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For the past two years, investors in the precious metals complex have watched nearly every commodity race higher, with oil, coffee, orange juice and copper up significantly from their 2021 lows.
Unfortunately, gold (GLD) and silver (SLV) were both left in the dust after topping in August 2020 and February 2021, respectively.
And for investors looking for leverage to the metals, the corrections were even more painful in the mining stocks, with the GDX sliding over 50% from its highs above $45.00 per share set in August 2020.
Fortunately, we’ve since seen a reversal to this trend. Not only is gold knocking on the door of a new all-time high, but silver is outperforming over the past month, up over 35% from its lows after making a new year-to-date high above $25.00/oz.
This has lit a fire under several silver miners, with their margins set to improve by over 50% based on AISC margins of ~$6.00/oz in FY2022, and the potential to enjoy margins closer to $9.00/oz if the silver price averages $25.00/oz this year.

In this update, we’ll look at two silver miners that are still trading well off their 2020/2021 highs and look to be solid buy-the-dip candidates:
Pan American Silver (PAAS)
Pan American Silver (PAAS) is a $7.0 billion gold and silver producer with a production profile of approximately ~1.5 million gold-equivalent ounces [GEOs] after acquiring Yamana’s South American assets last year.
This makes it one of the largest producers sector-wide and the acquisition solidifies its spot as a top silver producer, with the company expected to produce ~28 million ounces of silver in 2024, and this excludes the massive Escobal Mine which has the potential to produce ~20 million ounces of silver if it is restarted.
The major benefits of the acquisition were that Pan American improved its diversification by adding new assets in Brazil (Jacobina), Argentina (Cerro Moro), plus two assets in Chile (El Penon, Minera Florida).
Notably, these assets are lower-cost than Pan American’s current production profile, and the company also added a majority stake in the MARA Project in Argentina, a massive copper-gold-molybdenum project that is capable of producing 530 million copper-equivalent pounds on a 100% basis. This is equivalent to $1.2 billion in annual revenue or ~600,000 gold-equivalent ounces.
Despite this significant upgrade to the investment thesis following the acquisition of most of Yamana’s assets, Pan American Silver continues to trade at a lower valuation than it did at its peak in August 2020, yet it’s added over $4.0 billion in net asset value. This is a significant disconnect and Pan American Silver continues to be one of the cheapest ways to get silver exposure, with the company trading at barely 3x sales assuming we see no further upside in metals prices.
Plus, there are multiple projects not accounted for in FY2023 sales and cash flow estimates, including Escobal, MARA, La Arena Sulphides, and La Colorada Skarn, with a combined value for these projects of more than $3.0 billion [US$8.00 per share].
Based on what I believe to be a fair multiple of 11.0x cash flow and FY2024 cash flow per share estimates of $2.48, I see a fair value for PAAS of $27.30, pointing to 43% upside from current levels.
In addition, investors are getting an attractive ~2.0% dividend yield at current levels, pushing the total return closer to 45%.
So, with over 40% upside to fair value to its 18-month target price, and this not accounting for an impressive development portfolio (and or assets in care & maintenance), I see PAAS as one of the sector’s best buy-the-dip candidates, and I would view pullbacks below US$17.10 as buying opportunities.
Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM)
Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) is a $23.0 billion company in the precious metals space and is arguably the premier way to play the silver sector.
This is because it boasts scale, capital discipline, and diversification, with its President and CEO, Randy Smallwood, being involved in the founding of WPM as its EVP of Corporate Development.
Since it was founded in 2007, Wheaton Precious Metals has seen its revenue increase from $160 million to ~$1.1 billion, and the company should see a record year in 2024 with the potential to generate revenue of $1.35 billion and over $700 million in free cash flow.
Looking at the FY2024 free cash flow estimates (~$700 million) and its current market cap, many investors may quickly jump to the conclusion that WPM is very expensive, with it trading at more than 30x free cash flow.
However, this is a superior business model to producers with considerable leverage in a rising metals price environment, and the company is sitting on one of the strongest balance sheets sector-wide with nearly $1.0 billion in cash.
The reason for its superiority vs. producers is that Wheaton Precious metals does not actually produce metals, it instead makes an upfront payment in exchange for the right to purchase a portion of production over the life of mine of its partner’s assets.
For example, WPM has the right to buy 50% of silver produced at Cozamin for a payment of just 10% of the spot price ($2.50/oz at a $25.00/oz silver price).
The benefits to this business model is that Wheaton Precious Metals is insulated from inflation on operating costs as well as capex inflation, and it is much more diversified than the average producer with streams on over thirty assets globally.
Based on what I believe to be a fair multiple of 28.0x cash flow and FY2024 cash flow per share estimates of $2.10, I see a fair value for WPM of $58.80, translating to over 17% upside from current levels.

