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If you believe what the inverted Treasury yield curve is saying, you must believe that, eventually — but probably sooner rather than later — the Federal Reserve will start lowering interest rates in response to the economic recession it will have caused by raising rates by more than 400 basis points in the past year.
But based on the strength of the economy despite those higher rates, it’s looking more like rates well above 4% – and possibly 5% — are going to be around for a long time to come.
But that’s not necessarily such a bad thing. For all those younger than 40, 4-5% long-term interest rates had been the norm for decades.
It’s only in this century that we’ve become accustomed to super-low interest rates, engineered by an activist Fed to insulate consumers and the financial markets from seemingly one financial crisis after another.

But that era looks to be over. And it looks like we’re managing.
Even though inflation appears to have peaked and is moving steadily downward, the Fed is likely to keep rates fairly high for quite a while, certainly the rest of this year and probably 2024 and beyond, absent yet another global financial crisis, to make sure the inflationary beast is truly slayed.
Even on the unlikely chance that the federal government defaults on its debt later this year if Congress can’t agree to raise the debt ceiling, the Fed isn’t likely to start lowering rates for a long time, despite what many investors hope and the inverted yield curve would indicate.
As we know, an inverted yield curve is when short-term rates are higher than long-term rates, which is the exact opposite of the natural order of things.
Long-term debt usually carries higher rates because a lot more can go wrong over, say, 10 or 20 years, than it can over just a couple of years or less. But that’s not what we have now.  
Long-term rates are lower than short-term because bond traders and investors believe that the Fed will throw the economy into recession, and then have to backtrack and start lowering rates, maybe in a year or two.
So better grab those high rates on short-term bonds now because you’re not going to be able to enjoy them for long.
But the economy doesn’t appear to be cooperating. January’s jobs market report was very strong. Employers outside the big tech companies are still in hiring mode.
Economic prospects might not be as vibrant as they were maybe a year or so ago, when we were pulling out of the pandemic lockdown, but they’re still pretty robust. Which means that the Fed is likely to keep rates high for a lot longer than investors believe.
Right now, the economy seems to be surviving. Despite fears that millennials and younger, less experienced, corporate chieftains wouldn’t know how to cope with interest rates that were higher than zero, that doesn’t seem to be the case. Corporate earnings are still pretty strong. Bond defaults are minimal.
So there’s little pressure on the Fed to start lowering interest rates, even as a humanitarian gesture.
Except maybe from the fiscal side of the government.
It hasn’t happened yet, but look for Congress and the White House — despite their avowed reverence for Fed independence — to start ratcheting up the pressure on Fed Chair Jerome Powell to lower rates in order to help manage the ever-burgeoning federal debt load, which is only getting worse the higher and longer interest rates stay elevated, on top of all the other spending lawmakers are enacting.
For the past 20 years or so, Washington has been able to put Modern Monetary Theory — basically, the idea that government deficits and spending don’t matter — into practice because zero percent interest rates engineered by the Fed have enabled it.
But that’s not the case anymore — quite the opposite, in fact.
Higher rates paid by the U.S. Treasury on its debt are only making the deficit even worse. And sorry, folks, extending the debt ceiling isn’t going to much matter, except to once again kick the proverbial can down the road.

We’ll simply have more and more government debt incurring a higher price, which will only balloon the federal debt load at an even faster pace, even without any new spending.
As we already know, most of the federal budget—meaning Social Security, Medicare and the military establishment—have been declared off-limits from spending cuts, which doesn’t leave much else for pruning.
If Powell thought the past five years of his tenure have been pressure-packed, he hasn’t seen nothing yet.
The only way he lowers rates is with a monumental cave-in to both Washington and Wall Street, and right now he doesn’t seem likely to accommodate them.
George YacikINO.com Contributor
Disclosure: This article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. This contributor is not receiving compensation (other than from INO.com) for their opinion.

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The INO.com Team

During his State of the Union address, President Joe Biden noted that the U.S. will still need oil and gas for at least another decade. This comes as the President has pushed for a significant transition in our country to renewable energy.
President Biden has fought against the oil and gas companies since the beginning of his tenure. He has told Americans that we need to reduce our reliance on oil and gas and move towards renewable energy as soon as possible.
The President has pushed for legislation to make renewable energy more affordable. All this while telling oil and gas companies that they need to invest more to grow supply but not offer them the same concessions.
More so, the Biden administration has tried to reduce the number of oil and gas leases the federal government can sell. Thus making it more difficult to increase supply. Some government policies are also making the industry smaller since new and smaller companies are getting squeezed out due to regulations.

