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1 Strong Trending Financial Stock And 1 To Avoid

With a slower increase in supplier and consumer prices signaling an easing of inflationary pressures, hopes of less aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve are also rising.
While a broad economic recovery bodes well for the financial services sector, given rising borrowing costs and credit risks, traders should be judicious in picking stocks from this space.

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Given its strong price trends, it could be wise to buy NerdWallet, Inc. (NRDS) to capitalize on the industry tailwinds. On the other hand, Ally Financial Inc. (ALLY) might be best avoided now, given its downtrend.
NerdWallet, Inc. (NRDS)
NRDS operates as a personal finance company. Through its platform, it delivers a range of financial products, including credit cards, mortgages, insurance, SMB products, personal loans, banking, investing, and student loans, to empower consumers and small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) to make informed financial decisions at the right time.

For the fiscal 2022 third quarter, which ended September 30, 2022, NRDS’s revenue increased 45% year-over-year to $142.6 million, driven primarily by success across credit cards, banking, personal loans, and SMB verticals. During the same period, the company’s net income came in at $0.7 million or $0.01 per share, compared to a net loss of $7.8 million or $0.16 per share in the previous-year quarter.
Analysts expect NRDS to report revenue of $139.59 million for the fourth quarter of the current fiscal, ending December 2022, registering a 40.3% year-over-year increase. During the same period, the company’s EPS is expected to come in at $0.08, compared to a loss of $0.13 per share in the year-ago period.
Owing to its strong performance and solid growth prospects, NRDS is currently commanding a premium valuation compared to its peers. In terms of forward P/E, NRDS is currently trading at 67.53x compared to the industry average of 10.39x. Also, its forward EV/EBITDA multiple of 15.43 compares to the industry average of 12.28.
The stock is currently trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages of $11.24 and $10.64, respectively, indicating a bullish trend. It has gained 30.4% over the past month to close the last trading session at $13.13.
MarketClub’s Trade Triangles show that NRDS has been trending UP for all three-time horizons. Its long-term trend has been UP since November 1, 2022, while its intermediate-term trend has been UP since October 11, 2022. Its short-term trend has also been UP since November 17.
Source: MarketClub
The Trade Triangles are our proprietary indicators, comprised of weighted factors that include (but are not necessarily limited to) price change, percentage change, moving averages, and new highs/lows. The Trade Triangles point in the direction of short-term, intermediate, and long-term trends, looking for periods of alignment and, therefore, strong swings in price.
In terms of the Chart Analysis Score, another MarketClub proprietary tool, NRDS scored +100 on a scale from -100 (strong downtrend) to +100 (strong uptrend), indicating a strong uptrend that is likely to continue. Traders should protect gains and look for a change in score to suggest a slowdown in momentum.

The Chart Analysis Score measures trend strength and direction based on five different timing thresholds. This tool takes into account intraday price action, new daily, weekly, and monthly highs and lows, and moving averages.
Click here to see the latest Score and Signals for NRDS.
Ally Financial Inc. (ALLY)
ALLY offers financial products and services digitally to commercial and corporate customers. The company operates through four segments: Automotive Finance; Insurance; Mortgage Finance; and Corporate Finance.
For the third quarter of fiscal 2022, ALLY’s adjusted total net revenue decreased 1% year-over-year to $2.09 billion. During the same period, the company’s core net income attributable to common shareholders decreased 55.8% year-over-year to $346 million. This translated to an adjusted quarterly EPS of $1.12, down 48.1% year-over-year.
Analysts expect ALLY’s EPS for fiscal 2022 to decrease 29.8% year-over-year to $6.05. Moreover, the company has missed the consensus EPS estimates in two of the trailing four quarters.
In terms of forward P/E, ALLY is currently trading at 4.34x compared to the industry average of 10.39x. Also, its forward Price/Sales multiple of 0.94 compares to the industry average of 2.90.
ALLY’s stock is currently trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages of $28.53 and $36.74, respectively, indicating a bearish trend. It has slumped 35% over the past six months and 46% year-to-date to close the last trading session at $26.24.

MarketClub’s Trade Triangles show that ALLY has been trending DOWN for all three-time horizons. The long-term trend for ALLY has been DOWN since November 19, 2021. Its intermediate and short-term trends have been DOWN since September 1, 2022, and November 16, 2022, respectively.
Source: MarketClub
In terms of the Chart Analysis Score, ALLY scored -90 on a scale from -100 (strong downtrend) to +100 (strong uptrend), indicating that it is in a strong downtrend that is likely to continue. While ALLY is showing intraday strength, it remains in the confines of a bearish trend. Traders should use caution and set stops.

Click here to see the latest Score and Signals for ALLY.
What’s Next for These Financial Stocks?
Remember, the markets move fast and things may quickly change for these stocks. Our MarketClub members have access to entry and exit signals so they’ll know when the trend starts to reverse.
Join MarketClub now to see the latest signals and scores, get alerts, and read member-exclusive analysis for over 350K stocks, futures, ETFs, forex pairs and mutual funds.
Start Your MarketClub Trial
Best,The MarketClub Team[email protected]

1 Strong Trending Financial Stock And 1 To Avoid Read More »

Two Tasty Stocks With Current Uptrends

The consumer price index (CPI) increased 7.7% year-over-year in October, lower than expectations. This indicates that the inflationary pressures have started to cool.
Thanks to the slightly cooled inflation, the S&P 500 has gained 7.7% over the past month, while the Dow Jones and Nasdaq Composite climbed 10.6% and 5%, respectively.
Furthermore, Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard signaled that the Fed would likely slow the pace of its interest rate hikes.

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The U.S. Census Bureau reported that the overall retail sales in October grew 1.3% from September and 8.3% year-over-year.