However, this fair value could rise to north of $65.00 per share if metals prices continue their upward trajectory, and these cash flow per share estimates do not include new projects set to come online in 2025 with WPM being one of the better growth stories in the royalty/streaming space.
So, with a diversified portfolio, an experienced team and upwards of $2.5 billion in liquidity to scoop up new streams, I see WPM as one of the safest ways to play the sector.
That said, I see the ideal buy zone being $42.00 or lower, meaning that the best way to play the stock is to wait for a correction.
Several precious metals stocks have rallied sharply over the past few months, but the key is separating the wheat from the chaff.
And while many might seem to have solid growth stories, the track records in the sector are dismal at best and there are only a few names that are truly investable.
So, for investors looking for silver exposure, I see PAAS and WPM as two of the best names to buy on dips.
That said, both stocks have seen strong runs, so while they belong at the top of one’s watchlist, I would be waiting for a sharp pullback to start a new position.
Taylor DartINO.com Contributor
Disclaimer: This article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. Taylor Dart is not a Registered Investment Advisor or Financial Planner. This writing is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation to buy, or a recommendation regarding any securities transaction. The information contained in this writing should not be construed as financial or investment advice on any subject matter. Taylor Dart expressly disclaims all liability in respect to actions taken based on any or all of the information in this writing. Given the volatility in the precious metals sector, position sizing is critical, so when buying small-cap precious metals stocks, position sizes should be limited to 5% or less of one’s portfolio.

Over the past year the Federal Reserve has driven up interest rates by nearly 500 basis points in its quest to try to tamp down inflation.
From a range of 0.25%-0.50% back on March 17, 2022, the Fed since then has steadily raised its target for its benchmark federal funds rate to 4.75%-5.00%, with the possibility of more to come. Over that time the Fed has raised rates nine times—four times by 75 basis points, twice by 50 bps, and three times by 25 bps.
At its two most recent meetings, in February and March, the Fed raised rates by only 25 bps each, possibly because it saw fit to take a slight pause and measure the effect of all these rate increases to see if they are having the desired effect of slowing the economy in order to bring down inflation.
Of course, as we know, the rate hikes haven’t done a whole lot in reining in inflation.

Rather, they created a panic among some fairly large regional banks that has unsettled the entire banking industry, the effect of which has done more to slow the economy than raising rates has done.
Should the Fed then say that the ends justify the means, even if the means—creating the panic—were totally accidental? Should the Fed now brand its “policy normalization” program a success even if a couple of banks failed in the process? Let’s hope not.
This fiasco does call attention to the other prong of that normalization process, namely a reduction in the Fed’s massive balance sheet, which was supposed to help raise long-term interest rates gradually and lessen the Fed’s presence in the U.S. economy.
On that score, there has been negligible progress.
Back in the good old days, before the 2008 financial crisis, the Fed’s balance sheet never totaled more than $1 trillion, a figure that now looks fairly quaint, yet it was a mere 15 years ago.  
Then, of course, Lehman Brothers failed, residential real estate prices crashed, millions of people lost their homes, and the Fed in just a few weeks had pumped enough money into the economy to raise its balance sheet to more than $2 trillion by the end of that year.
But that was only the beginning. Over the next several years, as the economy had trouble growing more than 1% a year, the Fed more than doubled its government and mortgage bond portfolio to more than $4 trillion. Then came the Covid-19 shutdown, and between February 2020 and the middle of last year the balance sheet had more than doubled again, to just under $9 trillion, at which time the Fed said it would start trimming it.
While the balance sheet has indeed come down, it’s certainly debatable if enough progress has been made on this score. Indeed, just as the Fed started to make some minimal progress in reducing its portfolio, it has started to increase it again.
The balance sheet hit a peak of just under $9 trillion last July, at which point it started to recede gradually, falling to $8.3 trillion early last month.
But then guess what happened? The Fed found itself blindsided by the SVB banking crisis it had largely created itself, had to pump more money into the economy to calm nervous depositors and investors, and before you knew it the balance sheet was back up to $8.7 trillion by the end of the month.
So, while the Fed has squarely focused all of its vaunted “tools” on raising short-term interest rates, it hasn’t made any commensurate progress on raising long-term rates by reducing its balance sheet.
Indeed, it appears to be artificially “propping down” long-term rates by insisting on having such a gigantic bond portfolio, which continues to distort conditions in the bond market.
If the Fed was as serious as it claims to be in “normalizing” interest rates, it could do a lot more. But then it probably would trigger another crisis and have to intervene in the markets yet again.

The Fed’s next monetary policy meeting is scheduled for May 2-3. Right now it’s difficult to bet what its next move will be.
Some expect another 25 bp hike, some believe the Fed will stand pat and make no change, while still others are hoping the Fed will “pivot” and actually lower rates if there is enough evidence that its previous rate hikes have finally put a meaningful dent in inflation.
I think that’s a little too much wishful thinking, and would not be surprised by another 25 bp hike.
However, what would be welcome would be some kind of announcement that the Fed is taking a closer look at putting a significant dent in its balance sheet.
With long-term Treasury bond yields so low, it’s doubtful that such a policy move would unsettle the markets too much. But it might have an impact on raising long-term rates, thereby reducing inflation while guiding the economy to a soft landing.
George YacikINO.com Contributor
Disclosure: This article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. This contributor is not receiving compensation (other than from INO.com) for their opinion.