I think most people would agree that burning oil and gas is not ideal for the environment and more so that we need to reduce our reliance on foreign oil and gas producers such as Russia (which we primarily have done since the start of the war with Ukraine) and those countries in the middle east that are not so friendly to the U.S.
However, it will be more than even the decade President Biden admitted to in the State of the Union address until we are indeed off the oil and gas addiction our country currently has.
For example, even the most aggressive state legislation coming out of California and New York doesn’t ban the sale of internal combustion engines until 2035, more than a decade from now. While electric vehicle sales rapidly increase in the U.S., they are growing from a super low starting point.
The reality is that the government is making it more difficult for oil and gas companies to expand supply either with laws, not selling leases, or banning gasoline vehicles in the future, making long-term investments less appealing. This inadvertently pushes oil and gas prices higher and makes these companies more profitable.
And remember, this is all during a time when the President, a Democrat, is not ‘pro’ oil and gas. Take a moment to imagine how well the industry could be doing if the President and Congress were both ‘pro’ or even indifferent about the oil and gas industry.
So with that being said, let’s look at a few exchange-traded funds that you can buy today to possibly play the boom the oil and gas industry may be setting up for over the next few decades.
First, we have the U.S. energy ETF by market cap, the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE). XLE has $40.8 billion in assets under management, almost four times that of any other energy-specific focused ETF.
This fund offers excellent liquidity to a market-like basket of U.S. energy companies. The market-like aspect of the fund is crucial because this means the fund essentially only holds the big players in the industry. XLE has been trading since 1998, with an expense ratio of just 0.10%, 25 holdings, and a distribution yield of 3.55%. XLE is up 3.44% year-to-date, 47.9% over the last year, and 8.72% annualized over the previous five years.
Next, we have the iShares U.S. Energy ETF (IYE). IYE has existed since 2000, has $1.88 billion in assets under management, and pays out a 3.27% yield. It tracks a market-cap-weighted index of large-cap U.S. energy companies.
This is different from XLE because IYE owns 43 companies, not just 25 and is not limited to trying to build a ‘market-like’ ETF but just owning the market. Year-to-date, the fund is up 3.12%, 47.04% over the last year, and 7.25% annualized over the previous five years. The biggest downside to IYE is the expense ratio of 0.39%, much higher than XLE’s.
There is always the more refined oil and gas ETF (did you catch that), such as the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP).
These ETFs will only own the exploration and production companies, as opposed to any company operating in the oil and gas industry. XOP has an expense ratio of 0.35%, $3.94 billion in assets under management, 61 holdings, and a yield of 2.37%. XOP has a weighted average market cap of just $36 billion compared to XLEs’ $206 billion and IYE’s $194 billion.
This means XOP is holding much smaller companies than the other two funds. That can be both a good and bad thing. Historically, XOP has performed alright but not great as the fund is up 4.28% year-to-date, 39.3% over the last year, but just 0.13% annualized during the previous five years.
Finally, we have the leveraged options; the ProShares Ultra Oil & Gas ETF (DIG) and MicroSectors U.S. Big Oil Index 3X Leveraged ETN (NRGU).

Dig is a two-times leveraged fund, while NRGU is a three-times leveraged fund. These funds will give you excellent upside exposure to the oil and gas industry since they are leveraged. Still, they can also deteriorate very quickly if the oil and gas industry experiences a downturn.
I believe the oil and gas industry was the tobacco industry during the 1960s. Many people thought the tobacco industry would disappear due to the adverse health effects of the products they were selling, however, here we are 50 years later, and the tobacco stocks are still going strong.
As much as I want an electric vehicle and hate going to the gas station, I don’t see myself, let alone the whole U.S., squashing our oil addiction even over the next two decades.
Matt ThalmanINO.com ContributorFollow me on Twitter @mthalman5513
Disclosure: This contributor did not hold a position in any investment mentioned above at the time this blog post was published. This article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. This contributor is not receiving compensation (other than from INO.com) for their opinion.

2023 has been a great year for investors thus far, with several asset classes enjoying double-digit year-to-date percentage gains, including the Nasdaq 100 Index (QQQ).
While it may be lagging short-term after a strong November and December, the strongest performance has come from the Gold Miners Index (GDX), which outperformed the Nasdaq 100 by more than 3500 basis points in 2022, and is up 46% off its Q3 2022 lows.
Following this strong rally in the GDX and a surge in optimism among investors, some consolidation or a deeper pullback would not be surprising.
However, it’s worth building a watchlist of undervalued now to prepare for sharp pullbacks, assuming these stocks retreat into a low-risk buy zone.

In this update, we’ll look at two gold names still trading at deep discounts to fair value and highlight their low-risk buy zones:
Argonaut Gold (ARNGF)
Argonaut Gold (ARNGF) is a gold producer with a market cap of $430 million and was a name I highlighted in November as one to keep a very close eye on, and I stated the following:

To summarize, this pullback in the stock has provided a fire sale, and I don’t recall the last time I saw sentiment this bad for a producer in years.