“October’s performance is a strong foothold as we go into the holiday season,” said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz. Thus, holiday spending is expected to remain healthy despite the recent inflationary pressures.
According to the latest forecast by the National Retail Federation, holiday retail sales during November and December will advance between 6% and 8% over the last year to $942.60-$960.40 billion.
Source: National Retail Federation“While consumers feel the pressure of inflation and higher prices, and while there is continued stratification with consumer spending and behavior among households at different income levels, consumers remain resilient and continue to engage in commerce. In the face of these challenges, many households will supplement spending with savings and credit to provide a cushion and result in a positive holiday season,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay.
Given this backdrop, investors should load up on Utz Brands, Inc. (UTZ) and Westrock Coffee Company, LLC (WEST) to prepare their portfolios for the holiday season by taking advantage of their uptrends.
Utz Brands, Inc. (UTZ)
UTZ operates as a snack food manufacturing company. Its offerings include a range of salty snacks under the Utz, Zapp’s, ON THE BORDER, Golden Flake, Boulder Canyon, Hawaiian, TGIF, and other brand names. The company distributes its products to grocery, mass, convenience, drug, and other retailers. UTZ’s revenue has grown at a CAGR of 33.7% over the last three years.
In the fiscal 2022 third quarter ended October 2, 2022, UTZ’s net sales increased 16% year-over-year to $362.80 million. The increase in net sales was driven by Organic Net Sales growth of 12.6% and acquisitions of 4.7%. Its adjusted gross profit grew 18.6% from the prior-year period to $132.60 million. The company’s adjusted EBITDA came in at $47.70 million, up 6.5% year-over-year.
Furthermore, UTZ raised its full-year 2022 outlook. It increased its total net sales growth outlook from 13-15% to 17-19% and its Organic Net Sales growth outlook from 10-12% to 13-15%. The improved guidance for net sales growth reflects the company’s year-to-date performance and continued business momentum.
In addition, for fiscal 2022, the company raised its adjusted EBITDA outlook from 2-5% growth to an updated range of $166 million to $170 million, or 6-9% compared to the prior year.
Analysts expect UTZ’s revenue of $336.21 million for the fiscal 2022 fourth quarter (ending December 31, 2022), indicating an increase of 11.7% year-over-year. The company’s EPS for the current quarter is expected to grow 8% year-over-year to $0.12. Furthermore, the company has surpassed the consensus revenue estimates in each of the trailing four quarters.
UTZ is currently trading at a premium, indicating high expectations regarding the company’s performance in the upcoming quarters. Regarding forward non-GAAP P/E, UTZ is trading at 34.03x, 82.1% higher than the industry average of 18.69x. Likewise, its forward EV/Sales multiple of 2.29 compares to the industry average of 1.71.
The stock is currently trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages of $15.73 and $15.17, respectively, indicating an uptrend. It has gained 26.5% over the past six months to close the last trading session at $17.91.
MarketClub’s Trade Triangles show that UTZ has been trending UP for all the three-time horizons. The long-term trend for UTZ has been UP since July 20, 2022, while its intermediate-term and short-term trends have been UP since October 18, 2022, and November 8, 2022, respectively.
Source: MarketClub
The Trade Triangles are our proprietary indicators, comprised of weighted factors that include (but are not necessarily limited to) price change, percentage change, moving averages, and new highs/lows. The Trade Triangles point in the direction of short-term, intermediate, and long-term trends, looking for periods of alignment and, therefore, intense swings in price.
In terms of the Chart Analysis Score, another MarketClub proprietary tool, UTZ scored +90 on a scale from -100 (strong downtrend) to +100 (strong uptrend), indicating that the uptrend will likely continue. While UTZ shows intraday weakness, it remains in the confines of a bullish trend.

The Chart Analysis Score measures trend strength and direction based on five different timing thresholds. This tool considers intraday price action; new daily, weekly, and monthly highs and lows; and moving averages.
Click here to see the latest Score and Signals for UTZ.
Westrock Coffee Company, LLC (WEST)
WEST is the leading coffee, tea, and extract service provider in the United States, providing sourcing and financing, roasting, packaging, and distribution services to retailers, convenience stores, and hospitality customers worldwide. The company operates through Beverage Solutions and Sustainable Sourcing and Traceability segments. It has a market capitalization of $933.38 million.
For the fiscal 2022 third quarter ended September 30, 2022, WEST’s net sales increased 27% year-over-year to $230.30 million due to an increase in single-serve cup volume and a rise in underlying green coffee prices, partially offset by a decrease in roast and ground coffee volumes. The company’s gross profit grew 7% year-over-year to $41.10 million. Its income from operations came in at $5.50 million, up 36% year-over-year.
In addition, the company’s adjusted EBITDA increased 33% from the year-ago value to $17.90 million, driven by increased gross profit, coupled with improved expense management, primarily driven by personnel cost savings, partially offset by higher professional fees.
Analysts expect WEST’s revenue for the fiscal year (ending December 2023) to come in at $957.84 million, representing an increase of 9.7% year-over-year. The consensus EPS estimate of $0.25 for the next year indicates a 406.7% year-over-year increase.
Shares of WEST have gained 29% over the past month to close the last trading session at $12.78. The stock is currently trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages of $10.59 and $10.15, respectively, indicating an uptrend.

MarketClub’s Trade Triangles show that WEST has been trending UP for all the three-time horizons. The long-term trend for WEST has been UP since November 11, 2022, while its intermediate-term and short-term trends have been UP since October 28, 2022, and November 4, 2022, respectively.
Source: MarketClub
In terms of the Chart Analysis Score, WEST scored +100 on a scale from -100 (strong downtrend) to +100 (strong uptrend), indicating that the uptrend will likely continue. Traders should protect gains and look for a change in score to suggest a slowdown in momentum.

Click here to see the latest Score and Signals for WEST.
What’s Next for These Stocks?
Remember, the markets move fast and things may quickly change for these stocks. Our MarketClub members have access to entry and exit signals so they’ll know when the trend starts to reverse.
Join MarketClub now to see the latest signals and scores, get alerts, and read member-exclusive analysis for over 350K stocks, futures, ETFs, forex pairs and mutual funds.
Start Your MarketClub Trial
Best,The MarketClub Team[email protected]

Two Tasty Stocks With Current Uptrends Read More »

Crude Oil vs Platinum: You Bet Right

It is just amazing how many times you guess not only the direction but also the peaks and troughs of the prices of different instruments. This is crowd-thinking or crowd-analyzing, when the winning ideas are crystallized into the major wager.
This “market distortion” was spotted in July and it was updated this September. Almost all of you were betting that crude oil and platinum would meet on the price chart again. So, here it is in the chart below.
Source: TradingView
The magic of your major bet is right here in the making. As the oil price remains stuck in a sideways consolidation, the platinum price is taking quick steps towards “black gold”.   