Editor’s Note: Our experts here at INO.com cover a lot of investing topics and great stocks every week. To help you make sense of it all, every Wednesday we’re going to pick one of those stocks and use Magnifi Personal to compare it with its peers or competitors. Here we go…

Investors are betting on further increases in the price of gold after it touched a 12-month high in late March.
The reasons are twofold: first, the Federal Reserve’s cycle of interest rate rises appears to be over (despite oil rising again), and second, gold makes for a safe haven during banking sector turmoil.
Aakash Doshi, head of commodities for North America at Citigroup, told the Financial Times there had been a surge in investor activity in recent weeks. “The big catalyst has been the stress in the regional banking system in the U.S.… [and] it has been pretty much one-directional buying,” he said.
March was set to be the first month of net inflows into gold ETFs for 10 months. In addition, the volume of bullish options bets tied to gold funds has approached record levels.
Call options are a bullish bet that give investors the right to buy assets at a set price at a later date. By late March, the five-day rolling volume of call options on the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) had surged more than five-fold since the start of the month.
There was a similar increase in interest in CME’s gold futures and options tied to them, including deep “out-of-the-money” options, which would only pay out if the gold price hits new all-time highs.
And it’s not smaller investors or speculators jumping onto the gold bandwagon. Over the past few years, a key source of demand has been central bank buying. Between 2020 and 2022, central bank purchases went up 4.5 times!
Financial advisors sometimes recommend having some gold as an insurance policy against financial markets calamities.
So, let’s say you do want to add some gold to your portfolio. Then you face the choice between whether to go with a physical gold ETF or with an ETF that focuses on gold stocks.
Our colleague Serge Berger discussed this recently — is physical gold better, or gold stocks?
We thought we’d do a comparison of the two ETFs Serge talked about — the aforementioned GLD and the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX). The quick and easy way to do this is to ask Magnifi Personal to run the comparison. It’s as simple as asking this investing AI to “Compare GLD to GDX.”

This is an example of a response using Magnifi Personal. This image is not a recommendation or individual advice. Please see bottom disclaimer for additional information, including INO.com’s relationship with Magnifi.
As you can see, over three years GDX is (not surprisingly) more volatile, but its returns are greater than for GLD. So, it looks to be a wash. Just make sure you have some monies in gold for protection.
This is just a starting point, of course. Magnifi Personal can easily compare several stocks or ETFs on more criteria, such as dividend payments, turnover, volume, and so on. Magnifi Personal makes research like this as simple as typing in a question.
To have Magnifi Personal run similar comparisons for you, or to dive deeper into this one and compare the two Gold stocks using different criteria, click here.
This ability to have an investing AI pore over reams of data for you in seconds and spit out an easy-to-understand comparison of two or more stocks is an invaluable tool in deciding where to invest next.
We recommend you try it out. Click here to see how.
Latest from Magnifi Learn: Financial literacy is a fundamental aspect of wealth management and security. Since April is Financial Literacy Month, we’ve decided to devote today’s segment entirely to the topic!

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On 6th of April, the U.S. Department of the Treasury published the 2023 DeFi Illicit Finance Risk Assessment, the first illicit finance risk assessment conducted on decentralized finance (DeFi) in the world. The assessment considers risks associated with what are commonly called DeFi services.
The document is 42 pages long. This report looks at how criminals are using DeFi services to move and hide money illegally. DeFi services use technology called blockchain and smart contracts to allow people to make transactions without banks or other financial institutions.
However, many DeFi services are not following the rules meant to stop money laundering and financing terrorism. Some DeFi services are trying to avoid these rules by claiming to be fully decentralized, but this doesn’t excuse them from following the rules.
The report recommends improving the rules and regulations for DeFi services to make sure they follow the laws and don’t help criminals.

The cryptocurrency market may face regulatory scrutiny as authorities look to increase oversight on digital assets, so be informed and prepared for real bombshells in the not so distant future.

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I would love to see your comments on this news.
Let me update some crypto charts to snapshot what’s going there. The comparison chart of major cryptos vs. the market follows below.
Source: TradingView
The primary cryptocurrency, BTC (orange line), has outperformed both the second-largest cryptocurrency, ETH (black line), and the overall cryptocurrency market excluding BTC and ETH (blue line) year-to-date. It has gained almost 68% compared to 54% for the second largest crypto (ETH) and only 28% for the total crypto market excluding BTC and ETH.
It appears that the cryptocurrency market has matured over time, with various scams and market busts occurring, as well as new cryptocurrencies emerging and then fading away.
However, two of the original cryptocurrencies, BTC and ETH, continue to remain strong and dominant. Despite the growth of these major players, the rest of the market seems to have reached a plateau, with less trust in the market as indicated by the flatness of the blue line.
The dominance chart is the next.
Source: TradingView
The chart clearly shows that the main coin has made significant progress in terms of market share, hitting a peak of 48% in July 2021.
The next barrier to overcome is the middle of the range at 57%, which could further solidify its position as the trusted “first child” of the crypto market.
On the other hand, Ethereum’s market dominance has remained flat at 20%, with little movement over the past two years.
The final chart depicts the total crypto market below.
Source: TradingView
The total crypto market cap, which is currently slightly above $1.1 trillion, has been showing small volatility for the past three months around the strong barrier close to $1.2 trillion. Although the cap recently tested this mark again, it has remained unbroken so far.

