgage rates now at 7% and rising, I’m afraid you missed the boat.)
Instead of following the stock market’s gyrations, mostly southward, here’s something that might cheer you up a little. Visit the brokered CD page on Schwab or Fidelity or wherever your account is and take a look at the rates being offered. I think you’ll be both surprised and pleased. You’ll want to party like it’s 1999.
Here’s a sampling of the highest CD rates available at Schwab at the beginning of this week:

One month: 3.3%
Three months: 3.7%
Six months: 4.2%
One year: 4.5%
Three years: 4.7%
Five years: 4.75%

Yes, you read that right. You can earn more than 4% by locking up your money for only six months.
Not many companies are paying a reliable 4% dividend on their stocks, and none that I know of where the payment is insured and the price of the underlying stock is guaranteed not to fall. CDs, however, are guaranteed by the full faith and credit of Uncle Sam.
Now, you probably can’t get those same high rates at your bank — hey still think the fed funds rate is at zero, not 3.25%. You can usually only get these rates at a brokerage firm. But that’s hardly an inconvenience — quite the contrary. A couple of clicks and you’re done.
Of course, there are some drawbacks to investing in CDs. If you need your money before the CD matures, you may have to pay an early withdrawal penalty, usually the forfeiture of some of the interest you would have earned—although not the principal. Each bank has its own rules on penalties. But you can also sell your CD on the secondary market through the brokerage you bought it from, just like a bond.
There is another risk, albeit a small one. The Fed has made it pretty clear that it has no intention of stopping interest rate hikes over the foreseeable future, which means rates on CDs are likely to go up from here. So it may pay to wait if you want to lock up your money longer at a higher rate.

Then again, you can park your money in a one- or three-month CD and check back later, like early next year, when a five-year CD may be earning more than 5%.
Of course, by then it may also be safe again to jump back into the stock market. But maybe not. In the meantime, you’ll be earning a decent—and guaranteed—return on your money.
So if you’ve had it with the market’s gyrations and want to sleep better at night, the CD market is once again a good place to live. Remember, investing is supposed to be boring.
George YacikINO.com Contributor
Disclosure: This article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. This contributor is not receiving compensation (other than from INO.com) for their opinion.

CDs Are Back In Style Read More »

Silver And Palladium Update: False Hope

The price action in the silver futures has given a false hope to bulls this month.
The largest volume support (orange) has offered a solid support for the silver futures price lately. It is located between $17.4 and $18.2. The price has tested it three times already and failed to break it down.
Source: TradingView
The RSI has built a Bullish Divergence during the second touchdown at the end of the summer. The reaction was an imminent reversal to the upside. It was promising price action for the bulls as the futures price soared from $17.4 up to $21.3 by the start of this month to book the gain of almost four bucks (22% growth).

Afterwards, the same indicator has failed to break above the 50 barrier in spite of a strong impulse and so did the price rally. It stopped more than half dollar below the moving average (purple).
The price dropped back to the largest volume support after above mentioned failure but bounced then. It has managed to score more than one dollar from the latest valley of $18. This puts the silver futures between the hammer ($21.9, moving average resistance) and the anvil ($18, volume support).
The chart structure of the recent rally looks corrective. This means that the weakness of the price should resume. The next support is located at the following volume area of $15.8.
There are no other significant levels to catch the “falling knife” of silver except the “Flash-Crash” valley in $11.6. The drop to the latter could build a larger corrective structure visible on a bigger map.
The invalidation of the bearish outlook would come with the breakup of the moving average above $21.9.
Last time, your most popular answer was that silver futures would stop at $16. The next bid was bullish. None of the bets have played out as yet.

 Loading …
Last time I updated the palladium chart in January, I highlighted two scenarios for you as the technical outlook (blue) was in contradiction with the fundamental outlook (red). I put the old chart below to refresh your memory.
Source: TradingView
The blue scenario is about to be eliminated as the disastrous pattern I spotted for you below could reverse the technical outlook down to match with a red bearish path.
Source: TradingView
The shallow advance of the price has failed to overcome the double resistance of the volume barrier and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level around $2,400 at the beginning of the month.

Overall, the move to the upside from June to October resembles the sideways consolidation after a huge drop from the all-time high of $3,425. These elements have jointly built a well-known Bear Flag pattern (purple). The price is sitting right on the flag’s support. Watch the breakdown of it for a confirmation of the pattern.
The flag’s target aims at $320. To find this target, I subtracted the height of the flag pole from the flag’s support. It means a huge collapse of the price as it should lose more than 80% of its current value. Ouch!
There is the largest volume support area between $1,560 and $1,300 to be broken first. The next support is located at $815 in the valley of Y2018.
The majority of readers (65% vs. 35%) chose the bullish outlook for palladium last time.

 Loading …
Intelligent trades!
Aibek BurabayevINO.com Contributor
Disclosure: This contributor has no positions in any stocks mentioned in this article. This article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. This contributor is not receiving compensation (other than from INO.com) for their opinion.

Silver And Palladium Update: False Hope Read More »

One Penny Stock Posting Extraordinary Gains

The Fed’s persistent hawkish stance to tame the stubborn inflation and the consequent increase in recession fears have led the widely-followed stock indices to witness massive sell-offs this year.
While most well-known names in the market got caught in the brutal sell-off, penny stock Pulse Biosciences (PLSE) witnessed a solid uptrend, gaining 54.3% over the past month and 11.9% over the past three months.
Source: MarketClub
PLSE operates as a novel bioelectric medicine company. It provides CellFX System, a tunable, software-enabled, and console-based platform used to treat various medical conditions using its Nano Pulse Stimulation technology.