In September, crude oil futures completed their mission as the initial meeting point was set at $75 and the valley was at $76. Hence, the consolidation that followed gave the metal a chance to catch up.
The updated meeting point has been recalculated to be set at $62 for crude oil futures and at $1,160 for platinum futures. This could happen in an ideal situation. Historically, however, one of the instruments has often lagged behind.
Last time I updated the platinum futures chart for you and it played out well according to the bullish option.
Let me update the oil futures chart this time as it has changed a lot.
Source: TradingView
This weekly chart of crude oil futures above considers almost all options that are mentioned in the poll below except that the oil price will not move.
Before we start, let’s see the whole picture. I added for comparison the annual change in U.S. GDP data in the green line. The correlation is pretty strong as the rising U.S. GDP data is hand in hand with the strengthening oil price and vice versa.
In the past year, the green line has been decreasing and the time lag has thrown a bomb on the oil price only this year as it peaked in the spring and then fell from a $130 price level to the current $80s.

However, that is not enough to catch the GDP data and there is still a long way to go as it corresponds to the oil price of $47. This level is fortified with the Giant Falling Wedge, which used to be resistance around the $50 mark.
The moving average (purple) is still a valid barrier at $94 since it has held the oil price twice.
The RSI did it as well, as the reading is below the crucial 50 level.
The game is now between the “hammer” of the moving average ($94) and the “anvil” of U.S. GDP data ($47). The breakup above the $94 would increase the gap of the market distortion.      The halfway point at $62 is located right at the top of the largest volume area (orange). There are no other significant levels above it.

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Intelligent trades!
Aibek BurabayevINO.com Contributor
Disclosure: This contributor has no positions in any stocks mentioned in this article. This article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. This contributor is not receiving compensation (other than from INO.com) for their opinion.

Crude Oil vs Platinum: You Bet Right Read More »

1 Health Care Stock For The Long Term

Following the global pandemic, the healthcare sector is finding new avenues and accelerating diversification strategies to drive growth. Moreover, the healthcare industry has an aging population in its favor. The median human age in 2022 is 30.2 years compared to 20.6 years in 1974.
Many countries have launched policies to fix the aging population and stagnation challenges.

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With a market capitalization of $259.40 billion, healthcare stalwart Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK) continues strengthening its pipeline through trials, approvals, and collaborations. KEYTRUDA, an oncological drug, primarily drove the company’s business momentum.
Additionally, the company is looking to bolster its oncological pipeline. Last month, MRK and Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) announced that MRK had exercised its option to jointly develop and commercialize a personalized cancer vaccine (PCV). The costs and profits of this collaboration are expected to be shared by the companies.
On top of that, in September, MRK’s Animal Health segment acquired Vence, a virtual fencing innovator for rotational grazing and livestock management, thereby broadening its portfolio.
The company has also raised its expected full-year 2022 worldwide sales to a range of $58.5-$59.0 Billion, reflecting a growth of 20-21%. The company also raised its full-year 2022 non-GAAP EPS outlook to a range of $7.32-$7.37.
The stock has gained 23.9% over the past year and 33.5% year-to-date to close its last trading session at $102.31. It has gained 8.7% over the past month and is trading higher than its 50-day and 200-day moving averages of $92.71 and $87.87, respectively.
Source: MarketClub
Here are the factors that could influence MRK’s performance:
Sound Financial Growth
For the fiscal third quarter of 2022, MRK’s sales increased 14% year-over-year to $14.96 billion. Excluding certain items, its non-GAAP net income and non-GAAP EPS came in at $4.7 billion and $1.85, respectively, up about 4% from their year-ago values.
Growth in oncology was driven by revenues from KEYTRUDA, which increased approximately 20% from the prior-year period to $5.43 billion, while growth in vaccines was mainly due to higher GARDASIL / GARDASIL 9 sales, which grew 15% year-over-year to $2.29 billion.
Discounted Valuation
In terms of its forward P/E, MRK is trading at 17.21x, 31.7% lower than the industry average of 25.21x. The stock’s forward non-GAAP PEG multiple of 1.36 is 24.8% lower than the industry average of 1.80.
In terms of its forward EV/EBIT, the stock is trading at 12.16x, 30.6% lower than the industry average of 17.52x. Its forward Price/ Cash Flow multiple of 13.05 is 21.2% lower than the industry average of 16.56.
Strong Past Growth
MRK’s revenue grew at an 8.7% CAGR over the past three years and an 8.2% CAGR over the past five years. In the last three years, its EBIT and net income grew at CAGRs of 10.7% and 17.9%, respectively. Its EPS also increased at an 18.8% CAGR over the same period.
Favorable Analyst Estimates
The consensus EPS estimate for the current year (fiscal 2022) of $7.38 indicates a 22.6% year-over-year improvement. Likewise, the consensus revenue estimate of $59.11 billion for the same year reflects a rise of 21.4% from the prior year. Moreover, analysts expect MRK’s EPS to grow 11.1% per annum over the next five years.
Attractive Dividend Growth
In July, MRK declared a dividend of $0.69 per share of the company’s common stock for the fourth quarter of 2022. Its annual dividend of $2.76 yields 2.7% on the current share price. It has a four-year average yield of 2.95%.
The company’s dividend payouts have increased at a 9.6% CAGR over the past three years and a 9% CAGR over the past five years. The company grew its dividend payments for 11 consecutive years.
Technical Indicators Look Promising
MarketClub’s Trade Triangles show that MRK has been trending UP for all three-time horizons. The long-term trend has been UP since October 1, 2021, the intermediate-term trend has been UP since October 10, 2022, and the short-term trend has been UP since November 17, 2022.
Source: MarketClub
The Trade Triangles are our proprietary indicators, comprised of weighted factors that include (but are not necessarily limited to) price change, percentage change, moving averages, and new highs/lows. The Trade Triangles point in the direction of short-term, intermediate, and long-term trends, looking for periods of alignment and, therefore, strong swings in price.
In terms of the Chart Analysis Score, another MarketClub proprietary tool, MRK scored +100 on a scale from -100 (strong downtrend) to +100 (strong uptrend), indicating that the stock is in a strong uptrend which is likely to continue. Traders should protect gains and look for a change in score to suggest a slowdown in momentum.