We can observe a similar scenario that occurred last August, where the market faced a strong resistance near the $1.2 trillion mark, which eventually led to a rejection and a collapse in the crypto market cap.
However, the current situation is the second attempt to break this barrier, and if successful, the market could potentially double to reach $2.2 trillion. This level is significant as it intersects with the top of the Right Shoulder of the former Head & Shoulders pattern (blue dotted line) and the broken Neckline (purple dashed line).
On the downside, there is a limited risk as the market has established a double valley at $727 billion, which acted as the lows of 2022.

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Intelligent trades!
Aibek BurabayevINO.com Contributor
Disclosure: This contributor has no positions in any stocks mentioned in this article. This article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. This contributor is not receiving compensation (other than from INO.com) for their opinion.

When ChatGPT hit the scene a few months back, the rip-roaring rally for anything artificial intelligence related was on.
Fast forward to today, and said rally has flamed out rather quickly. Not only have the artificial intelligence-related stocks begun to give back their gains received during the rally, but there is a national backlash swirling across the US.
In Washington, both Congress and the President are questioning whether artificial intelligence is a good thing. President Biden recently said, “Technology companies have a responsibility to make sure their products are safe before making them public.” He was asked if AI was dangerous and responded, “It remains to be seen. Could be.”
Even Congress is looking into AI and its safety. A nonbinding measure was recently introduced by Rep. Ted Lieu, D-Calif., which will direct the house to look into artificial intelligence.

Interestingly enough, the bill was actually written by the chatbot ChatGPT, which really put AI in the spotlight.
ChatGPT became a household name and really started the AI rally on Wall Street after it was announced the popular website BuzzFeed was planning to use the chatbot to write articles and create content. This occurred on January 26th, 2023. AI technology began to come under fire at the end of March, early April 2023.
Although, even at the beginning of the ChatGPT explosion, some experts and journalists were already calling out ChatGPT for returning historically inaccurate information when asked basic questions. These mistakes raised concerns, even during the beginning of the AI hype, about how trustworthy artificially intelligent machines’ answers would be.
The answer is only as reliable as where the answers are originally coming from.
See, the way ChatGPT and other chatbots work is that they just pull data from one place on the internet and give it to you in the form of an answer or article. Think of it like a Google search, but the answer is more specific, and there are only one, not thousands, for you to choose from.
And there lies the problem.
With an AI chatbot, we all want it to be correct with each and every answer. But how does it know the correct answer when it’s pulling data from sources that aren’t always correct?
Furthermore, what is even more freighting is if someone else wants the chatbot to give you an incorrect answer. Or perhaps even worse, someone wants to manipulate the way you think and your beliefs using a chatbot. The way people say Russians or others manipulated US elections using social media platforms.
There are a lot of things to consider when it comes to artificial intelligence projects and how safe they truly are at this time and will continue to be in the future.
However, at this point, Pandora’s box is open, so it’s hard to see a future without AI in some form or fashion. With that being said, let’s look at a few exchange traded funds that you can buy now, while you wait for AI to dominate the world!
The first one I would like to point out is the ARK Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF (ARKQ). This fund invests in several different futuristic technologies, making it good for any investor.
While you wait for AI technology to explode, ARKQ’s holdings in autonomous driving or some other innovative technology may take off. The infamous Kathy Woods runs the fund, and despite her poor performance in recent times, she has a proven track record over the years.
A few of the other ETFs are the Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF (BOTZ), the iShares Robotics and Artificial Intelligence Multisector ETF (IRBO), and the First Trust Nasdaq Artificial Intelligence and Robotics ETF (ROBT).

While the ARKQ ETF is focused on several different innovative technologies, AI being one of them, along with robotics, these three focus solely on AI and robotics. From a performance standpoint, all four ETFs are up double digits year-to-date. ARKQ and BOTZ have 37 and 44 holdings, respectively, while IRBO and ROBT have 119 and 112, respectively.
ARKQ is also the most expensive fund at 0.75% expense ratio, while BOTZ charges 0.69%, IRBO is the cheapest at 0.47%, and ROBT charges 0.65%. BOTZ is the largest fund with $1.75 billion under management, ARKQ is second with $922 million, then IRBO with $303 million, and ROBT with $237 million.
The biggest question you need to ask yourself is whether or not today is the best time to buy any AI-related stock. AI had its rally in late January, and now it’s getting hit. So is today the best time to buy, or will prices fall in the future, giving you a better buying opportunity?
I honestly don’t know. But, what I am sure of, is that AI technology is here to stay, and at some point, you should own some companies that operate in the AI space.
Leave me your thoughts below about whether today is a time to buy or wait on AI stocks.
Matt ThalmanINO.com ContributorFollow me on Twitter @mthalman5513
Disclosure: This contributor did not hold a position in any investment mentioned above at the time this blog post was published. This article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. This contributor is not receiving compensation (other than from INO.com) for their opinion.