Since that update, the stock has soared by more than 60% and is one of the top-performing gold producers by a wide margin.
This is partially attributed to the strong recovery in the gold price that has placed a relentless bid on gold miners but also due to several positive developments.
The major one worth discussing is the appointment of a new Chief Executive Officer, Richard Young, who is well known for transforming Teranga Gold from a junior producer into a $2.0 billion miner before its eventual takeover in late 2020.
This recent development is a huge upgrade to the investment thesis, given that Young is a very competent company builder with a wealth of experience in the sector (30+ years), beginning with Barrick Gold (GOLD) in 1991.
Most importantly though, this transition occurs during a pivotal period for Argonaut Gold as the company is barely two months away from its first gold pour at its Magino Project in Ontario, Canada.
As discussed in my previous update, Magino is a game-changer for the company, given that it will catapult Argonaut from a 250,000-ounce producer to a 370,000 to 400,000-ounce per annum producer, with Magino’s costs set to be well below its current cost profile.
Assuming production comes in as expected (150,000+ ounces per annum at sub $1,000/oz all-in-sustaining costs at Magino in the first five years), we would see Argonaut’s consolidated costs drop from ~$1,600/oz to below $1,375/oz, a significant improvement.
However, with Richard Young on board, I would imagine that the plan could be to divest one or two higher-cost assets and look at expanding production at Magino post-2026.
This would result in a slightly smaller producer but boasting costs more in line with the industry average and with more production coming from Tier-1 jurisdictions (Nevada, Ontario).
For now, it’s still early to speculate, but with ARNGF on track to report $0.28+ in cash flow per share in FY2024, the stock trades at less than 2.0x cash flow, which is far too cheap for a producer of its scale.
This is especially true given that construction is more than 90% complete at Magino, and we often see a re-rating in miners once they move out of a capex-heavy period and into a period where it’s generating significant free cash flow.
So, based on what I believe to be a conservative multiple of 3.0x and FY2024 cash flow per share estimates of $0.28, I see a fair value of $0.84 for its 18-month target price.
That said, when it comes to small-cap producers, I prefer a minimum 45% discount to fair value to justify starting new positions to ensure a meaningful margin of safety.
In the case of Argonaut, this would require a pullback below US$0.46 to place the stock in a low-risk buy zone. In summary, while I am bullish on the stock longer term, I am neutral short-term and waiting for a deeper pullback to add to my position.
Sandstorm Gold Royalties (SAND)
Sandstorm Gold Royalties (SAND) is a $1.6 billion company in the precious metals space. It earns most of its revenue from gold, silver, and copper, with ~90% of its revenue from gold and silver.
The company is unique because it is not a gold producer but a royalty/streaming company, offering superior diversification for investors relative to producers (which typically have fewer than eight producing assets).
These companies also boast higher margins, allowing them to command premium multiples relative to gold producers, with 15-35% operating margins in most cases.
For those unfamiliar with the business model, royalty/streaming companies finance developers and producers in the gold and silver space, giving them capital upfront to build or expand their assets. In exchange, Sandstorm receives either a royalty on the asset over its mine life or a stream on the asset, meaning that Sandstorm has a right to buy a percentage of metal produced at a fixed cost well below the current spot price of gold/silver.
The result is that Sandstorm reported 70% – 80% gross margins over the past five years, with operating margins averaging 34% the past three years despite its relatively small scale (~95,000 gold-equivalent ounces in FY2023).
While there are several royalty/streaming companies to choose from, Sandstorm differentiates itself from its peers, given that it has one of the highest-growth rates sector-wide. This is based on its soft guidance to grow annual attributable production from 82,000 ounces in FY2022 to ~140,000 ounces in FY2025, translating to a 70% growth rate.
If successful, annual cash flow would soar from ~$110 million to ~$190 million, translating to cash flow per share of $0.63 based on ~300 million shares.
Using what I believe to be a conservative multiple of 18x cash flow (given that it is more diversified than most of its peers but has some production coming from less favorable jurisdictions), I see a long-term fair value for Sandstorm of $11.30 (110% upside from current levels).
However, this assumes metals prices remain below $1,850/oz gold and $24.00/oz silver in FY2025.
In a more bullish scenario for metals prices, SAND could generate $0.75 per share in cash in FY2025, translating to a fair value of $13.50.
So, why has the stock underperformed its peers?
With a weaker balance sheet than its peer group ($300+ million in net debt) and the fact that the company just diluted shareholders in its financing in Q4 of last year, the stock is out of favor, and understandably so after the financing came as a major surprise.

Meanwhile, given its higher debt position, Sandstorm may struggle to add new royalties/streams this year because it is laser-focused on reducing its debt load.
However, if we look ahead to 2024/2025, there’s a lot to like here, and Sandstorm is trading at a significant discount to its historical multiple. To summarize, I would view any further weakness in the stock below $5.10 as a buying opportunity.
Several names in the gold sector are now closer to fairly valued after a ~50% rally in the GDX.
However, Sandstorm and Argonaut are two names that continue to trade at attractive valuations with large safety margins.
While I don’t see either stock as a buy this second, I do see them as two of the more undervalued names sector-wide, and I would view pullbacks below $5.10 (Sandstorm) and $0.46 (Argonaut) as buying opportunities.
Disclosure: I am long SAND, ARNGF
Taylor DartINO.com Contributor
Disclaimer: This article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. Taylor Dart is not a Registered Investment Advisor or Financial Planner. This writing is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation to buy, or a recommendation regarding any securities transaction. The information contained in this writing should not be construed as financial or investment advice on any subject matter. Taylor Dart expressly disclaims all liability in respect to actions taken based on any or all of the information in this writing. Given the volatility in the precious metals sector, position sizing is critical, so when buying small-cap precious metals stocks, position sizes should be limited to 5% or less of one’s portfolio.

Personal finance fintech company SoFi Technologies, Inc. (SOFI) reported solid fourth-quarter results.
Its loss per share came below analyst estimates, and its revenue beat the consensus estimate by 4.1%. The company’s adjusted net revenue in the fourth quarter came in 4.2% above its guidance range high of $425 million, and its adjusted EBITDA came $23 million above the high-end of its guidance.
SOFI’s CEO Anthony Noto said, “Record revenue across all three of our business segments – Lending, Technology Platform, and Financial. Our continued strong growth and significant improvement in GAAP net income margin position us very well in 2023 for another year of significant revenue and EBITDA growth and for reaching GAAP net income profitability in the fourth quarter.”
SOFI’s solid results could be attributed to its total deposits, which rose 46% sequentially and more than 700% in 2022 to $7.34 billion. The company benefited from the Fed’s aggressive interest rate hikes leading to its rise in net interest income.