The Chart Analysis Score measures trend strength and direction based on five different timing thresholds. This tool considers intraday price action; new daily, weekly, and monthly highs and lows; and moving averages.
Click here to see the latest Score and Signals for MRK.
What’s Next for Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK)?
Remember, the markets move fast and things may quickly change for this stock. Our MarketClub members have access to entry and exit signals so they’ll know when the trend starts to reverse.
Join MarketClub now to see the latest signals and scores, get alerts, and read member-exclusive analysis for over 350K stocks, futures, ETFs, forex pairs and mutual funds.
Start Your MarketClub Trial
Best,The MarketClub Team[email protected]

1 Health Care Stock For The Long Term Read More »

3 Consumer Stocks For Your Watchlist

Despite inflation moderating slightly for October, the Fed doesn’t seem to be in the mood to pause the interest rate hike just yet. The continued rate hikes might bring further pain for businesses showing signs of a slowdown, with the cut in earnings estimates.
Since the market volatility is unlikely to catch a break anytime soon, shares of fundamentally strong, consumption-driven businesses, with demand and margins immune to an economic slowdown, seem ideal investments for potential upsides while ensuring adequate downside protection.

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Hence, it would be opportune to add BJ’s Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. (BJ), Casey’s General Stores, Inc. (CASY), and Lifeway Foods, Inc. (LWAY) as some technical indicators point to sustained upsides in them amid prevailing uncertainties.
BJ’s Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. (BJ)
BJ operates majorly on the east coast of the United States as a warehouse club operator. The company offers a curated assortment of perishables and other grocery products, general merchandise, gasoline, and other ancillary services.

Over the last three years, BJ’s revenues grew at an 11.6% CAGR, while its EBITDA grew at an 18.7% CAGR. The company’s net income grew at a 32.6% CAGR during the same period.
For the fiscal 2022 second quarter, ended July 30, 2022, BJ’s revenue increased 22.2% year-over-year to $5.10 billion, driven primarily by higher gasoline sales. During the same period, the company’s income from continuing operations and adjusted EBITDA increased 27% and 24.3% year-over-year to $141.01 million and $273.7 million, respectively.
BJ’s adjusted net income for the quarter came in at $144.30 million or $1.06 per share, up 27.3% and 29.3% year-over-year, respectively.
Analysts expect BJ’s revenue and EPS for the fiscal year ending January 2023 to increase 14.8% and 11% year-over-year to $19.13 billion and $3.61, respectively. Both metrics are expected to keep growing over the next two fiscals. Moreover, the company has impressed by surpassing consensus EPS estimates in each of the trailing four fiscals.
Owing to its strong performance and solid growth prospects, BJ is currently commanding a premium valuation compared to its peers. In terms of forward P/E, BJ is currently trading at 21.75x compared to the industry average of 18.98x. Also, its forward EV/EBITDA multiple of 14.07 compares to the industry average of 11.63.
BJ’s stock is currently trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages of $75.09 and $67.57, respectively, indicating a bullish trend. It has gained 10.4% over the past month and 19.3% year-to-date to close the last trading session at $78.36.
MarketClub’s Trade Triangles show that BJ’s long-term trend has been UP since July 22, 2022, while its intermediate-term trend has been UP since October 27, 2022. However, its short-term trend has been DOWN since November 11.
Source: MarketClub
The Trade Triangles are our proprietary indicators, comprised of weighted factors that include (but are not necessarily limited to) price change, percentage change, moving averages, and new highs/lows. The Trade Triangles point in the direction of short-term, intermediate, and long-term trends, looking for periods of alignment and, therefore, strong swings in price.
In terms of the Chart Analysis Score, another MarketClub proprietary tool, BJ scored +55 on a scale from -100 (strong downtrend) to +100 (strong uptrend), indicating that the stock cannot gain momentum in either direction.

The Chart Analysis Score measures trend strength and direction based on five different timing thresholds. This tool takes into account intraday price action, new daily, weekly, and monthly highs and lows, and moving averages.
Click here to see the latest Score and Signals for BJ.
Casey’s General Stores, Inc. (CASY)
CASY operates convenience stores in the United under the Casey’s and Casey’s General Store names. It offers a selection of food, beverages, tobacco and nicotine products, health and beauty aids, automotive products, and other non-food items.
Over the last three years, CASY’s revenues grew at a 19.3% CAGR, while its EBITDA grew at a 13.7% CAGR. The company’s net income grew at a 19.4% CAGR during the same period.
For the first quarter of fiscal 2023 ended July 31, 2022, CASY’s total revenue increased 40% year-over-year to $4.46 billion due to strong inside sales driven by prepared food and dispensed beverages.
During the same period, CASY’s adjusted EBITDA grew 20.6% year-over-year to $293.21 million because of robust fuel margins as wholesale costs declined from record highs. The company’s quarterly net income increased 28.3% from the year-ago period to $152.93 million, up 28.2% year-over-year.
Analysts expect CASY’s revenue for the fiscal year 2023 to increase 22.6% year-over-year to $15.87 billion. The company’s EPS for the same period is expected to grow 10.6% year-over-year to $10.07. Moreover, the company has surpassed the consensus EPS estimates in three of the trailing four quarters.
In terms of forward P/E, CASY is currently trading at 23.48x compared to the industry average of 18.98x. Also, its forward EV/EBITDA multiple of 11.53 compares to the industry average of 11.63.
CASY’s stock is currently trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages of $215.81 and $202.84, respectively. It has gained 16.8% over the past month and 22% year-to-date to close the last trading session at $240.59.
MarketClub’s Trade Triangles show that CASY has been trending UP for all three-time horizons. The long-term trend for CASY has been UP since April 6, 2022. Its intermediate and short-term trends have been UP since October 18 and November 8, respectively.
Source: MarketClub
In terms of the Chart Analysis Score, another MarketClub proprietary tool, CASY scored +90 on a scale from -100 (strong downtrend) to +100 (strong uptrend), indicating that it is in a strong uptrend that is likely to continue. Traders should use caution and utilize a stop order.

Click here to see the latest Score and Signals for CASY.
Lifeway Foods, Inc. (LWAY)
LWAY is a global producer and marketer of probiotic products. The company primarily offers drinkable kefir, a cultured dairy product, in various organic and non-organic sizes. Other offerings include European-style soft cheeses, cream, and other products.
Over the last three years, LWAY’s revenue has grown at a 13.5% CAGR, while its EBITDA grew at a 70.7% CAGR.For the third quarter of fiscal 2022, ended September 30, LWAY’s net sales increased 29.1% year-over-year to $38.14 million due to the company’s focus on the core Kefir business. During the same period, the company’s gross profit increased 8.5% year-over-year to $7.59 million.
LWAY’s net income for the quarter increased 104.8% year-over-year to $983 thousand, or $0.06 per share, up 100% year-over-year.
Analysts expect LWAY’s revenue and EPS for the fiscal ending December 2023 to increase 5% and 375% year-over-year to $152 million and $0.38.
In terms of the forward EV/Sales, LWAY is currently trading at 0.81, 52.9% lower than the industry average of 1.71. Also, its forward Price/Sales multiple of 0.67 compares to the industry average of 1.19.
Despite the attractive valuation, LWAY’s stock is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages of $5.93 and $5.80, respectively, indicating a bullish trend. The stock has gained 34.8% over the past month and 48.7% year-to-date to close the last trading session at $7.21.