It’s been a solid year so far for the major market averages, with the market up 7% year-to-date, a solid rebound after what was a brutal year in 2022.
However, the small-cap universe hasn’t fared nearly as well, with the Russell 2000 Index (IWM) barely in positive territory.
I attribute some of this underperformance to the relatively high weighting of regional banks in the index, which were hit hard following fears of bank runs.
Fortunately, this underperformance has left some small-cap names trading at deep discounts to fair value, and one has been stuck in the mud despite the significant metals price increases in the precious metals sector.
In this update, we’ll look at two small-cap names becoming more reasonably valued, and where I see their ideal buy zones.

Buckle Inc. (BKE)
Buckle Inc. (BKE) is a $1.7 billion company in the Retail-Apparel industry group that was one of the market’s best performers last year as it raced towards its multi-year highs near $50.00 per share.
However, the stock has since pulled back over 30% from its highs, and found itself back near key support at the $30.00 level.
For those unfamiliar, Buckle has over 440 stores in the United States and specializes in jeans, other apparel, footwear, and accessories.
The company released its Q4 2022 results (three months ended January 28th) last month and reported net sales up 5.5% year-over-year to $401.8 million. Meanwhile, quarterly earnings per share were up 3% to $1.78, while full-year EPS came in at $5.13, down just 1% from the year-ago period.
Despite this performance being impressive given the sharp decline in earnings we saw from several other retail names, the focus appeared to be on the weaker than hoped February sales numbers, with Buckle reporting a 6.9% decline in comparable sales.
However, it’s important to note that the company was lapping near very tough comps with a 33% increase in the February 2022 period.
Plus, commentary on the Q4 Call was not bad as Buckle noted in its prepared remarks that it is managing inventory well, it continues to work on store remodels and technology upgrades, and it plans to open six new stores in FY2023, pushing its total closer to 450 stores.
Just as importantly, Buckle continues to benefit from full-priced selling with minimal promotional activity, a positive sign relative to some peers which have had to liquidate inventory to make up for misjudging consumer demand last year.
Unfortunately, annual EPS is forecasted to decline this year slightly after it nearly doubled from FY2020/FY2021 levels, with current FY2023 estimates sitting at $4.85, translating to a 6% decline year-over-year.
While this isn’t ideal, and it’s often best to stay away from stocks that have seen peak EPS and it’s now rolling over, Buckle is currently trading at just ~7.1x forward estimates and that’s not including ~$290 million in cash ($5.80) and over $340 million returned to shareholders last year.
So, with industry-leading shareholder returns (regular dividends and special dividends), a significant discount to its historical multiple (7.1x earnings vs. 11x earnings), and a strong balance sheet, I would view any pullbacks below $31.60 as buying opportunities. Even using a lower multiple of 9.0x earnings, I see a fair value for the stock of $43.65.
Gold Royalty Corporation (GROY)
Gold Royalty Corporation (GROY) is one of the more newly listed names in the precious metals market, having had its IPO debut in Q1 2021 during a difficult period for the Gold Miners Index (GDX).
The stock has since sunk over 70% from its highs above $6.60 per share, a decline that has shaved more than $400 million in market cap off the stock.
However, I see this decline and underperformance having more to do with the stock being overvalued post-IPO debut because of high interest in a new royalty/streaming company available to invest in, and less to do with its fundamentals.
In fact, royalty/streaming companies have never been more attractive from an investment standpoint for investors looking to increase their exposure to precious metals given that the inflationary environment has eroded the profits of many producers.
However, royalty/streaming companies like Gold Royalty Corporation have net profit interests [NPI] or net smelter returns [NSR] on several mine projections, insulating them from inflation on operating costs and capital expenditures.
Meanwhile, they are lower-risk given that they’re more diversified than operators, with Gold Royalty Corporation having over 200 royalty assets and five in production, with the latter figure likely to increase to closer to 15 by 2029.
To put this in comparison, even the larger gold producers typically have less than 8 gold mines and they have seen margin compression because of rising labor and consumable costs, meaning that royalty companies provide exposure to gold and silver without the risk of inflation.
In Gold Royalty’s case, the company has two cornerstone assets held by the #2 and #3 largest gold producers, with these assets being the Ren deposit and Odyssey Underground in Ontario and Quebec (Canada), respectively.
The royalty ground on each mine could ultimately have over 5.0 million ounces of gold combined attributable gold, translating to over $200 million in future revenue from these two assets alone. Hence, if this weakness persists, I would view GROY as a potential takeover target.