The company added 480K members in the fourth quarter. Its total members came in at 5.22 million, rising 51% year-over-year. It added 695K new products in the fourth quarter, bringing total products to 7.89 million in 2022, increasing 53% year-over-year.
Noto said, “Our strong momentum in member and product adds, and the momentum in products added from cross-buy, reflects the benefits of our broad product suite and Financial Services Productivity Loop (FSPL) strategy.”
“Total deposits at SoFi Bank grew 46% sequentially during the fourth quarter to $7.30 billion at year-end, and 88% of SoFi Money deposits are from direct deposit members. We continued to see nearly half of newly funded SoFi Money accounts set up direct deposit by day 30, and average spend in the fourth quarter rose 25% versus the third quarter. As a result of this growth in high-quality deposits, we are benefiting from a lower cost of funding for our loans,” he added.
For the first quarter of fiscal 2023, the company guided its adjusted net revenue between $430 million to $440 million.
In addition, it expects its adjusted EBITDA to come between $40 million to $45 million. In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2023, the company expects positive GAAP net income and a 20% incremental GAAP net income margin for the full year.
For fiscal 2023, SOFI expects its adjusted net revenue to be between $1.925 billion and $2 billion. Also, the company expects its adjusted EBITDA to come between $260 million to $280 million.
SOFI’s stock has gained 65.8% in price over the past month and 39.2% over the past three months to close the last trading session at $7.46.
Here’s what could influence SOFI’s performance in the upcoming months:
Mixed Financials
SOFI’s adjusted net revenue increased 58.4% year-over-year to $443.42 million for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2022. The company’s adjusted EBITDA rose significantly from the prior-year quarter to $70.06 million.
Its net loss narrowed 64% year-over-year to $40 million. In addition, its loss per share narrowed 67% year-over-year to $0.05.
Mixed Analyst Estimates
Analysts expect SOFI’s EPS for fiscal 2023 to be negative. Its EPS is expected to be positive for fiscal 2024. Its revenue for fiscal 2023 and 2024 is expected to increase 27.5% and 24.1% year-over-year to $1.96 billion and $2.44 billion, respectively. It surpassed Street EPS estimates in each of the trailing four quarters.
Stretched Valuation
In terms of forward P/S, SOFI’s 3.55x is 35.2% higher than the 2.62x industry average. Likewise, its 1.36x forward P/B is 14.7% higher than the 1.19x industry average.
Mixed Profitability
SOFI’s trailing-12-month net income margin of negative 21.09% compares to the 27.51% industry average. Its trailing-12-month Return on Total Assets of negative 1.69% compares to the 1.19% industry average.
On the other hand, its 6.83% trailing-12-month Capex/Sales is 312.6% higher than the industry average of 1.66%. In addition, its 79.38% trailing-12-month gross profit margin is 27.5% higher than the industry average of 62.26% industry average.
Technical Indicators Show Promise
According to MarketClub’s Trade Triangles, the long-term and intermediate-term trends for SOFI have been UP since January 30, 2023, and January 9, 2023, respectively. Its short-term trend has been UP since December 29, 2022.
Source: MarketClub
The Trade Triangles are our proprietary indicators, comprised of weighted factors that include (but are not necessarily limited to) price change, percentage change, moving averages, and new highs/lows. The Trade Triangles point in the direction of short-term, intermediate, and long-term trends, looking for periods of alignment and, therefore, intense swings in price.

In terms of the Chart Analysis Score, another MarketClub proprietary tool, SOFI, scored +90 on a scale from -100 (strong downtrend) to +100 (strong uptrend), indicating that the uptrend will likely continue. While SOFI shows signs of intraday weakness, it remains in the confines of a bullish trend. Traders should use caution and utilize a stop order.

The Chart Analysis Score measures trend strength and direction based on five different timing thresholds. This tool considers intraday price action; new daily, weekly, and monthly highs and lows; and moving averages.
Click here to see the latest Score and Signals for SOFI.
What’s Next for SoFi Technologies, Inc. (SOFI)?
Remember, the markets move fast and things may quickly change for this stock. Our MarketClub members have access to entry and exit signals so they’ll know when the trend starts to reverse.
Join MarketClub now to see the latest signals and scores, get alerts, and read member-exclusive analysis for over 350K stocks, futures, ETFs, forex pairs and mutual funds.
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Best,The MarketClub Team[email protected]