The medical therapy company delivered impressive results for the second quarter that ended June 30, 2022. During the quarter, the company transitioned its commercial focus toward utilizing CellFX Systems in a select group of dermatology clinics. In addition, the company completed two commercial sales of CellFX Systems.
Furthermore, PLSE is expanding strategic opportunities within healthcare and anticipates a concentrated focus on the oncology, gastroenterology, and cardiac sectors.
PLSE is trading above its 50-day moving average of $1.73, indicating an uptrend. While the company is yet to turn profitable, Wall Street expects its loss to decline in the upcoming quarters, which could help the stock grab some more investor attention and maintain its momentum.
In terms of its forward EV/Sales, PLSE is trading at 73.74x compared to the industry average of 3.81x. The stock’s forward Price/Sales of 72.31x compares to the industry average of 4.25x.

 Loading …
Here is what could influence PLSE’s performance in the upcoming months:
Recent Positive Developments
On October 6, PLSE announced positive clinical data from an FDA-approved Investigational Device Exempt treatment and study on the use of Nano-Pulse Stimulation (NPS) procedure for low-risk basal cell carcinoma (BCC) lesions.Here is what Kevin Danahy, President and Chief Executive Officer of Pulse Biosciences, said:

In September, PLSE received FDA 510(k) clearance for its CellFX System to treat sebaceous hyperplasia in patients with Fitzpatrick skin types I-III. The FDA clearance enables the company to support clinics in marketing and promoting CellFX treatments, specifically for patients with sebaceous hyperplasia.
Impressive Recent Financials
In the fiscal second quarter (ended June 2022), PLSE’s revenues totaled $265,000, including System revenue of $209,000 and Cycle Units revenue of $56,000.
The company’s non-GAAP operating expenses declined 21% year-over-year. Its non-GAAP net loss narrowed to $11.9 million from $12.6 million in the year-ago quarter.
Favorable Analyst Estimates
Analysts expect PLSE’s revenue for the fiscal 2023 first quarter (ending March 31) to come in at $800,000, indicating an increase of 80.2% from the prior-year period. The consensus revenue estimate of $3.89 million for fiscal 2023 indicates a 250.7% year-over-year improvement. Also, Wall Street expects the company’s loss to narrow by 6.3% for the quarter that ended September 2022 and 22.8% for the full year.
Technical Indicators Show Promise
According to MarketClub’s Trade Triangles, the long-term trend for PLSE has been UP since October 3, 2022, and its intermediate-term trend has been UP since September 12, 2022. However, the stock’s short-term trend has been DOWN since October 19, 2022.
The Trade Triangles are our proprietary indicators, comprised of weighted factors that include (but are not necessarily limited to) price change, percentage change, moving averages, and new highs/lows. The Trade Triangles point in the direction of short-term, intermediate, and long-term trends, looking for periods of alignment and, therefore, intense swings in price.

In terms of the Chart Analysis Score, another MarketClub proprietary tool, PLSE scored +75 on a scale from -100 (strong downtrend) to +100 (strong uptrend), indicating Bull Market Weakness. While PLSE shows signs of short-term weakness, it remains in the confines of a long-term uptrend.

The Chart Analysis Score measures trend strength and direction based on five different timing thresholds. This tool considers intraday price action; new daily, weekly, and monthly highs and lows; and moving averages.
Click here to see the latest Score and Signals for PLSE.
What’s Next for This Penny Stock?
Remember, the markets move fast and things may quickly change for this stock. Our MarketClub members have access to entry and exit signals so they’ll know when the trend starts to reverse.
Join MarketClub now to see the latest signals and scores, get alerts, and read member-exclusive analysis for over 350K stocks, futures, ETFs, forex pairs and mutual funds.
Start Your MarketClub Trial
Best,The MarketClub Team[email protected]

One Penny Stock Posting Extraordinary Gains Read More »

Best Performing ETF Group is Not What You Think

With just two months to go in 2022, the best-performing group of Exchange Traded Funds year-to-date may not be what you would have expected it to be when we started the year.
After a strong bull market rally coming off the march 2020 Covid-19 dip, most investors would have assumed stocks, mainly big technology stocks, would again be the market leaders in 2022.
However, the market never ceases to surprise, and as hindsight is always in 20-20 vision, it feels like we all should have seen the signs that 2022 wasn’t going to be a good year for stocks and another asset class was going to dominate.
What asset class are we speaking of? Bonds! Well, to be more specific, shorting Treasury Bonds.