Based on ~166 million fully diluted shares and a share price of US$2.15, Gold Royalty Corporation has a market cap of US$357 million, which might make it look expensive at first glance given that it expects to generate just ~$6.0 in revenue this year, leaving it trading at nearly 60x sales.
However, FY2023 revenue doesn’t do the company justice, with it having multiple assets not yet in production that could become significant contributors post-2025. Meanwhile, revenue should increase materially in 2024, with commercial production at Cote in Ontario and Odyssey in Quebec.
Given the significant upside that isn’t reflected in the company’s current financial results (as it has development stage assets that should head into production by 2025), I believe the best way to value the company is on a P/NAV basis.
Using what I believe to be a fair multiple of 1.0x NAV and an estimated net asset value of $510 million, I see a fair value for the stock of $490 million; I see a fair value for the stock of US$3.05. This translates to over 40% upside from current levels, and investors also receive an attractive ~2.0% dividend yield. So, for investors looking for exposure to gold, I see GROY as a Buy if it drops below US$2.00.
Disclosure: I am long GROY
Taylor DartINO.com Contributor
Disclaimer: This article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. Taylor Dart is not a Registered Investment Advisor or Financial Planner. This writing is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation to buy, or a recommendation regarding any securities transaction. The information contained in this writing should not be construed as financial or investment advice on any subject matter. Taylor Dart expressly disclaims all liability in respect to actions taken based on any or all of the information in this writing. Given the volatility in the precious metals sector, position sizing is critical, so when buying small-cap precious metals stocks, position sizes should be limited to 5% or less of one’s portfolio.

Editor’s Note: Our experts here at INO.com cover a lot of investing topics and great stocks every week. To help you make sense of it all, every Wednesday we’re going to pick one of those stocks and use Magnifi Personal to compare it with its peers or competitors. Here we go…

According to recent reports, the World Health Organization (WHO) may for the first time include drugs that combat obesity on its “essential medicines list,” which is used to guide government purchasing decisions in low- and middle-income countries.
This will only add to the buzz around these drugs, which is approaching the levels surrounding artificial intelligence (AI) and chatbots like GPT-4.
Despite the hype, we believe investors are right to be excited about the drugs.
These drugs will find a quickly growing market from expanding waistlines. That’s because obesity is growing in tandem with rising global prosperity. A bad side effect of prosperity is that consumption of not-so-healthy foods rises a lot, as does the prevalence of occupations requiring less physical work.
Obesity already affects about 650 million people around the world. America’s waistline is among those rapidly expanding—almost half of Americans will be obese by 2030, a Harvard study found. It also estimated that about 18% of healthcare spending would then go to related conditions of obesity.
No wonder, then, that Morgan Stanley thinks the market for weight-management medicines could reach $54 billion in just seven years—with $31.5 billion of this from the U.S. alone.
Companies behind the new obesity drug treatments are flying high:
Novo Nordisk (NVO) — the dominant player in diabetes treatments — generated $2.4 billion in sales from obesity treatments last year. And it has barely started to widely distribute its new obesity drug, Wegovy. Its shares are up 43% over the past year, and 15% year-to-date.
Eli Lilly (LLY), whose diabetes drug, tirzepatide, should get regulatory approval to treat weight loss this year, has seen its stock price rise 17.5% over the last year, although it is down 7% year-to-date.
So, we thought we’d do a comparison of the companies. The easiest way to do that is to ask Magnifi Personal to do it for us. It’s as simple as asking this investing AI to “Compare NVO to LLY” and selecting a three-year timeframe.
You can do it, too. Want a 90-day free trial? Just click here.
Here’s the result:

This is an example of a response using Magnifi Personal. This image is not a recommendation or individual advice. Please see bottom disclaimer for additional information, including INO.com’s relationship with Magnifi.
As you can see, over three years, NVO comes out on top in terms of both returns and volatility.
This ability to have an investing AI pore over reams of data for you in seconds and spit out an easy-to-understand comparison of two or more stocks is an invaluable tool in deciding where to invest next.
We recommend you try it out. Click here to see how.
Magnifi Personal makes research like this as simple as typing a question. You can easily do this yourself, or ask Magnifi Personal to add other measures to the comparison, including dividend, valuation metrics such as P/E or P/B ratios, gross margin, and more. Just click here to get a free trial!
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Last month, I presented three potential scenarios for the future price of gold in an earlier Gold Update.
In the poll, most of you chose the green path, which suggested an extended period of consolidation for the yellow metal. However, it appears that the blue (straight bullish) and black (similar to the pattern observed in 2017) paths are more accurate, as the green path is no longer viable.
Source: TradingView
In just two weeks since the last update, the price of gold futures has increased by $160 or nearly 9%, reaching a high of $2,015 on March 20th. This surge in price caused the previous top at the blue B point of $1,975 to be broken, but the price has since been consolidating around this level.

The price of gold futures has formed a triangle pattern (purple) characterized by falling peaks amid rising valleys. The size of the pattern is relatively small, and last week, the price attempted to break out of the pattern to the upside but was unsuccessful.
As a result, the upside potential of the move may be limited due to the small amplitude of the pattern.
Based on the black dashed uptrend channel, the resistance around $2,100 could limit the upside potential for gold futures.
The black path, which is based on a 2017 sample, suggests that the move to the upside may reach up to 73% of AB move. To illustrate this, 73% of AB move has been added to the chart, and it is located at $2,072, which is slightly below the uptrend’s resistance around $2,100.
In order for the price of gold futures to continue its bullish momentum, it will need to break through the double barrier mentioned earlier. This will clear the path for the blue target of $2,170.
However, if the triangle pattern breaks down, it could trigger a bearish move and lead to a test of the downside of the uptrend at around $1,870. It remains to be seen which path gold will take in the coming days and weeks.

