When we asked this question at the beginning of November, the responses were soundly in favor of “below.”
But a lot has changed since then, including Powell signaling that we’ll only see a 50-bps rate hike this week. At Friday’s close, the S&P 500 was sitting slightly above 3,900.
Does the index stand any chance at staying above 3,800 before the year wraps up? Will Santa Claus deliver on his usual year-end rally? Or will we see a 3.5% decline in the last two weeks of the month?
On December 31, will the S&P 500 close above 3,800… or below?

Above or below? Make your pick in today’s poll!