MarketClub’s Trade Triangles show that LWAY has been trending UP for all three-time horizons. The long-term trend for LWAY has been UP since August 12, 2022. Its intermediate and short-term trends have been UP since November 7 and October 28, 2022, respectively.
Source: MarketClub
In terms of the Chart Analysis Score, another MarketClub proprietary tool, LWAY scored +100 on a scale from -100 (strong downtrend) to +100 (strong uptrend), indicating that the uptrend is likely to continue. Traders should protect gains and look for a change in score to suggest a slowdown in momentum.

Click here to see the latest Score and Signals for LWAY.
What’s Next for These Consumer Stocks?
Remember, the markets move fast and things may quickly change for these stocks. Our MarketClub members have access to entry and exit signals so they’ll know when the trend starts to reverse.
Join MarketClub now to see the latest signals and scores, get alerts, and read member-exclusive analysis for over 350K stocks, futures, ETFs, forex pairs and mutual funds.
Start Your MarketClub Trial
Best,The MarketClub Team[email protected]

3 Consumer Stocks For Your Watchlist Read More »

Walmart Reminds Us Buyback Programs Aren’t Dead

Now that the economy is less rosy looking than a year or two ago, fewer company executives report or discuss share-buyback programs.
However, in the most recent quarterly earnings report from Walmart (WMT) we got just that, a big, new buyback announcement. Wal-Mart announced a new $20 billion share buyback program, and it should be noted that Walmart is currently just a $400 billion company.
While on the surface, a 5% buyback amount may not seem like a lot, if you dig deeper into Walmart, that 5% buyback, in reality, turns into a 10% buyback based on today’s market capitalization. The reason is the Walton family and family trust and foundation control a little more than half of all Walmart shares.
While the family and its Foundation do sell stock from time to time, they have never sold a sizable enough amount to really move the needle. Thus, it is likely that the $20 billion buyback Walmart announced will be purchasing shares not owned by the Walton family and therefore coming from the stock trading on the open market, which is less than 50% of shares outstanding.

Owning a stock like Walmart or, even better, AutoZone (AZO), which has repurchased around 85% of its stock since 1998, can increase the value of your portfolio over decades of ownership. This occurs even when the company you own operates in a boring, slow-growth, or even cyclical industry, like retail.
Now there is some debate about whether or not you would rather have a company you own buy back stock or pay you a larger dividend.
Some investors would instead take a more significant dividend so they can invest it in other stocks, while some investors would rather that money be used to buy back stock.
This is honestly one of those situations where it is more or less a personal decision on which way you would rather a company give you back part of the profits it earns.
A few ways you can invest in companies that participate in share buyback programs is with Exchange Traded Funds. Start by looking at Invesco BuyBack Achievers ETF (PKW) and iShares Core Dividend ETF (DIVB).
Both of these ETFs track US-based companies that have a history of share buybacks. PKW is more focused on share buybacks as it focuses on firms repurchasing at least 5% of their outstanding stock in the previous 12 months, while DIVB owns companies that pay dividends and buyback stock.
Over the last five years, both funds are up slightly more than 11% on a 1-year annualized basis. However, both are down just around 8% year-to-date.
PKW has a 0.64% expense ratio, while DIVB only charges 0.05%. DIVB also has a 1.94% distribution yield, while PKW only pays out 1.08%. PKW is the more pure-play if you want a stock buyback focused ETF, but from the numbers, ie, expense ratio, yield, and even performance, DIVB is probably the better buy at this time.
Another option is the Invesco International BuyBack Achievers ETF (IPKW). IPKW will be very similar to PKW, but it only buys non-US-based companies.
However, the IPKW performance is not very good, both in the short and long terms. IPKW is down 14% year-to-date and only returned 2.35% annualized over the last five years.
The last two ETFs worth looking at are the Pacer U.S. Cash Cows 100 ETF (COWZ) and the FCF US Quality ETF (TTAC).
These two ETFs buy stocks based on their free cash flow. They each look at a broad index of stocks and pick their holdings based on the best companies from a free-cash flow standpoint.
I know what you are thinking, “why would I buy an ETF based on free cash flow when I want share buybacks as my priority.”

Well, if a company has strong free cash flow, it will likely offer a dividend and have a share buyback program in place. Year-to-date TTAC is down just 11%, but COWZ is up 5.66%. Over five years, TTAC is up 11.33% annualized, and COWZ is up 15.18%.
Unfortunately, the only real pure-play share buyback ETF is PKW, and honestly, it isn’t a great option. If you want to own an investment focusing on share buybacks, I would look at individual stocks, such as Walmart or AutoZone, or DIVB and COWZ.
Matt ThalmanINO.com ContributorFollow me on Twitter @mthalman5513
Disclosure: This contributor did not hold a position in any investment mentioned above at the time this blog post was published. This article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. This contributor is not receiving compensation (other than from INO.com) for their opinion.

Walmart Reminds Us Buyback Programs Aren’t Dead Read More »

No-Brainer Stock For A Hawkish Fed

The multi-decade high inflation has kept the stock market under pressure since the beginning of the year. The Federal Reserve has been busy trying to tame persistent inflation through aggressive interest rate hikes.
After raising the benchmark interest rate six times this year, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has cautioned that the final level of interest rates would be higher than expected.
Despite the overall macroeconomic uncertainty, leading foodservice retailer McDonald’s Corporation (MCD) reported impressive financials for the third quarter ended September 30, 2022. The company operates and franchises McDonald’s restaurants with nearly 40,000 locations in over 100 countries.