Shorting longer-dated Treasury bonds has been, hands down, the best trade of 2022. Whether you use leveraged and-or inverse products or not, shorting Treasury Bills has produced great results in 2022.
For example, the ProShares UltraPro Short 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TTT) is up 176% year-to-date and more than 50% over the last three months. Direxion’s version of the same ETF, the Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares ETF (TMV), is also up 176% year-to-date. The ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TBT), which is a 2X leveraged inverse fund, is up more than 100% year-to-date.
Even the funds that short the shorter term Treasury bills, the 7-10 year term bills, like the Direxion Daily 7-10 Year Treasury Bear 3X Share ETF (TYO) and the ProShares UltraShort 7-10 Year Treasury ETF (PST) are up 66% and 42% respectively.
If you had run a screener at the beginning of the year for non-leveraged and non-inverse funds because the risk involved with those products are not necessarily in your comfort zone, you still could have bought the Simplify Interest Rate Hedge ETF (PFIX). PFIX holds over-the-counter interest rate options and US Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities or TIPS, and still produced a return of around 100% year-to-date.
So you may be asking how and why shorting longer-dated Treasury bills produce solid results when interest rates, Treasury bills, and bond yields are climbing higher. Well, it is a little complicated on the surface but pretty simple once you understand how it all works.
First, let us think about it this way. You have owned a 10-year Treasury bill for three years, paying you 2.5% interest. In this scenario, interest rates are lower than when you bought the bill; let’s say the current 10-year bill is paying 2.00%. Your Treasury bill would be worth more than a current bill because your bill is paying a higher interest rate than what an investor could get if they bought a new one. In this situation, your Treasury bill increases in value as interest rates go lower since it pays a higher rate than what another investor could get otherwise.
In the second scenario, similar to what is currently happening in the bond market, you again hold a 10-year Treasury bill paying a 2.5% rate. However, rates are increasing. Thus, a recent 10-year Treasury bill is paying, let’s say, 3.00%. Since an investor looking for a 10-year Treasury bond can get a 3% return on a new bill, the value of your bill, which is only 2.5%, will be lower than what you paid for it.

As interest rates and Treasury yields increase, the value of your bill will continue to decline since investors can get a better yield if they buy more recently issued Treasury bills. All of the ETFs mentioned above are using this phenomenon to their benefit. They are all shorting the value of the longer-dated 20, 10, and 7-year Treasury bills, which are paying lower interest rates than what investors can get with the newly issued Treasury bills.
Furthermore, if the Federal Reserve continues to increase interest rates as a way to fight inflation, we will continue to see the value of older, longer-dated Treasury bills decline. However, even if the Fed begins to slow or even stops increasing interest rates in the coming months, the ETFs mentioned above will likely continue to produce solid returns as long as we don’t see interest rates rapidly decline.
If you are considering buying one of these products today, remember past performance is no guarantee of future results and that you may have missed the bulk of the trade on this one. Still, no one knows how high the Fed will be willing to push interest rates as it attempts to bring down inflation.
Matt ThalmanINO.com ContributorFollow me on Twitter @mthalman5513
Disclosure: This contributor did not hold a position in any investment mentioned above at the time this blog post was published. This article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. This contributor is not receiving compensation (other than from INO.com) for their opinion.

Best Performing ETF Group is Not What You Think Read More »

Two Growth Stocks to Buy on Dips

It’s been a volatile year for the major market averages, and the S&P-500 (SPY) has now corrected over 27% from its highs, suggesting we’ve seen the majority of the downside short-term.
This is based on the average recessionary bear market coming in at 34% and the S&P-500 now satisfying 80% of the average decline’s magnitude.
One of the most beaten-up areas of the market has been growth stocks, and with elevated pessimism finally increasing the likelihood of a short-term market bottom, this is the ideal time to be hunting for new ideas.
Unfortunately, not all stocks are created equal. While many growth stocks might be oversold, those still posting net losses per share and carrying high debt levels are extremely risky in a rising-rate environment.