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Back in November 2022, I identified a bearish Head & Shoulders pattern in Tesla’s chart in my post titled “These Stocks Are Falling Knives”.
At the time, the stock was priced at $207, and I predicted a bearish movement. The majority of readers chose the conservative target of $120, which turned out to be the closest call as the stock hit a valley of $102 in January of this year. Congratulations with a huge gain.
The tables have turned, as can be seen in the following weekly chart of Tesla’s stock.
Source: TradingView
The stock price has experienced a sharp reversal, forming a V-shape pattern after reaching a low point of $102 at the beginning of the year. The Tesla price has approached the earlier broken Neckline (gray dotted trendline) of the Head & Shoulders pattern in the middle of February, but at that time, a test and breakout were not detected.

Instead, the price experienced a sharp drop from the top of $218 down to $164, retracing about half of the gains from the earlier valley.
As of now, the Tesla stock price is experiencing a strong bullish momentum, with it already surpassing the $200 handle once again. However, this time the Neckline barrier is stronger with the presence of the moving average (purple) at around $227. In order for the market to clear the path to the first bullish target of $314, the price needs to overcome this reinforced barrier.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently indicating a bullish trend as it has crossed above the key level of 50 and is continuing to move higher. This is a positive sign for the stock and suggests that the buying pressure is gaining momentum.
The support level for Tesla is now at $164, while the ultimate target is the all-time high of $414.

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Intelligent trades!
Aibek BurabayevINO.com Contributor
Disclosure: This contributor has no positions in any stocks mentioned in this article. This article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. This contributor is not receiving compensation (other than from INO.com) for their opinion.

Please enjoy this updated version of weekly commentary from the Reitmeister Total Return newsletter. Steve Reitmeister is the CEO of StockNews.com and Editor of the Reitmeister Total Return.
Click Here to learn more about Reitmeister Total Return

By far the most popular article I have written in years was from last week because it crystalized what so many of us are feeling. Here it is again:
The WORST Stock Market Ever!
Unfortunately, everything said then is just as true now. That being that the only trend is NO trend. And that is true even after a few solid days in the plus column.
Gladly, we can add a few key updates to help us plot our trading plan for the days ahead. That is what is in store in this week’s commentary below…
Market Commentary
Let’s start with a helpful analogy that will frame our discussion today. And that is to appreciate that the stock market is quite similar to a helium balloon.
Meaning that its natural state is to float higher unless it is being held down by a stronger, negative force that pushes it lower.
Please read that again so it sinks in.
Now if we pull back to the big picture, we can easily appreciate that state of floating higher is true because 85-90% of investment history is framed by bullish conditions where going up is more likely than going down. However, we find this picture to also to be the case during bear markets when negative events are removed.
Consider the start of the year…how the market climbed day by day in January. Perhaps it was because there was really nothing negative to hold stocks down.
Next comes February with an increase in hawkish rhetoric from the Fed which starts to reign in some of the early enthusiasm. Next comes about concerns of a potential banking crisis and stocks get pushed down lower and lower on each wave of negative headlines.
This had stocks giving back all the 2023 gains by mid March with a closing low of 3,855 stocks. Amazingly from there we have gotten served up a +6.6% rally for the S&P 500 (SPY) to where we stand today.
Was it because of something positive?
No…just the lack of more negatives to hold down stocks. That’s all it took for them to float higher once again.
Now let’s start looking ahead. Because if we can clearly see if there are more negatives or positives ahead…then we can appreciate where the balloon (stock market) goes next.
I spent some time researching economic forecasts from a variety of sources. Sill 60% of them are calling for a recession forming in 2023 leading to a deeper bear market.
Most of the other 40% are not really calling for a gangbuster growing economy. They see it more in the stagnant growth category.
Stagnant is not exactly bullish my friends. Nor is it bearish. It would most likely equate to a continuation of the activity we have seen so far in 2023. That being range bound with unsettling volatility.
I wanted to share 2 of the forecasts I found most interesting starting with the Conference Board which provides a pretty typical recessionary call. They see the bad times starting in Q2 of this year with -0.9% GDP getting worse in Q3 at -1.8% followed by -0.6% in Q4 before things improve next year.
Yes, they see inflation coming down which is what the Fed was hoping to accomplish. Unfortunately employment also cracks and doesn’t get better til the middle of 2024.
How accurate do I believe this to be?
Close enough because economic forecasts are highly difficult to dial in perfectly. The point being this is likely a fairly mild recession that should still be plenty harsh enough to get stocks to head 15-20% lower from here. And yes, the more painful the future recession… the more stocks would go down.
Now I want to turn our attention to some of the extreme views out there like the famed Jeremy Grantham talking about the bursting of an “everything bubble” that could lead to a 50% peak to valley decline for the S&P 500 (SPY).
However, lets remember that Jeremy Grantham is a perma-bear. And like a stopped watch he is only right twice a day… and amazingly wrong the rest of the time. So for as interesting as it may be to read outlooks like these, please do take them with a grain of salt.
In the short run, I expect stocks to remain in the same trading range we have seen all year long with a low of 3,855 and high of 4,200. Most every move in that range has proved to be meaningless noise not predictive of what comes next.
We will break above when more people are convinced that fears of recession are overblown. And we will break below if indeed the recession does come to town.
This is all to say that a focus on the fundamentals is still the key. Like paying attention to the slate of key economic reports next week like:
4/3 ISM Manufacturing
4/5 ISM Services
4/7 Government Employment (with focus on wage inflation)
And after that will be a focus on Q1 earnings season.
Will enough clues emerge in April to make us break one way or another?
Probably not UNLESS a new rash of banking failures emerge. That could create a Jenga moment for stocks to tumble lower as risk taking would go out the window.
At this moment I still believe odds of recession and deeper bear market are around 70%. This explains why I continue to manage my newsletter portfolios for that greater bearish possibility.
What To Do Next?
Watch my brand new presentation, REVISED: 2023 Stock Market Outlook
There I will cover vital issues such as…