MCD beat the consensus EPS and revenue estimates in the last reported quarter. Its EPS and revenue were 3.9% and 3% above analyst estimates, respectively. The company’s global comparable sales rose 9.5% year-over-year, while the U.S. comparable sales increased 6.1%. According to Placer.ai., visits to the Chicago-based chain’s U.S. restaurants rose 6.2% in September, compared to the traffic to the quick-service restaurant space rising just 0.8%.
The company’s impressive comparable sales and profit were supported by higher menu prices and increased restaurant traffic. Surging commodity and labor costs led to the company raising the prices of its burgers and fries, but customers flocked to the fast-food chain for its value meals.
MCD Chief Financial Officer Ian Borden said, “We’re gaining share right now among low-income consumers” in the United States. Borden expects the company to ride out the expected recession next year by relying on digital orders and delivery.
MCD’s President and CEO Chris Kempczinski said, “Our third quarter 2022 performance demonstrated broad-based business momentum as global comparable sales increased nearly 10%. I remain confident in our Accelerating the Arches strategy as our teams around the world continue to execute at a high level.”
“As the macroeconomic landscape continues to evolve and uncertainties persist, we are operating from a position of competitive strength. I also want to thank our franchisees, who have done a tremendous job navigating this environment, while providing great value to our customers,” he added.
MCD’s strong fundamentals allowed it to raise dividends for 46 consecutive years. Its dividend payouts have increased at a 6% CAGR over the past three years and an 8% CAGR over the past five years. Its current dividend yield is 2.27%, while its four-year average yield is 2.27%.
The stock has declined 0.1% in price year-to-date, while it has gained 5.9% over the past year to close the last trading session at $267.84.
Source: MarketClub
Here’s what could influence MCD’s performance in the upcoming months:
Robust Financials
MCD’s revenues from franchised restaurants increased 4.6% year-over-year to $3.67 billion for the third quarter ended September 30, 2022. Its total operating costs and expenses declined 3.3% year-over-year to $3.10 billion. The company’s non-GAAP net income for nine months ended September 30, 2022, increased 5.3% year-over-year to $5.58 billion, and its non-GAAP EPS rose 6.5% year-over-year to $7.51.
Mixed Analyst Estimates
Analysts expect MCD’s EPS for fiscal 2022 and 2023 to increase 7.1% and 5.7% year-over-year to $9.94 and $10.51, respectively. Its revenue for fiscal 2022 is expected to decline 1% year-over-year to $22.98 billion. On the other hand, its revenue for fiscal 2023 is expected to increase 3.1% year-over-year to $23.69 billion. It has surpassed Street EPS estimates in three of the trailing four quarters.
High Profitability
In terms of the trailing-12-month gross profit margin, MCD’s 56.13% is 56.9% higher than the 35.78% industry average. Likewise, its 51.82% trailing-12-month EBITDA margin is 361.5% higher than the industry average of 11.23%. Furthermore, the stock’s 8.84% trailing-12-month Capex/Sales is 193.6% higher than the industry average of 3.01%.
Technical Indicators Show Promise
According to MarketClub’s Trade Triangles, the long-term trend for MCD has been UP since October 28, 2022, and its intermediate-term trend has been UP since October 18, 2022. However, the stock’s short-term trend has been DOWN since November 10, 2022.
Source: MarketClub
The Trade Triangles are our proprietary indicators, comprised of weighted factors that include (but are not necessarily limited to) price change, percentage change, moving averages, and new highs/lows. The Trade Triangles point in the direction of short-term, intermediate, and long-term trends, looking for periods of alignment and, therefore, intense swings in price.

In terms of the Chart Analysis Score, another MarketClub proprietary tool, MCD, scored +85 on a scale from -100 (strong downtrend) to +100 (strong uptrend), indicating short-term weakness. However, investors could look for the longer-term bullish trend to resume.

The Chart Analysis Score measures trend strength and direction based on five different timing thresholds. This tool considers intraday price action; new daily, weekly, and monthly highs and lows; and moving averages.
Click here to see the latest Score and Signals for MCD.
What’s Next for McDonald’s Corporation (MCD)?
Remember, the markets move fast and things may quickly change for this stock. Our MarketClub members have access to entry and exit signals so they’ll know when the trend starts to reverse.
Join MarketClub now to see the latest signals and scores, get alerts, and read member-exclusive analysis for over 350K stocks, futures, ETFs, forex pairs and mutual funds.
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Best,The MarketClub Team[email protected]

No-Brainer Stock For A Hawkish Fed Read More »

3 Stocks To Benefit from the Recent Rate Hike

High inflation has been a problem for the economy this year. Although the consumer price index (CPI) eased slightly in October, it remains way above the Fed’s 2% long-term target.
The Federal Reserve has been trying to combat runaway inflation by draining liquidity from the financial system by hiking the benchmark interest rates and selling off a significant part of its bond portfolio.
The Fed has raised the benchmark interest rate six times this year, with the fourth consecutive 75 basis point rate hike taking the target range to 3.75%-4%.
Bankrate’s chief financial analyst Greg McBride said, “A fourth consecutive rate hike of 0.75 percent – after going 28 years without one that large – speaks to the urgency of the Fed’s task.” “They’re still playing catch-up against inflation that continues to run near 40-year highs,” he added.

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Concerns over rising borrowing costs have led to volatility in the stock market. However, not all sectors suffer from rising interest rates. Financial institutions, including banks, usually benefit from rising interest rates as it helps them expand their interest income.

Therefore, it could be wise to make the most of the strong uptrend in bank stocks JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), Morgan Stanley (MS), and The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS).
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM)
JPM is engaged in investment banking, financial services, and asset management. It operates in four segments, as well as a Corporate segment. The company’s segments are Consumer & Community Banking, Corporate & Investment Bank, Commercial Banking, and Asset Management.
Over the last three years, JPM’s revenue grew at a 3.9% CAGR, while its EPS grew at a 5.3% CAGR.
JPM’s total net revenue for the third quarter ended September 30, 2022, increased 10.3% year-over-year to $32.71 billion. The company’s net interest income increased 33.9% year-over-year to $17.51 billion. In addition, its net income increased 12.6% sequentially to $9.73 billion.
Analysts expect JPM’s revenue for the quarter ending December 31, 2022, to increase 15.9% year-over-year to $33.92 billion. Its EPS for the quarter ending March 31, 2023, is expected to increase 27.2% year-over-year to $3.35.
JPM’s stock is trading at a premium, indicating high expectations regarding the company’s performance in the upcoming quarters. In terms of forward non-GAAP P/E, JPM is trading at 11.49x, 9.5% higher than the industry average of 10.49x. Also, it is trading at a forward P/S multiple of 3.07, compared to the industry average of 2.90.
The stock is currently trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages of $116.73 and $124.72, respectively, indicating a bullish trend. It has gained 28.7% over the past month to close the last trading session at $135.08.
According to MarketClub’s Trade Triangles, JPM has been trending UP for all the three-time horizons. The long-term trend for JPM has been UP since October 26, 2022, while its intermediate-term and short-term trends have been UP since October 17, 2022, and October 13, 2022, respectively.
Source: MarketClub
The Trade Triangles are our proprietary indicators, comprised of weighted factors that include (but are not necessarily limited to) price change, percentage change, moving averages, and new highs/lows. The Trade Triangles point in the direction of short-term, intermediate, and long-term trends, looking for periods of alignment and, therefore, intense swings in price.
In terms of the Chart Analysis Score, another MarketClub proprietary tool, JPM, scored +100 on a scale from -100 (strong downtrend) to +100 (strong uptrend), indicating that the uptrend will likely continue. Traders should protect gains and look for a change in score to suggest a slowdown in momentum.