A business with excess cash on its books can return value to shareholders in various ways. One of them is distributing the surplus among shareholders as dividends. However, they are more tax-efficient ways to reward existing shareholders with delayed gratification.
A business can choose to reinvest its earnings into its own business or acquire other businesses to upgrade or expand its operations organically or inorganically to increase its future earnings and consequentially increase the intrinsic value of each of its outstanding shares.
Alternatively, the business may choose to decrease the number of outstanding shares, making each share worth a greater percentage of the corporation. All else being equal, this increases the earnings attributable to each share almost immediately. This method of allocating excess capital is called a buyback.
Buybacks are initiated through tender offers or open market transactions when the management of an organization feels that its shares are undervalued. In addition to signaling financial health and increased confidence in their own prospects, businesses also repurchase their own shares to reduce supply and dilution by shrinking the float to prevent other shareholders from taking a controlling stake.
In a nutshell, a buyback is a way for a business to get its skin deeper in the game with the hope of rewarding investors who choose to keep supporting it.
Can Meta Platforms Be a Good Investment Given Its Buyback Program?
On February 1, Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) announced that it had repurchased $6.91 billion and $27.93 billion of its Class A common stock in the fourth quarter and full year of 2022, respectively.
It also announced a $40 billion increase in its share repurchase authorization, in addition to the $10.87 billion available and authorized for repurchases as of December 31, 2022.
As the parent company of world-renowned social networking platforms, such as Facebook and Instagram, META builds technologies that help people find communities and grow businesses through mobile devices, personal computers, virtual reality (VR) headsets, wearables, and in-home devices. The company operates through two segments: Family of Apps (FoA) and Reality Labs (RL).
According to META founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg, 2023 is the ‘Year of Efficiency’ for the company. To this end, the business has lightened its headcount by about 11,000 while pivoting towards a next-generation data center design, including the cancellation of multiple data center projects. It has also sought to consolidate its capital structure and allocate more efficiently by doubling its share repurchase.
Driven by positive sentiments, the stock has gained 46.7% over the past month to close the last trading session at $186.06.
META is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages of $128.44 and $151.81, respectively, indicating an uptrend.
Here is what may help the stock maintain its performance in the near term.
Solid Track Record
Over the past three years, META’s revenue has exhibited an 18.2% CAGR, while its EBITDA has grown at a 6.8% CAGR.
During the same period, the company has increased its net income at 7.9% CAGR, while its EPS has grown at a 10.1% CAGR due to its expanded buyback program, which began in 2017.
Robust Financials
During the fourth quarter and entire fiscal year, which ended December 31, 2022, META’s revenue came in at $32.17 billion and $116.61 billion, representing 1.5% and 3.9% year-over-year increases, respectively, on a constant currency basis.
The company’s income from operations for the quarter came in at $6.40 billion, while its net income came in at $4.65 million, or $1.76 per share.
META’s total assets stood at $185.73 billion as of December 31, 2022, compared to $165.99 billion as of December 31, 2021. Daily Active People (DAP) and Monthly Active People (MAP) across its family increased 5% year-over-year to 2.96 billion on average for December 2022 and 3.74 billion as of December 31, 2022.
Premium Valuation
Given its increasing usage statistics and a renewed focus on consolidation and efficiency, META is currently commanding a premium compared to its peers. In terms of forward P/E, META is currently trading at 20.04x compared to the industry average of 17.47x.
Moreover, META’s forward EV/Sales and Price/Sales multiples of 3.84 and 3.95 are also higher than the respective industry averages of 2.06 and 1.36.
Favorable Analyst Estimates for Next Year
META’s steady growth and increasing efficiency have led analysts to expect its revenue and EPS to increase 5% to $122.40 billion and $9.02, respectively, for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2023.
Revenue and EPS are expected to increase 11.6% and 23.6% during the next fiscal year to $136.65 and $11.15, respectively.
Technical Indicators Look Promising
MarketClub’s Trade Triangles show that META has been trending UP for each of the three time horizons. The long-term trend has been UP since January 23, 2023, while the intermediate-term and short-term trends have been UP since December 1, 2022, and January 20, 2023, respectively.
Source: MarketClub
The Trade Triangles are our proprietary indicators, comprised of weighted factors that include (but are not necessarily limited to) price change, percentage change, moving averages, and new highs/lows. The Trade Triangles point in the direction of short-term, intermediate, and long-term trends, looking for periods of alignment and, therefore, strong swings in price.
In terms of the Chart Analysis Score, another MarketClub proprietary tool, META scored +90 on a scale from -100 (strong downtrend) to +100 (strong uptrend), indicating that the uptrend will likely continue. While META is showing intraday weakness, it remains in the confines of a bullish trend. Traders should use caution and utilize a stop order.

The Chart Analysis Score measures trend strength and direction based on five different timing thresholds. This tool takes into account intraday price action, new daily, weekly, and monthly highs and lows, and moving averages.
Click here to see the latest Score and Signals for META.
What’s Next for Meta Platforms, Inc. (META)?
Remember, the markets move fast and things may quickly change for this stock. Our MarketClub members have access to entry and exit signals so they’ll know when the trend starts to reverse.
Join MarketClub now to see the latest signals and scores, get alerts, and read member-exclusive analysis for over 350K stocks, futures, ETFs, forex pairs and mutual funds.
Start Your MarketClub Trial
Best,The MarketClub Team[email protected]

Please enjoy this updated version of weekly commentary from the Reitmeister Total Return newsletter. Steve Reitmeister is the CEO of StockNews.com and Editor of the Reitmeister Total Return.
Click Here to learn more about Reitmeister Total Return