However, for investors willing to dig through the rubble, two names stand out as extremely attractive, trading at significant discounts to fair value despite boasting strong earnings trends. In this update, we’ll look at two stocks that are solid buy-the-dip candidates:
Boot Barn (BOOT)
Boot Barn (BOOT) is a small-cap growth stock in the Retail/Apparel industry group that has enjoyed near triple-digit sales growth, increasing revenue from $180MM in fiscal Q1 2020 to $299MM in fiscal Q1 2023.
This has been accomplished by industry-leading same-store sales growth rates and continued unit growth (73 new stores opened), which is supported by the company’s continuously improving unit economics. For example, the company’s average sales per square foot have improved from a prior target of $170/square foot to over $400/square foot, increasing its payback period from three years to one year for new stores.
At the same time as sales have continued to increase at double-digit levels and it’s grown its store count to 330, the company has enjoyed growth in exclusive brand penetration, providing a significant boost to annual earnings per share.
This is because its private-label brands carry much higher margins, allowing BOOT to nearly quadruple annual EPS from FY2020 to FY2022 ($6.18 vs. $1.55). These are phenomenal growth rates, and with plans to grow its store count by over 12% this year, this growth story is still in its early innings.
Unfortunately, the stock has been crushed year-to-date (down 56%) due to the negative sentiment for the Retail Sector (XRT) and the company’s lukewarm comments in fiscal Q2 2023 guidance.
However, it’s important to note that while Boot Barn’s inventory levels were up and same-store sales decelerated, it has less of a discretionary tilt to its business than its peers. This is because many of its categories are functional and include work boots, work apparel, and men’s Western apparel).
So, while Boot Barn’s sales will be impacted by shrinking discretionary budgets among consumers, I expect it to be more insulated than some of its more discretionary peers.
The good news for investors who were patient to stay on the sidelines is that even if fiscal Q2 2023 results do show deceleration, considerable negativity is already priced into BOOT’s stock. This is because it is now trading at ~9.1x FY2023 earnings estimates ($5.95) and less than 8x FY2024 annual EPS estimates ($6.56).
The result is that Boot Barn is the definition of growth at a very reasonable price and the case of a proverbial baby being thrown out with the bathwater. So, with the stock pulling back below $55.00 to test technical support with a fair value above $90.00, I see this as a buying opportunity.
DocGo (DCGO)
DocGo (DCGO) is a $1.1BB company in the Medical Services industry group. It is a leading provider of last-mile mobile health services and integrated medical mobility solutions, and it was founded in 2015.
When it comes to the largest stock market winners over the past half-century, they have two key attributes, and DocGo also boasts these two characteristics. The first is high double-digit sales and earnings growth, and the second is a product or service that changes how we live or disrupts an industry.
In terms of disruption, the company’s mobile health segment up-trains lower-cost medical professionals to provide care in the homes or offices of patients, filling a gap that telehealth cannot.
Meanwhile, its medical transportation segment provides non-emergency ambulance transportation for hospital systems. The result is that healthcare is more efficient, and patients don’t slip through the cracks, given that those who cannot get to hospitals easily can receive the care they need. Those that must get to hospitals for care are provided a way to get through without delay through non-emergency ambulance transportation.
Although the story is exciting from an investment standpoint, the financials are the most important. Fortunately, DocGo excels in this category. The company reported 78% revenue growth in its most recent, and quarterly earnings per share increased 83%, helped by higher margins.
This is a clear differentiator in a market where we’re seeing margin compression for most small-cap companies. In fact, DocGo’s H1 2022 results were so strong that the company raised its FY2022 sales guidance to $430MM and is now looking to take advantage of market weakness to buy back its stock, with it sitting on over $200MM in cash.
Based on a fair earnings multiple of 50 for a high-margin company boasting these growth rates, I see over 72% upside for DCGO, with a fair value of $19.00 (50x FY2023 annual EPS estimates of $0.38).
Longer-term, though, I see an upside to more than $25.00 per share, with the company having a massive TAM where it’s barely scratched the surface and continuing to see strong growth in new contracts.

So, with DCGO being one of the few small-cap names in uptrends with high double-digit revenue growth, I would view any pullbacks below $10.00 as buying opportunities.
With the general market under pressure and stocks continuing to plumb new lows, it’s understandable that many investors are shying away from putting new capital to work.
However, it is a market of stocks, not a stock market. BOOT and DCGO are two examples of growth at a very reasonable price that could increase by 80% over the next 24 months. This is due to being heavily mispriced due to the increased downside volatility we’ve experienced in the market, where investors are selling indiscriminately to raise cash.
So, while position sizing is key in small-cap names, I see both as attractive below $54.00 (BOOT) and $10.00 (DCGO), respectively.
Taylor DartINO.com Contributor
Disclaimer: This article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. Taylor Dart is not a Registered Investment Advisor or Financial Planner. This writing is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation to buy, or a recommendation regarding any securities transaction. The information contained in this writing should not be construed as financial or investment advice on any subject matter. Taylor Dart expressly disclaims all liability in respect to actions taken based on any or all of the information in this writing.

Two Growth Stocks to Buy on Dips Read More »

Health Care Stocks You’ll Wish You Bought Sooner

The latest inflation data has further aggravated recession worries. With inflation still hovering near its multi-decade high, the odds of the Fed proceeding with its fourth consecutive 75-bps interest rate hike are pretty high. The consequent increase in recession fears has dampened the market sentiment significantly.
However, healthcare companies enjoy demand and margins resistant to inflation and recession. The inelastic demand for healthcare products helps these companies generate stable revenues regardless of inflationary pressures and consumers’ spending cuts amid a recession.
Moreover, the demand for healthcare products and services could rise further due to the increased need to serve aging Baby Boomers and the increasing frequency and severity of chronic conditions.