The Chart Analysis Score measures trend strength and direction based on five different timing thresholds. This tool considers intraday price action; new daily, weekly, and monthly highs and lows; and moving averages.
Click here to see the latest Score and Signals for JPM.
Morgan Stanley (MS)
MS is a global financial services company that provides a range of investment banking, securities, wealth management, and investment management services. Its segments include Institutional Securities, Wealth Management, and Investment Management.
Over the last three years, MS grew its revenue at a 12.2% CAGR, while its net income grew at a 14.4% CAGR.MS’ net revenues declined 12% year-over-year to $12.98 billion for the third quarter ended September 30, 2022.
Its interest income increased 160% year-over-year to $6.10 billion. The company’s total non-interest expenses declined 3% year-over-year to $9.56 billion. In addition, its net income applicable to Morgan Stanley increased 5% sequentially to $2.63 billion. Also, its adjusted EPS came in at $1.53, representing an increase of 6% sequentially.
For the quarter ending June 30, 2023, MS’ EPS and revenue are expected to increase 19.3% and 7.9% year-over-year to $1.83 and $14.17 billion, respectively. It surpassed Street EPS estimates in three of the trailing four quarters.
Due to its bright prospects, MS’ stock currently commands a premium valuation. In terms of non-GAAP P/E, MS is currently trading at 13.58x, 29.4% higher than the 10.49x industry average. Its non-GAAP PEG multiple of 4.53 is 298.6% higher than the 1.14 industry average. Also, it is trading at a forward P/B multiple of 1.63, compared to the industry average of 1.31.
MS’ stock is currently trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages of $82.79 and $85.45, respectively, indicating a bullish trend. It has gained 13.2% over the past month to close the last trading session at $88.80.
Trade Triangles show that MS has been trending UP for all three-time horizons. The long-term and intermediate-term trends for MS have been UP since August 10, 2022, and October 31, 2022, respectively. Its short-term trend has been UP since November 10, 2022.
Source: MarketClub
In terms of the Chart Analysis Score, MS scored +100 on a scale from -100 (strong downtrend) to +100 (strong uptrend), indicating that the uptrend will likely continue.

Click here to see the latest Score and Signals for MS.
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS)
GS is a global financial institution that delivers a range of financial services across investment banking, securities, investment management, and consumer banking to a diversified client base that includes corporations, financial institutions, governments, and individuals. The company operates through four segments: Investment Banking, Global Markets, Asset Management, and Consumer & Wealth Management.
Over the last three years, GS grew its revenue at a 12% CAGR, while its net income grew at a 15.1% CAGR.GS’ total net revenues declined 12% year-over-year to $11.97 billion for the third quarter ended September 30, 2022.
Its net interest income increased 30.6% year-over-year to $2.04 billion. The company’s cash and cash equivalents, ending balance for nine months ended September 30, 2022, increased 34.2% year-over-year to $284.25 billion.
Analysts expect GS’ EPS for the quarter ending June 30, 2023, to increase 14.7% year-over-year to $8.86. Its revenue for the quarter ending March 31, 2023, is expected to increase 2.9% year-over-year to $13.31 billion. It surpassed consensus EPS estimates in three of the trailing four quarters.
In terms of forward non-GAAP P/E, GS is trading at 11.08x, 5.6% higher than the industry average of 10.49x. On the other hand, it is trading at a forward P/S multiple of 2.77, compared to the industry average of 2.90. Also, its 1.22x forward P/B is 6.8% below its industry average of 1.31x.
The stock is currently trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages of $324.23 and $325.24, respectively, indicating a bullish trend. It has gained 25.9% over the past month to close the last trading session at $378.31.

According to Trade Triangles, GS has been trending UP for all the three-time horizons. The long-term trend for GS has been UP since August 3, 2022, while its intermediate-term and short-term trends have been UP since October 18, 2022, and October 14, 2022, respectively.
Source: MarketClub
In terms of the Chart Analysis Score, GS scored +100 on a scale from -100 (strong downtrend) to +100 (strong uptrend), indicating that the uptrend will likely continue.

Click here to see the latest Score and Signals for GS.
What’s Next for These Bank Stocks?
Remember, the markets move fast and things may quickly change for these stocks. Our MarketClub members have access to entry and exit signals so they’ll know when the trend starts to reverse.
Join MarketClub now to see the latest signals and scores, get alerts, and read member-exclusive analysis for over 350K stocks, futures, ETFs, forex pairs and mutual funds.
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Best,The MarketClub Team[email protected]

3 Stocks To Benefit from the Recent Rate Hike Read More »

1 Retail Stock To Avoid This Holiday Season

Shares of sporting goods retailer DICK’S Sporting Goods, Inc. (DKS) have declined 24.4% over the past year and 11.2% year-to-date. However, it has gained 4.2% over the past three months to close the last trading session at $102.17.
Source: MarketClub
Recently DKS announced the launch of DSG Ventures, a $50 million in-house fund to invest in innovative sports-related companies like itself.
Ed Stack, DKS’ Executive Chairman, said, “DSG Ventures will enable us to give back and help support entrepreneurs achieve their dreams through our connections, experience, and support. We know that DSG Ventures (and our partners) will bring innovative products, services, and experiences to athletes worldwide.”

However, the macroeconomic headwinds could mar DKS’ business growth. Amid the sky-high inflation and rising recession possibilities, consumers are hesitant to spend on discretionary items even before the holiday season.
Leo Feler, the chief economist at market researcher Numerator, said, “It’s food, it’s medical care, it’s housing and shelter costs. It’s essential services such as veterinary care, and child care. All of these things come first before consumers buy holiday gifts.”
Furthermore, U.S. holiday sales are expected to rise at a slower pace this year. The National Retail Federation (NRF) forecast holiday sales, including e-commerce, to rise between 6% and 8% compared to a 13.5% jump last year and a 9.3% increase in 2020 when supply chain issues and pandemic-related uncertainties weighed on.