The stock market (SPY) has been up, down and all around since last week’s commentary. That’s because bulls and bears are slugging it out for dominance during this “Dazed & Confused” phase for the market.
What does that mean?
What happens next?
What should an investor do about it?
We will explore the answers for each of these pressing questions in this week’s Reitmeister Total Return commentary.
Market Commentary
Now let’s a step back to last week’s commentary where I outlined 4 possible outcomes for the market after the very important Fed rate announcement on Wednesday 2/1. Indeed, we landed on the least of attractive of which. That being…
Scenario 4: Dazed & Confused
“This is where the Fed gives mixed signals. Still hawkish for a long time to save face given previous statements. And yet do tip their hat a little to moderating inflation.
This gray area leads to a trading range until investors have more facts in hand. I suspect that 4,000 is the low end with 4,200 at the high end. This comes hand in hand with a ton of volatility as each new headline has investors recalibrate the bull/bear odds.”
The market since then has lived up to ever single syllable of the above expectations. Especially the part about the volatility that comes after every key headline.
Raging higher after the speech.
Tumbling down Friday & Monday after unemployment report came in WAY TOO HOT pointing to the need for the Fed to stay vigilant against inflation a good while longer.
And then raging higher again today after Chairman Powell’s interview at The Economic Club of Washington D.C.
Watch it here if you like, but to me he just reiterates the point that inflation is too hot and the aforementioned employment report only confirmed that notion. This prompts him to keep rates elevated for much longer than most investors appreciate.
Heck, he even stated that this surprising strength may lead them to be even more hawkish than previously stated. Perhaps that means higher than 5% rates. And perhaps it means they will be at it longer than the end of the year. Perhaps both.
These ideas are very hawkish, increasing the odds of recession, making the Tuesday rally borderline insane. But then again, such was the oddity of the reaction last Wednesday when he said virtually identical things.
Looking ahead the main headline catalysts for stocks will be the following:
2/14 Consumer Price Index
2/15 Retail Sales
2/16 Produce Price Index
That means there is a bit of calm before the next headline storm and thus expect stocks to keep banging around in the 4,000 to 4,200 range for the S&P 500 (SPY) til then.
What is so special about 4,200?
The official definition of a new bull market is when you rise 20% from the lows. In this case the lows from October were 3,491 x 20% = 4,189…which basically equates to 4,200.
Note how we flirted with that level a few times this past week only to find too much resistance.

Here is our game plan from here…
Right now, I see a 65% chance that we devolve back into bear market making new lows in the months ahead. But 35% chance of a soft landing that makes way for the next bull market.
This explains why the Reitmeister Total Return portfolio is currently 36% long the stock market with a blend of Risk On and Risk Off positions.
If and when the bear market comes back with a vengeance, as likely signified by a break back below the 200 day moving average (3,947), then we will get back into our bearish hedge that so successfully gained nearly 7% from August 2022 through year end as the overall stock market slumped.
On the other hand, if instead we break above 4,200 in a meaningful way, then the odds of bull market will have increased…and we will want to come along for the ride by moving up to 50-60% long the stock market. The new additions should be of the Risk On variety (growthy companies at discounted prices with impressive POWR Ratings).
I will end by sharing this analogy.
The investment journey is often like going around a Grand Prix race track. Lots of twist and turns that make us become cautious and slow down. But right after the turns comes the straightaway where we can put the pedal to the metal with greater confidence.
Indeed this is a heck of a tight turn right now as we could break north with bull market or get back on the rougher bearish detour. So hold onto the steering wheel tight right now as there is likely a straightaway on the way that will make our lives easier…and our wallets fatter.
What To Do Next?
Watch my brand new presentation: “Stock Trading Plan for 2023” covering:

Why 2023 is a “Jekyll & Hyde” year for stocks
How the Bear Market Could Come Back with a Vengeance
9 Trades to Profit Now
2 Trades with 100%+ Upside Potential as New Bull Emerges
And Much More!

Watch “Stock Trading Plan for 2023” Now >
Wishing you a world of investment success!
Steve Reitmeister… but everyone calls me Reity (pronounced “Righty”)CEO, StockNews.com & Editor, Reitmeister Total Return

About the Author
Steve is better known to the StockNews audience as “Reity”. Not only is he the CEO of the firm, but he also shares his 40 years of investment experience in the Reitmeister Total Return portfolio. Learn more about Reity’s background, along with links to his most recent articles and stock picks.

The non-farm payrolls report released last Friday dropped a bombshell on the market, revealing the US economy added 517K jobs in January 2023, surpassing expectations of 185K and the highest since July 2022.
Growth was seen in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, health care, government, retail trade, construction, transportation and warehousing, and manufacturing. Despite tech layoffs and potential economic slowdown, the labor market remains tight, with November and December job numbers revised higher.
This was a real shocker that caused huge, unexpected waves of volatility in the markets. Let’s have a look at 1-day futures performance last Friday in the diagram below. It looks like a red sea with a small island covered in green grass.
Chart courtesy: finviz.com
Gasoline, silver and platinum were the ultimate losers that day with massive losses of -5.3%, -5.2% and -5.1% respectively. Gold futures lost huge -2.8% as well. Palladium futures price plummeted -1.8%. Among metals, Copper futures were the most resilient at -1.5%.

The U.S. dollar index definitely took center stage. High hopes for a soft landing for the Fed, supported by a robust labor market, fueled huge demand for the dollar as a rate hike, potentially larger than 0.25%, seems imminent. The DX futures gained +1.2% last Friday.
Last month, I shared my thoughts about the future of the dollar in the post titled “Is Dollar’s Dominance Over?” covering both technical and fundamental factors. The former has shown the bearish scenario and the latter has highlighted the bullish potential.
The majority of readers voted that “the dollar has already peaked”.

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In fact, the 50-day moving average crossed below the 200-day moving average right after the last article about the dollar was published, triggering the bearish “Death Cross” pattern. The dollar index futures have lost almost 3% since that post.  
Last Friday, the DX futures reversed to the upside closing above two earlier small peaks at $102.8. How far it could go to the upside? Let me show you in the quarterly chart of dollar index futures below.
Source: TradingView
This map above was shown to you almost four years ago, on a distant date in 2019.
At $114.2, it reached the preset target set last year located at the same distance as red leg 2 in blue leg 2. The upside of the purple uptrend channel was also there offering a double resistance. At that exact spot, the DX futures reversed and lost quite a bit of value from $114.7 to $100.7, lowest point last week.       
There are two possible paths for the upcoming price move.
Essentially, the red path within the zigzag indicates the possibility of a correction following the first move down that occurred recently. It could reach the “golden ratio” of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level first at $109.4 ahead of the following massive drop to retest the low of 2008 at $71.1.