According to a report published by Health Affairs, national health spending is expected to reach $6.8 trillion by 2030.
Hence, given ongoing macroeconomic turbulence and uncertain outlook, one could make the most of the strong uptrend in healthcare stocks Eli Lilly and Company (LLY), Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK), and Biogen Inc. (BIIB) by investing in them.
Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)
LLY discovers, develops, and markets human pharmaceuticals worldwide. With a market capitalization of $314.88 billion, the company provides diabetes, oncology, neuroscience, and other products.
Over the last three years, LLY has grown its revenue at a 10.3% CAGR, while the company’s EBITDA has grown at a 13.3% CAGR.
For the second quarter of the fiscal year 2022 ended June 30, 2022, LLY’s worldwide revenue stood at $6.49 billion. Excluding revenue from Alimta, the sale of the company’s rights to Cialis in China in Q2 2021, and COVID-19 antibodies, the company’s revenue grew 6% year-over-year. LLY’s operating income and net income came in at $1.21 billion and $952.50 million, respectively. Its non-GAAP EPS came in at $1.25.
The consensus revenue estimate of $30.30 billion for fiscal 2023, ending September 2023, represents a 5.2% improvement year-over-year. Also, Street expects LLY’s EPS to grow 16.3% year-over-year to $9.28 during the same period.
LLY’s stock is trading at a premium, indicating high expectations regarding the company’s performance in the upcoming quarters. Regarding forward P/E, LLY is trading at 41.69x, 122.7% higher than the industry average of 18.7x. Also, it is trading at a forward Price/Sales multiple of 10.98 compares to the industry average of 4.25.
The stock is currently trading above its 50-Day and 200-Day moving averages of $315.46 and $293.68, respectively, indicating a bullish trend. It has gained 10.7% over the past month to close the last trading session at $332.76.
MarketClub’s Trade Triangles show that LLY has been trending UP for all the three-time horizons. The long-term trend for LLY has been UP since March 17, 2022, while its intermediate-term and short-term trends have been UP since September 28 and October 14, 2022, respectively.
The Trade Triangles are our proprietary indicators, comprised of weighted factors that include (but are not necessarily limited to) price change, percentage change, moving averages, and new highs/lows. The Trade Triangles point in the direction of short-term, intermediate, and long-term trends, looking for periods of alignment and, therefore, intense swings in price.
In terms of the Chart Analysis Score, another MarketClub proprietary tool, LLY scored +100 on a scale from -100 (strong downtrend) to +100 (strong uptrend), indicating that the uptrend is likely to continue. However, traders should protect gains.The Chart Analysis Score measures trend strength and direction based on five different timing thresholds. This tool considers intraday price action; new daily, weekly, and monthly highs and lows; and moving averages.
Click here to see the latest Score and Signals for LLY.
Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK)
With a market capitalization of $233.52 billion, MRK is a global healthcare company offering prescription medicines, vaccines, biological therapies, and animal health products. The company operates through Pharmaceuticals and Animal Health segments.
MRK’s revenue, EBITDA, and EPS increased at CAGRs of 8.8%, 10.1%, and 22.3% over the last three years, respectively.
In the fiscal 2022 second quarter ended June 30, 2022, MRK’s sales increased 28% year-over-year to $14.59 billion. The company’s non-GAAP net income grew 204.2% from the year-ago quarter to $4.74 billion. During the same period, its non-GAAP EPS amounted to $1.87, up 206.6% year-over-year.
Analysts expect MRK’s revenue for the current fiscal year (ending December 31, 2022) to come in at $58.54 billion, indicating an increase of 20.2% year-over-year. The company’s EPS is expected to increase 22.3% year-over-year to $7.36. Furthermore, MRK has topped the consensus EPS estimates in each of the trailing four quarters.
The stock is currently trading at a discount to its peers. In terms of forward P/E, MRK is presently trading at 12.53x, 31.3% lower than the industry average of 18.19x. Also, its forward Price/Sales multiple of 3.99 compares with the industry average of 4.22.
MRK is currently trading above its 50-Day and 200-Day moving averages of $88.48 and $85.82, respectively, indicating a bullish trend. It has gained 9.3% over the past month to close the last trading session at $94.12.
According to the Trade Triangles, MRK has been trending UP for all three time periods. The long-term trend for MRK has been UP since October 1, 2021, while its intermediate-term and short-term trends have been UP since October 10 and October 14, 2022, respectively.
In terms of the Chart Analysis Score, MRK scored +90, indicating that the stock is in a strong uptrend that is likely to continue. While MRK shows intraday weakness, it remains in the confines of a bullish trend. Traders should use caution and utilize a stop order.
Click here to see the latest Score and Signals for MRK.
Biogen Inc. (BIIB)
BIIB develops, manufactures, and delivers therapies for treating neurological and neurodegenerative diseases. With a market capitalization of $38.40 billion, BIIB has a leading portfolio of medicines to treat multiple sclerosis, introduced the first approved treatment for spinal muscular atrophy, and developed the first and only approved treatment to address a defining pathology of Alzheimer’s disease.
During the fiscal 2022 second quarter ended June 30, 2022, BIIB’s total revenue came in at $2.59 billion, registering a slight year-over-year decline due in part to generic and biosimilar competition for TECFIDERA and RITUXAN. Total cost and expenses declined 39.8% year-over-year to $1.32 billion.
As a result, BIIB’s net income increased 135.9% from the year-ago value to $1.06 billion, while its EPS grew 142.1% from the prior-year quarter to $7.24.
Analysts expect BIIB’s EPS for the fourth quarter of the current fiscal year (ending December 31, 2022) to increase by 3.2% year-over-year to $3.50. The company has surpassed the consensus EPS estimates in three of the trailing four quarters.
The stock is currently trading at a discount to its peers. In terms of forward P/E, BIIB is currently trading at 16.3x, 12.8% lower than the industry average of 18.72x. Also, its forward Price/Sales multiple of 3.91 compares favorably with the industry average of 4.33.
The stock is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages of $222.59 and $214.35, respectively, indicating a bullish trend. It has gained 30.9% over the past month to close the last trading session at $269.55.
BIIB has been trending UP for all three time periods, according to Trade Triangles. The long-term trend for BIIB has been UP since August 8, 2022, while its intermediate-term and short-term trends have been UP since September 12 and October 13, 2022, respectively.