5 Warnings Signs the Bear Returns Starting Now!
Banking Crisis Concerns Another Nail in the Coffin
How Low Will Stocks Go?
7 Timely Trades to Profit on the Way Down
Plan to Bottom Fish for Next Bull Market
2 Trades with 100%+ Upside Potential as New Bull Emerges
And Much More!

If these ideas concern you, then please click below to access this vital presentation now:
REVISED: 2023 Stock Market Outlook >
Wishing you a world of investment success!
Steve Reitmeister… but everyone calls me Reity (pronounced “Righty”)CEO, StockNews.com & Editor, Reitmeister Total Return

About the Author
Steve is better known to the StockNews audience as “Reity”. Not only is he the CEO of the firm, but he also shares his 40 years of investment experience in the Reitmeister Total Return portfolio. Learn more about Reity’s background, along with links to his most recent articles and stock picks.

At the end of March, interest rates now sit at 6.32% average across the country for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage. While this is lower than a few weeks ago, they are still much higher than a year ago.
The cause is that the Federal Reserve has been raising rates aggressively over the last year to fight persistently high inflation. The Fed’s goal of raising rates is to slow the economy and bring inflation back down to a normalized level or target goal of 2%.
Raising rates makes large capital expenditures for businesses or individual households more expensive, thus creating a situation where it is no longer affordable or makes good business sense to make those investments.
Fewer large investments or fewer new homes being built because the financing costs of making those purchases are too high will eventually slow the economy and thus bring inflation down.

While we all want inflation to come down quickly, it takes time for high-interest rates to flow through the system and change business leaders’ and households’ decision-making.
Furthermore, there is a rather big delay with the economic data that tells us how the economy is performing and whether or not large investments, home purchases, and overall spending is slowing.
This all means that when we realize business leaders-consumers have changed their minds about what investments and purchases are worth making, the economy is already slipping.
If we now look strictly at the household side of the equation, it seems clear that this group is heading toward tough times in the not-so-distant future, thus making the idea of a new home purchase much less likely.
First, we have high inflation. This is making everything across the board more expensive. Consumers’ average cost of living is increasing, whether it be groceries, child care, transportation, or clothing.
Then we have higher interest rates on top of those higher daily living costs. This is making a new mortgage more expensive.
And finally, we throw in the fact that consumer debt is now at all-time highs. These combined factors paint a bleak picture of a strong housing market in the near term.
Although, if we look at the exchange-traded funds focusing on home builders, they are up 10% or more year-to-date, while the S&P 500 is up less than 4%.
I believe this is an opportunity for investors to get ahead of the curve and short the home builders before we see definitive data that indicates the economy and housing market is beginning to struggle.
A few of the basic, non-leveraged ETFs that you could short are the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB), the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB), or the Invesco Dynamic Building & Construction ETF (PKB). You could open a short position in any of these funds or buy put options on them.
If you want to get more aggressive, you could short or buy put options on either the Direxion Daily Homebuilders & Supplies Bull 3X Shares ETF (NAIL) or even the Direxion Daily Real Estate 3X Shares ETF (DRN). These are both three times leveraged to the upside. So if you short them, and they decline in price, you would be getting three times as large of a move. However, this does add to your risk.
If you are uncomfortable with open short positions or buying options, you could also buy the Direxion Daily Real Estate Bear 3X Shares ETF (DRV), which is three times leveraged to the downside of the real estate industry.
The downside is that DRV is more of a real estate ETF than directly focusing on the housing industry. So, if the housing industry does turn negative, you may not realize the lion’s shares of the move lower.

Regardless though of whether you directly short the homebuilding ETFs, use options, or play the leveraged homebuilding ETFs, there is a lot of risk with this trade.
First, you are shorting the industry that has not yet shown real signs that it is cracking.
Second, it may take months for data to show that this is a smart trade today.
And finally, you are shorting stocks, thus limiting the upside to your investment but opening yourself up to a lot more risk.
This is not a trade for everyone, and by no means is this a ‘for sure’ type of trade. It is a trade based on many assumptions about the consumer’s overall health at this time and where they may be in a few months.
Ensure you fully understand what your risk is before making any decisions.
Matt ThalmanINO.com ContributorFollow me on Twitter @mthalman5513
Disclosure: This contributor did not hold a position in any investment mentioned above at the time this blog post was published. This article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. This contributor is not receiving compensation (other than from INO.com) for their opinion.