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Here’s what could influence DKS’ performance in the upcoming months:
Bleak Financials
DKS’ net sales came in at $3.11 billion for the second quarter that ended July 30, 2022, down 5% year-over-year. Its gross profit declined 14.2% year-over-year to $1.12 billion.
Also, its non-GAAP net income came in at $318.50 million, down 36.4% year-over-year. Its non-GAAP EPS declined 27.6% year-over-year to $3.68.
Mixed Analyst Sentiment
DKS’ revenue is expected to decline 3.4% year-over-year to $11.87 billion in 2023 but increase 2.4% year-over-year to $12.16 billion in 2024.
Moreover, its EPS is expected to fall 27.5% year-over-year to $11.38 in 2023 but rise 2.9% year-over-year to $11.71 in 2024. However, its EPS is estimated to decrease 7.9% per annum in the next five years.
Mixed Profitability
DKS’ trailing-12-month gross profit margin of 37.12% is 3% higher than the industry average of 36.08%.
However, its trailing-12-month CAPEX/Sales of 2.59% is 13.5% lower than the industry average of 2.99%.
Lack of Momentum in Either Direction
With the raging inflation reducing consumers’ spending power, DKS is struggling to maintain its sales. The uncertain macroeconomic outlook and optimism over the holiday season contradict each other, leaving DKS without a clear direction.
According to MarketClub’s Trade Triangles, the long-term and short-term trends for DKS have been UP since August 8, 2022, and November 10, 2022. However, its intermediate-term trend has been DOWN since November 8, 2022.
Source: MarketClub
The Trade Triangles are our proprietary indicators, comprised of weighted factors that include (but are not necessarily limited to) price change, percentage change, moving averages, and new highs/lows. The Trade Triangles point in the direction of short-term, intermediate, and long-term trends, looking for periods of alignment and, therefore, intense swings in price.

In terms of the Chart Analysis Score, another MarketClub proprietary tool, DKS, scored -55 on a scale from -100 (strong downtrend) to +100 (strong uptrend), indicating that the stock is struggling to gain momentum in either direction. It could be wise to sit on the sidelines until a clear trend is identified.

The Chart Analysis Score measures trend strength and direction based on five different timing thresholds. This tool considers intraday price action; new daily, weekly, and monthly highs and lows; and moving averages.
Click here to see the latest Score and Signals for DKS.
What’s Next for DICK’S Sporting Goods, Inc. (DKS)?
Remember, the markets move fast and things may quickly change for this stock. Our MarketClub members have access to entry and exit signals so they’ll know when the trend starts to reverse.
Join MarketClub now to see the latest signals and scores, get alerts, and read member-exclusive analysis for over 350K stocks, futures, ETFs, forex pairs and mutual funds.
Start Your MarketClub Trial
Best,The MarketClub Team[email protected]

1 Retail Stock To Avoid This Holiday Season Read More »

Is The Bitcoin Crash Over?

The cryptocurrency Bitcoin hit its most recent all-time high just over a year ago, on November 10th, 2021, at $69,000 per coin. More recently, Bitcoin was trading in the $16,000 range, that’s more than a 76% decline.
Long-term Bitcoin bulls will be quick to point out that since its inception, Bitcoin has experienced other declines that fall within the same percentage drops. However, knowing that type of move has happened in the past, and the cryptocurrency rallied back probably doesn’t help those who bought Bitcoin up at the highs feel much better about their investment.
But what about if you have been sitting on the sideline, waiting for the right time to buy Bitcoin? Is today a good time to buy the cryptocurrency?
For all the bulls out there, I already know I have been wrong about Bitcoin in the past, and I am wrong again this time. But hear me out before you write me off. I believe there are a few reasons why we have not seen the bottom of the current Bitcoin crash.

First and foremost, we are heading straight toward a recession. You may not want to believe it or face reality. Still, it is coming.
Just last week, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell told investors that the likelihood of a soft landing was rapidly diminishing. Inflation is still high, and Fed Members have made it clear that bringing down inflation is the most important problem to tackle now. And despite interest rates at levels we have not seen in a decade, the Fed believes we will still need more increases in the coming months.
The coming recession is important for Bitcoin’s price because up until this point, Bitcoin has not proven to be a “safe haven” asset.
Furthermore, even gold, an investment that most investors would consider pumping money into during uncertain economic times, has not been rallying during this market downturn.
Many investors point to the fact that the dollar has strengthened as one reason why gold and cryptocurrencies are down. A strong dollar could be due to Treasury bonds paying higher and higher yields. The world considers the US Treasury Bond as the baseline for a zero-risk investment. And with T-Bond yields going higher in 2022, investors worldwide have been flocking to both the dollar and T-Bills.
The current economic environment is a classic “risk off” situation, which is precisely what investors are doing — running into the US dollar and Treasury Bonds and fleeing risky technology stocks and cryptocurrencies. If you could get a super safe 4% from a bond right now, why risk losing 50% investing in cryptocurrencies? It doesn’t make sense, which is why Bitcoin is down and will continue to fall until the economy stabilizes.
How long until that happens? Well, for starters, the recession at least needs to begin, or economists must unanimously agree that a recession isn’t in the cards. Either one of those things isn’t likely to happen in the next few days, weeks, or even months.
This means you shouldn’t be in any hurry to buy Bitcoin today.
Today, you could actually still be shorting it with something like the ProShares Short Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITI) or owning puts on the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO).

If you agree with me that we won’t see a Bitcoin rally until we are on the other side of the recession that is being forecasted, get short now and then go long once we can see the light at the end of the recession.
I am not trying to say Bitcoin is going to zero. Or that Bitcoin will never recover. I am trying to point out that today is not a great time to be ‘dip’ buying Bitcoin. There are several reasons why it is not going to rally at this time and perhaps even go lower.
So don’t rush in and buy today; if you are not comfortable shorting it, just sit back and watch as things play out. If you are like most of us, you probably missed Bitcoin’s last rally, and you are OK. So if you miss another one, you will probably still be alright.
Matt ThalmanINO.com ContributorFollow me on Twitter @mthalman5513
Disclosure: This contributor did not hold a position in any investment mentioned above at the time this blog post was published. This article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. This contributor is not receiving compensation (other than from INO.com) for their opinion.

Is The Bitcoin Crash Over? Read More »