In terms of the Chart Analysis Score, BIIB scored +90, indicating that it is in a strong uptrend that is likely to continue. While BIIB shows intraday weakness, it remains in the confines of a bullish trend. Traders should use caution and utilize a stop order.
Click here to see the latest Score and Signals for BIIB.
What’s Next for these Health Care Stocks?
Remember, the markets move fast and things may quickly change for these stocks. Our MarketClub members have access to entry and exit signals so they’ll know when these trends start to reverse.
Join MarketClub now to see the latest signals and scores, get alerts, and read member-exclusive analysis for over 350K stocks, futures, ETFs, forex pairs and mutual funds.
Start Your MarketClub Trial
Best,The MarketClub Team[email protected]

Health Care Stocks You’ll Wish You Bought Sooner Read More »

2 Overly Traded Stocks to Avoid This Fall

Stubborn inflation, rising interest rates, and consequent market volatility have kept many investors on edge. Inflation shows no signs of slowing, despite the Fed’s aggressive monetary policy tightening.
The consumer price index increased 0.4% sequentially in September, beating the Dow Jones estimate. The headline inflation was up 8.2% on a 12-month basis, hovering near the highest levels in decades.
The surging inflation and hot employment data for September strengthen the case for the Fed announcing a fourth 75-basis-point interest rate hike in next month’s meeting. Given these circumstances, the Conference Board sees a 96% chance of a recession in the United States over the coming 12 months, which might begin before the end of 2022. Moreover, the board projects 2022 real GDP to grow 1.5% year-over-year and 2023 growth to zero percent.

Since the economic headwinds are expected to keep the stock market under pressure, overly traded stock Pfizer Inc. (PFE) and Snap Inc. (SNAP) could be best avoided now, with their intermediate and long-term trends being down.
Pfizer Inc. (PFE)
Popular drugmaker PFE discovers, develops, manufactures, and distributes biopharmaceutical products worldwide. The pandemic made PFE one of the world’s most watched stocks, thanks to its COVID-19 drugs and vaccines. The stock has a market capitalization of $240.55 billion.
Although the company has recently announced some promising deals, acquisitions, and FDA approvals, the stock has declined 27.4% year-to-date, underperforming the S&P 500’s 23% decline. The stock has been underperforming the broader market, with investors pricing in the expected sales decline that the company might experience due to an anticipated slowdown in Covid vaccinations in the near term.
For the fiscal second quarter that ended June 30, 2022, PFE’s revenues increased 46.8% year-over-year to $27.74 billion. However, the company’s revenues largely leaned on sales of its Covid-19 vaccine Comirnaty and its antiviral treatment Paxlovid. The Covid-19 vaccine brought in $8.80 billion in revenue in the second quarter, while sales of Paxlovid totaled $8.10 billion.
Adjusted net income attributable to PFE common shareholders rose 93.5% from the year-ago value to $11.66 billion, while adjusted EPS grew 92.5% year-over-year to $2.04.
Wall Street analysts expect PFE’s revenues to decline in the about-to-be-reported quarter, which ended September 2022. The consensus revenue estimate of $21.33 billion for the fiscal third quarter indicates an 11.5% year-over-year decline.
Its EPS is expected to come in at $1.43, indicating a 7% increase from the prior-year quarter. However, revenue and EPS are expected to decrease 22.3% and 20.2% year-over-year for the next year, respectively.
The stock is currently trading at a discount to its peers. In terms of its forward P/E, PFE is trading at 7.57x, 65.6% lower than the industry average of 21.98x. Its forward Price/Sales multiple of 2.41 is 42.2% lower than the industry average of 4.16.
PFE is trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages of $46.08 and $50.17, respectively, indicating a bearish sentiment. It closed the last trading session at $42.86.
According to MarketClub’s Trade Triangles, the long-term trend for PFE has been DOWN since August 29, 2022, and its intermediate-term trend has been DOWN since Jul 21, 2022.
The Trade Triangles are our proprietary indicators, comprised of weighted factors that include (but are not necessarily limited to) price change, percentage change, moving averages, and new highs/lows. The Trade Triangles point in the direction of short-term, intermediate, and long-term trends, looking for periods of alignment and, therefore, intense swings in price.
In terms of the Chart Analysis Score, another MarketClub proprietary tool, PFE scored -55 on a scale from -100 (strong downtrend) to +100 (strong uptrend), indicating that the stock is moving in a sideways pattern and is unable to gain momentum in either direction. So, until a more robust trend is identified, it could be wise to avoid the stock.
The Chart Analysis Score measures trend strength and direction based on five different timing thresholds. This tool considers intraday price action, new daily, weekly, and monthly highs and lows, and moving averages.
Click here to see the latest Score and Signals for PFE.
Snap Inc. (SNAP)
SNAP is a camera and social media company operating worldwide. The company’s popular offering is Snapchat, a camera application with various functionalities, such as Camera, Communication, Snap Map, Stories, and Spotlight, enabling people to communicate visually through short videos and images.
The stock has declined 87% over the past year and 78.8% year-to-date to close the last session at $9.99. Bearish sentiments around the stock can be attributed to the challenging economic conditions, slowing demand for its online ad platform, Apple Inc.’s (AAPL) privacy-related changes, and growing competition from emerging social media companies.
SNAP’s daily active users grew 18% year-over-year to 347 million in the fiscal second quarter that ended June 2022. However, its average revenue per user declined by 4% to $3.20.
The company’s revenue increased 13.1% year-over-year to $1.11 billion. However, its net loss increased 178.3% year-over-year to $422.07 million, while its non-GAAP loss per share came in at $0.02, compared to an EPS of $0.10 in the prior-year period.
While analysts expect its revenue to increase 5.3% year-over-year to $1.12 billion in the about-to-be-reported quarter, ended September 2022, its EPS is expected to remain negative. The Street expects its EPS to decline 85.4% year-over-year in the fiscal year ending December 2022.
The stock looks overvalued at its current price level. Its forward non-GAAP P/E of 137x is 931% higher than the industry average of 13.29x. Regarding its forward Price/Sales, SNAP is currently trading at 3.52x, 215% higher than the industry average of 1.12x.
SNAP is currently trading below its 50-day moving average of $11.03 and 200-day moving average of $23.01.