There are two interim support levels on this path. The first one, located near the $99 handle, is at the bottom of the purple uptrend. The second one is in the valley of a large consolidation around $89.2, preceding the final rally.
The blue path has two targets marked by blue up arrows. The first target, $114.7, is to retest the former top if the Fed raises interest rates past 5% and inflation slows. The second target, $121.3, is the 2001 peak and requires higher demand for the dollar, potentially from a higher real interest rate or a major geopolitical event.

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Intelligent trades!
Aibek BurabayevINO.com Contributor
Disclosure: This contributor has no positions in any stocks mentioned in this article. This article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. This contributor is not receiving compensation (other than from INO.com) for their opinion.

Please enjoy this updated version of weekly commentary from the Reitmeister Total Return newsletter. Steve Reitmeister is the CEO of StockNews.com and Editor of the Reitmeister Total Return.
Click Here to learn more about Reitmeister Total Return

Why are so many investment experts still calling for a bear market?
And just as interesting…why are so many equally talented investors saying the new bull market is already here?
Because investing is an inexact science leading some to rely on economic data…while others prefer to read the charts…or the expression on Powell’s face… or astrology signs or….(fill in the blank with the nuttiest thing you can think of).
So what is an investor to do when there are so many well-reasoned opinions that are giving such contradictory conclusions?
That will be the focus of this week’s commentary.
Market Commentary
I believe the best way to tell this story is from a very personal place. That being where I have an Economics degree and most certainly diagnose the market from a fundamental point of view.
Early on in my career I used to make fun of chartist for playing the market like a video game instead of taking it more seriously with fundamentals. Yet that was quite foolish on my part as I have come to greatly respect many of the leading chartist like Kevin Matras of Zacks and JC Parets of AllStarCharts.com. There is simply no denying their keen insights on market direction.
Now let’s move the conversation forward to Wednesday’s Fed meeting. I was already bearish beforehand…as are the majority of market commentators at this time. And I became even more bearish after the announcement. Amazingly, others saw it differently as stocks 3% from the time of the speech into Thursday’s close.
I went to bad Wednesday night angry, confused, dejected, perplexed, and downright flummoxed.
But then something dawned on me in the early hours and could not get back to sleep. This led to the following trade alert that I sent out to Reitmeister Total Return members on Thursday morning.
I have edited it for the purposes of our conversation today and will follow it up with some additional notes.
[Trade Alert] Less Stubborn Steve
As you likely understood from last night’s commentary, there is no way for me to watch Chairman Powell’s speech yesterday and not be firmly bearish. Keeping hawkish policies in place through the end of the year + 12 months of lagged effects + very weak economic data at the moment = ample window to create recession w/ job loss and lower stock prices in the months ahead.
On the other hand, I want to share with you this conversation from a month ago that haunted me all night leading to this morning’s email. I was asked to provide an answer to the following question:
What’s one lesson you learned in 2022 that you’ll take with you into 2023?
To which I answered: “I finally got bearish in May with the market closer to 4,100. Earlier than most…but later than it needed to be if I focused on the clear break below the 200 day moving average in April around 4,500. Acknowledging that proven signal would have improved my results and will be mindful to heed that warning in the future.”
The only way to rectify these 2 opposing positions is to strike a middle ground. To become less bearish in our portfolio to enjoy more upside if the bulls are correct with their recent rally above the all important 200 day moving average.
Just as important is not becoming so bullish as to have the rug pulled from us on a future date when the economy could tip over into recession with stocks descending once again. The solution is to make the following trades that move us to 36% long the stock market from the previously 0% long bearish hedge.
(trade tickers reserved for Reitmeister Total Return members)
…I could have accomplished the task with many different combinations of trades. So don’t spend too much time thinking about that. If you see another path to get to the same destination then take it. The key is that we are no longer totally bearish. We are now a shade bullish.
If the wisdom of the bull rally grows larger, we will keep ratcheting up our bullishness in the portfolio. Mostly with stocks with top POWR Ratings. Whereas, if we break back below the 200 day moving average, then we will get back in our defensive bearish hedge once again by selling (Risk On assets) and adding back appropriate inverse ETFs.
I absolutely can be a stubborn person with strong convictions. And it would be easy for me to remain bearish given the economic facts as I perceive them.
However, I am also open minded enough to realize when I am being a hypocrite and going against sound logic. (like ignoring the time tested benefits of 200 day moving average breakouts). That is why this is the prudent move that gives us plenty of flexibility to change in the future.
Heck, if the bear market started back in earnest this afternoon…then at only 36% long we would lose a lot less money than most. And as we crossed back over the 200 day moving average reverting back to our bearish hedge would have us producing profits as the market descended lower. That is not so bad for a “worst case” scenario.
However, if the wisdom of the crowd creating this rally is indeed correct, then we will be glad that we started to participate in the upside at this stage instead of much later.
In closing, I want to share this valuable lesson.
The investing world is rarely straight forward. That is why there are so many incredibly intelligent players who have well reasoned views that are 180 degrees opposite of each other. Thus, at its most confusing moments it is often wise to strike a balance as we are doing today.
It is better to be partially right than 100% wrong!
As time rolls on, and greater clarity emerges, it becomes easier to shift to the wisest course of action. For now, we will straddle the bullish and bearish camps by making the 3 trades above. No doubt there will be more trades to come.
Let’s stay nimble with our thoughts and swift with our actions.
(End of 2/2/23 Reitmeister Total Return trade alert)
Taking back to the top…there are many sound opinions from a myriad of seasoned investors. In the end some will be right and others will be wrong.
Your challenge is to determine what to do now.
If you are like me…and realize there is competing sound logic, then you do not have to make a binary, yes/no decision. You can find a nuanced approach that provides appropriate balance.
Just remember you are not married to whatever approach you chose. That’s because your investment strategy should be ever evolving.
Not just about being bullish vs. bearish. But also considering if it is time for…
growth vs. value
large caps vs. small caps
what sectors are hot vs. which are not
I have looked in the mirror and made an appropriate change in my strategy. Time for you to do the same.
What To Do Next?
Watch my brand new presentation: “Stock Trading Plan for 2023” that will help you assess the full bull vs. bear case to create the right trading strategy. It covers vital topics such as…
Why 2023 is a “Jekyll & Hyde” year for stocksHow the Bear Market Could Come Back with a Vengeance9 Trades to Profit Now2 Trades with 100%+ Upside Potential as New Bull EmergesAnd Much More!
Watch “Stock Trading Plan for 2023” Now >
Wishing you a world of investment success!
Steve Reitmeister… but everyone calls me Reity (pronounced “Righty”)CEO, StockNews.com & Editor, Reitmeister Total Return