SNAP’s long-term trend has been DOWN since October 22, 2021, while the intermediate-term trend has been DOWN since September 26, 2022, according to the Trade Triangles.
In terms of the Chart Analysis Score, SNAP scored -55. This score indicates that SNAP is moving in a sideways pattern and is unable to gain momentum in either direction. Until a more substantial trend is identified, the stock could be avoided.
Click here to see the latest Score and Signals for SNAP.
What’s Next for Pfizer Inc. (PFE) and Snap Inc. (SNAP)?
Join MarketClub now to see the latest signals and scores, get alerts, and read member-exclusive analysis for PFE and SNAP plus over 350K stocks, futures, ETFs, forex pairs and mutual funds.
Start Your MarketClub Trial
Best,The MarketClub Team[email protected]

2 Overly Traded Stocks to Avoid This Fall Read More »

Gold Update: The Breakdown

It’s all about persisting inflation at the end of the day. All markets watch how the Fed tries to fight it as aftershocks of rate decisions are observed in bonds, stock market, foreign exchange, precious metals and even crypto.
Source: TradingView
The graph above visualizes that “fight of the night”. Indeed, we witness some progress of the Fed’s efforts in the falling U.S. inflation (red line) numbers from the peak of 9.1% in the summer down to the latest data of September at 8.2%, which was still above the expected 8.1%.
The 3% increase of the Fed rate (blue line) brought inflation down only by 0.9%. It is way too slow, as the inflation target of 2% is still way too far, hence the Fed could keep their aggressive tightening mode.

Surely, there is a time lag between the Fed action and the inflation reaction. However, the time is ticking away as inflation is like a fire – the earlier it’s extinguished the better.
The real interest rate (black line, down pane) crossed over the August top above the -5.1%. The next resistance is at -3.7% (valley of 2011) and it is highly likely to be hit soon as it is only 1.2% away. The valley of 2017 in -2% is almost 3% away, which means a huge Fed rate hike or a big drop of inflation. We can’t rule it out anyway.

 Loading …
Indeed, these interest rate projections above could make precious metals life tough. Let’s check the gold futures chart below.
Source: TradingView
The gold futures price has lost ground last month as it has dived below the July growth point of $1,678. It was a double support as the price also breached the black dashed long-term trendline. We can see the textbook price action there – breakdown, retest of broken support and resumption of collapse.
The yield of 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds (red line) skyrocketed to 4%, extending the divergence with the gold price hugely. This amplifies the bearish potential for the gold price massively.
I added the US M2 money supply indicator (green line) to show you that it is flat and it offers a cap for the gold price. It suppresses the bullish potential for the metal as the “printing press” has stopped.
The Volume profile indicator (orange) shows that the price is in the volume gap as there is no support until it drops to $1,500. Beware of it, as it is not as thick as the above resistance area at $1,800 and the next support zone at $1,300.
The RSI is in bearish mode as it didn’t even touch the waterline during the price retest of the broken support.
Last time the majority of readers chose the only bullish option that the price would hold the ground of $1,678. This is that rare case when your main bet did not play out.

The next support of $1,500 was the second choice. In terms of Volume profile indicator, the $1,300 support is larger than the $1,500. However, the $1,300 option has been skipped in favor of really “die-hard” support of $1,000. It means that readers consider $1,500 as a “fly or die” option.

 Loading …
Intelligent trades!
Aibek BurabayevINO.com Contributor
Disclosure: This contributor has no positions in any stocks mentioned in this article. This article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. This contributor is not receiving compensation (other than from INO.com) for their opinion.

Gold Update: The Breakdown Read More »

ETFs for a Strong Dollar

Since the Federal Reserve started raising interest rates, we have seen a dramatic increase in the US dollar. The main reason is that the dollar is becoming a more attractive investment for investors at home and worldwide.
There are a lot of dynamics at play that investors need to consider when the dollar is rising. Such as, a rising dollar will hurt domestic companies that sell internationally because the exchange rate lowers their profits. However, companies that import raw materials will benefit from a strong dollar.
Due to the strong dollar, some emerging markets will suffer if they borrow in dollars. This happens because it becomes harder for borrowers to pay back their debt as the dollar strengthens. Furthermore, these same countries can get hit with a double whammy if they also import many US goods since those goods will now be more expensive.
Let us look at a few Exchange Traded Funds that you can buy that will help your portfolio weather this strong dollar storm.