About the Author
Steve is better known to the StockNews audience as “Reity”. Not only is he the CEO of the firm, but he also shares his 40 years of investment experience in the Reitmeister Total Return portfolio. Learn more about Reity’s background, along with links to his most recent articles and stock picks.

In late January, the world of artificial intelligence went mainstream when popular online media company BuzzFeed announced it was planning to use artificial intelligence software called API to help it generate content.
OpenAI, the company that created API, also made the more popular ChatGPT, released in November of 2022.
API and ChatGPT have been used to write emails and create quizzes and listicles. It has even been used to write reports on popular books and other essay-style assignments for high school and college students.
While we have all heard about the potential of artificial intelligence for years, BuzzFeed taking the plunge and using it to create content is a big deal.

For most of us, this is the first time we can say we are seeing the technology firsthand (well, at least that will be true when we see our first AI-created quiz or article).
Up until now, AI has to most people, just been a pie-in-the-sky idea that we weren’t sure how it was going to affect our lives. Or how we would interact with AI technology on a day-to-day basis.
BuzzFeed using AI, makes it real now.
And now that it is real and not just a research project some technology company in California is spending money on, maybe now is a good time to put some real money into it.
Unfortunately, OpenAI, the creator of these AI chatboxes, is not publicly traded. But, a number of other companies are developing similar technology and are publicly traded.
However, since we are still very much in the infancy stages of AI technology, my suggestion is not to try and cherry-pick the AI winners today but bet on the idea that AI as a technology will prevail. The way to do that is with Exchange Traded Funds.
Exchange Traded Funds that buy companies developing artificial intelligence and robots will expose you to the whole industry but reduce your single stock risk. Let’s take a look at a few ETFs that are focused on AI, and then you can decide which one is right for you.
The first one I would like to point out is the Wisdom Tree Artificial Intelligence and Innovation Fund (WTAI). WTAI tracks an equally-weighted index of global stocks whose businesses are derived from artificial intelligence and innovation.
All companies in the fund need to generate at least 50% of their revenues from AI and innovation activities. The fund has 77 holdings, with the top 10 representing just 20% of the fund, and charges an expense ratio of 0.45%. NVDA and Taiwan Semiconductors are two of the top ten holdings.
These two stocks, for example, highlight that it is difficult to invest in companies that are directly developing AI, but we need semiconductors to operate AI technology. This is just something investors need to be aware of since the industry is still so young.
The next two ETFs are very similar since they both focus on robotics and artificial intelligence. The iShares Robotics and Artificial Intelligence Multisector ETF (IRBO) and the Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF (BOTZ) have expense ratios of 0.47% and 0.68%, respectively.
IRBO has 114 positions, while BOTZ holds just 44 positions. IRBO also has only 12% of the fund’s assets tied up in the top ten holdings, while BOTZ has 67.5% of the assets in the top ten holdings. IRBO also has a better yield, at 0.67%, than BOTZ’s yield of just 0.21%.
Personally, I like IRBO for a number of reasons however BOTZ has been around a few more years and has $1.5 billion in assets, compared to IRBO’s $258 million in assets. Neither fund has a dominating asset amount, but BOTZ is in a much better financial situation.

Three more ETFs that discuss having exposure to artificial intelligence in investment guidelines are the ARK Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF (ARKQ), the ROBO Global Robotics and Automation Index ETF (ROBO), and the ProShares MSCI Transformational Changes ETF (ANEW).
The three funds charge 0.75%, 0.95%, and 0.45%, respectively. ARKQ is the most focused with 39 holdings, while ANEW has 169 positions, but even still, ANEW’s top ten holdings represent 23% of the assets.
Since the AI industry is still very much in its infancy stage, finding good AI-focused ETFs is difficult today, but it will get better in the future.
Regardless, that doesn’t stop you from buying into an industry that could literally change the world someday.
Matt ThalmanINO.com ContributorFollow me on Twitter @mthalman5513
Disclosure: This contributor did not hold a position in any investment mentioned above at the time this blog post was published. This article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. This contributor is not receiving compensation (other than from INO.com) for their opinion.