I would like to mention the first two ETFs are also rather obvious picks. The Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) and the WisdomTree Bloomberg US Dollar Bullish Fund (USDU) both are long the US dollar against a basket of other global currencies.
In plain English, these funds increase when the dollar rises and decline when the dollar declines compared to other international currencies. There is no magic here and nothing fancy going on; if you think the dollar is going higher, buy one of these two funds and hold it for a while.
Another set of ETFs you could buy are dividend-paying ones. Something like SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 High Dividend ETF (SPYD), the WisdomTree US High Dividend Fund (DHS), or my favorite, the ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (NOBL).
These will typically do well when the dollar rises for a few reasons, mainly because the stronger dollar will likely hit the earnings of companies with large exports. But, as companies, especially those in the Dividend Aristocrat group, are very reluctant to cut their dividends, the stock prices of these firms usually hold up better than the non-dividend paying stocks.
Another option is to focus on industries that have high US imports. The two top industries with the highest imports are pharmaceuticals and medical equipment. So you could buy Exchange Traded Funds that own pharma and medical equipment companies – Something like the VanEck Pharmaceutical ETF (PPH) or the iShares US Medical Devices ETF (IHI).
Since these ETFs focus on two industries with high levels of imports, the strong dollar will help lower their material costs, which should translate to making companies more profitable.

Another industry you may want to look at is the auto industry. Auto manufacturers import a lot of the parts that go into building a vehicle. Plus, a sizable number of automobiles sold in the US are actually built in other countries.
The auto industry has many moving parts and many different factors that could cause stocks operating in this industry to decline. Finally, the auto industry doesn’t have a great Exchange Traded Fund.
However, if you still want to look into it, check out the First Trust NASDAQ Global Auto Index Fund (CARZ) or the Simplify Volt RoboCar Disruption and Tech ETF (VCAR).
As things currently sit in the US economy, it would appear that the Federal Reserve will continue to increase the federal funds rate in the short term. That means the likelihood that the US dollar will continue to increase is high.
So, while you may feel you missed the big move on the dollar, that may be true that the most significant part of the move has occurred, but that doesn’t mean that you still can’t get a little more juice out of this lemon.

ETFs for a Strong Dollar Read More »

Poised for the Fed Pivot

Given its past history, both over the long term and especially more recently, it’s inevitable, if not a given, that the Federal Reserve will screw up. This time should be no different. When exactly this will manifest itself is hard to say, but it may be soon—possibly before the end of this year or in early 2023.
The Fed, as we know well, grossly inflated prices and asset values post-pandemic by sticking too long to an overly accommodative monetary policy, holding its benchmark federal funds level at zero percent as recently as March and continuing to buy Treasury bonds, long after inflation was shown to be a lot more “transitory” than the Fed thought.
Now we are all paying the price for the Fed’s belated realization that it was wrong about inflation, as it has raised interest rates five times in the past six months, to 3.00%-to-3.25%, including 75 basis points at each of its past three meetings, and shows few signs of intending to sit and wait and see how those rate hikes will affect the economy.
In the process, the Fed has basically chucked the second piece of its dual mandate, namely maximizing employment, in order to slay the inflation beast.

The American consumer and investor are thus no better than pawns in the Fed’s game of trying to fix a situation it largely created by itself, yet there is no reason to believe that its current policies are any better or smarter than its previous prescriptions, which involved flooding the financial markets with buckets of cheap money it didn’t need.
Now it’s trying to undo all that in a few short months, all while trying not to steer the economy into the ditch, although perfectly happy to throw people out of work and gut their retirement portfolios.
(Question: If the Fed’s actions will force some people to keep working or rejoin the labor force—and there are still plenty of job openings—doesn’t that work against its plan to reduce employment?)
At some point — sooner rather than later, we hope, but no doubt later than everyone else — the Fed will suddenly come to the conclusion that it’s gone too far with tightening and will start to take its foot off the monetary brakes. It may not start to lower interest rates, necessarily, but at least take a breather and see what effect its recent new-found hawkishness has had on inflation and economic growth.
Far from being the “data dependent” experts of the recent past, the Fed has suddenly become slaves to the notion that inflation is deeply embedded in the economy and that it won’t pause until it believes the job is done, regardless of what the forward data portend. But what if the job already is done, or at least largely so? Shouldn’t we at least pause and see if it is?
What’s particularly startling about the Fed’s arrogance — there is no other word to describe it — is that it’s based on so much information and so many (book) smart people interpreting that data, yet time after time they manage to get it wrong.
One of the most astonishing things I’ve noticed about Fed policy since I’ve been writing this column is how often they’ve been caught flat-footed by the release of a government statistic — CPI or the unemployment rate, say — that you feel almost certain that it should have known about beforehand, yet it seemed more surprised about it than anyone.
So asking the Fed to forecast something — long-term inflation in this case — is asking it to do something that not only no one can do with any accuracy, but that the Fed is itself seems particularly incapable of doing. Yet here we all are at its mercy.
I do not pretend to know what inflation will be at the end of next year. But I am fairly confident that the Fed’s forecast will be wrong, as will its prescription about what to do about it.

Stock prices keep dropping and bond yields keep rising on the assumption that the Fed will continue its full-speed-ahead approach to monetary tightening. So if my premise is correct, that the Fed may be closer to ending its rate-rising regimen sooner than it now claims it is, the market may be set to reverse course and move higher.
I anticipate more bumps in the road ahead. But I’m starting to think that the stock and bond markets are going to end the year higher than where they are now, meaning the fourth quarter may turn out positive for investors, as the Fed finally comes to the conclusion that it was wrong and everyone else was right.
Treasury notes maturing in less than five years are yielding well above 4%. Should that handle get to 5, that could be the signal to start shopping.
George YacikINO.com Contributor
Disclosure: This article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. This contributor is not receiving compensation (other than from INO.com) for their opinion.

Poised for the Fed Pivot Read More »